External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Primary condo transactions in Hanoi and HCMC ended 2024 with a strong Q4 performance. </li><li>Based on our estimates from CBRE data charts, Q4 2024 primary condo transactions in Hanoi and HCMC combined were ~14,200 units (+43% QoQ and +150% YoY).</li><li>Hanoi recorded new supply of 11,900 units in Q4 2024 – the highest quarterly figure since 2019 – mainly from new launches from Masterise and MIK in Global Gate, and Capitaland’s The Senique in Ocean Park 1.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Primary condo transactions in Hanoi and HCMC ended 2024 with a strong Q4 performance. Based on our estimates from CBRE data charts, Q4 2024 primary condo transactions in Hanoi and HCMC combined were ~14,200 units (+43% QoQ and +150% YoY).Hanoi recorded new supply of 11,900 units in Q4 2024 – the highest quarterly figure since 2019 – mainly from new launches from Masterise and MIK in Global Gate, and Capitaland’s The Senique in Ocean Park 1.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vietnam Residential Real Estate Sector Flash - 2025 to Witness Increased Market Activities

<ul><li>New project preparations and launches have ramped up in 2024 YTD: The housing market in Vietnam bottomed out in 2023 and has since shown a gradual recovery in primary transactions, beginning in Q3 2023 and continuing throughout 2024 YTD, with the condo segment in Hanoi leading the recovery.</li><li>The rise in preparation activities for new project launches, along with ongoing improvement in homebuyer confidence in 2024 YTD, reaffirms our expectation for growth in primary property transactions in 2024F vs 2023.</li><li>We project market transactions to strengthen in Q4 2024 and 2025, led by our expectations for: (1) sustained demand for real living purposes, particularly targeting mid-end condo projects; (2) a return of investment buyers to select landed property products; (3) growth in new primary supply driven by more project launches and smoother legal procedures; and (4) improving homebuyer confidence, driven by the continuous recovery of the overall property market, a stable mortgage rate outlook, and the acceleration of key infrastructure development.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New project preparations and launches have ramped up in 2024 YTD: The housing market in Vietnam bottomed out in 2023 and has since shown a gradual recovery in primary transactions, beginning in Q3 2023 and continuing throughout 2024 YTD, with the condo segment in Hanoi leading the recovery.The rise in preparation activities for new project launches, along with ongoing improvement in homebuyer confidence in 2024 YTD, reaffirms our expectation for growth in primary property transactions in 2024F vs 2023.We project market transactions to strengthen in Q4 2024 and 2025, led by our expectations for: (1) sustained demand for real living purposes, particularly targeting mid-end condo projects; (2) a return of investment buyers to select landed property products; (3) growth in new primary supply driven by more project launches and smoother legal procedures; and (4) improving homebuyer confidence, driven by the continuous recovery of the overall property market, a stable mortgage rate outlook, and the acceleration of key infrastructure development.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vietnam Residential Real Estate Sector Flash - Market Transactions to Strengthen in Q4 2024 and 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Viettel Construction (CTR VN) and EVN Finance (EVF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a one-way trade of US$27m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>There will be over US$1m to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinhomes-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27079:1" rel="noopener">Vinhomes (VHM VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-for-foreign-trade-of-vietnam" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23054:1" rel="noopener">Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Viettel Construction (CTR VN) and EVN Finance (EVF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a one-way trade of US$27m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
There will be over US$1m to buy in Vinhomes (VHM VN), Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN) and Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN). 


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Other Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furuya-metal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5196:1" rel="noopener">Furuya Metal (7826 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a>'s current implied stub and simple ratio (Wilmar/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH)</a>) are both at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Reportedly, the mother and two sisters of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> Chairman Jay Y. Lee plan to sell shares in a block deal worth ~₩2.8tn ($2.1bn billion.</li>
</ul>



Furuya Metal (7826 JP) and Visional (4194 JP) are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024. 

Wilmar International (WIL SP)'s current implied stub and simple ratio (Wilmar/ Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH)) are both at all-time highs.
Reportedly, the mother and two sisters of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Chairman Jay Y. Lee plan to sell shares in a block deal worth ~₩2.8tn ($2.1bn billion.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Furuya Metal, Visional, Wilmar, Samsung Electronics, ViinFast/Vingroup

<ul>
<li>After de-SPACing last August, shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (VFS US)</a>, the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, went orbital, as discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/MYHnq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense</a>
</li>
<li>VinFast cratered shortly thereafter. But still trades at a hefty ~25x P/S, well above industry peers.</li>
<li>Last Friday VinFast announced it was replacing both its CEO and CFO. Not a great look five months after IPOing. Even less attractive is the incoming CEO is VinGroup's founder.</li>
</ul>


After de-SPACing last August, shares in VinFast (VFS US), the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), went orbital, as discussed in Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense

VinFast cratered shortly thereafter. But still trades at a hefty ~25x P/S, well above industry peers.
Last Friday VinFast announced it was replacing both its CEO and CFO. Not a great look five months after IPOing. Even less attractive is the incoming CEO is VinGroup's founder.


VinFast's Global Expansion As Shares Stall

Vietnam

Vingroup Joint Stock Company operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops apartments, malls, hotels and resorts, health care, educational, convention center, amusement parks, and entertainment properties. Vingroup serves customers worldwide.

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Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)

Vietnam Residential Real Estate Sector Flash - 2025 to Witness Increased Market Activities

Based on our estimates from CBRE data charts, Q4 2024 primary condo transactions in Hanoi and HCMC combined were ~14,200 units (+43% QoQ and +150%...

Vietcap

Vietnam Residential Real Estate Sector Flash - Market Transactions to Strengthen in Q4 2024 and 2025

The housing market in Vietnam bottomed out in 2023 and has since shown a gradual recovery in primary transactions, beginning in Q3 2023 and...

Vietcap

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Other Changes

Viettel Construction and EVN Finance will be added to the index at the close on 21 June. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Furuya Metal, Visional, Wilmar, Samsung Electronics, ViinFast/Vingroup

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

VinFast's Global Expansion As Shares Stall

IF Vingroup were to offload some of its stake in VinFast to increase the float, that could be a catalyst. I'd still be disinclined to invest in...

David Blennerhassett

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