TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Some updated thinking on our shorts: We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Well, safe as it ever gets. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while Disney we flip from long biased to short biased as Disney+ subscriber numbers have decelerated massively. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </div>

Some updated thinking on our shorts: We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Well, safe as it ever gets. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while Disney we flip from long biased to short biased as Disney+ subscriber numbers have decelerated massively. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Virgin Galactic Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This week, space launch company Virgin Galactic's funding woes escalated as emergency talks with potential investors fell through.</li><li>As a result, the company announced a staggering 85% workforce reduction and paused operations until further funding is secured.</li><li>Since going public in 2021 with a $3.7 billion valuation, Virgin Orbit's value has plummeted by 99% as of its last close, highlighting the realities of space investing.</li></ul>

This week, space launch company Virgin Galactic's funding woes escalated as emergency talks with potential investors fell through.As a result, the company announced a staggering 85% workforce reduction and paused operations until further funding is secured.Since going public in 2021 with a $3.7 billion valuation, Virgin Orbit's value has plummeted by 99% as of its last close, highlighting the realities of space investing.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Last year, markets were taken aback when medicare litigation firm MSP recovery announced that it was going public through a $32.6 billion SPAC merger.</li><li>The merger with Lionheart Acquisition II was the second-largest SPAC transaction at the time and was announced at a time when SPACs were booming.</li><li>However, the market has taken a turn for the worse since then, with SPAC sentiment at an all-time low, markets bracing for a recession, and regulators looking to clamp down on SPACs.</li></ul>

Last year, markets were taken aback when medicare litigation firm MSP recovery announced that it was going public through a $32.6 billion SPAC merger.The merger with Lionheart Acquisition II was the second-largest SPAC transaction at the time and was announced at a time when SPACs were booming.However, the market has taken a turn for the worse since then, with SPAC sentiment at an all-time low, markets bracing for a recession, and regulators looking to clamp down on SPACs.

What Happened to MSP Recovery’s $33 Billion Deal?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.</li>
<li>SPACs have thrived for the better part of the last eighteen months because it has filled a void for both investors and companies looking to raise capital.</li>
<li>Early Stage Companies also benefit from SPAC deals as they have access to a large pool of capital, can accelerate the process of going public, and even provide forward-looking guidance</li>
</ul>


We identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.
SPACs have thrived for the better part of the last eighteen months because it has filled a void for both investors and companies looking to raise capital.
Early Stage Companies also benefit from SPAC deals as they have access to a large pool of capital, can accelerate the process of going public, and even provide forward-looking guidance


President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Event-Driven

Although shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-galactic-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28221:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE US)</a> have fallen sharply from the highs set earlier this year, the shares may see continued pressure given operational disappointment and the lockup expiration of a large % of shares.

Although shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE US) have fallen sharply from the highs set earlier this year, the shares may see continued pressure given operational disappointment and the lockup expiration of a large % of shares.

Virgin Galactic (SPCE): Will Delays & Lockup Expiration Continue to Bring Shares Back to Earth?

United States

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. develops space vehicles. The Company designs exploration technology such as missiles, rockets, and other related equipment. Virgin Galactic Holdings serves customers in the United States.

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Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE US)

2H21 Obex Research Short Portfolio

We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while...

Aaron Gabin

Space Race Reality Check

This week, space launch company Virgin Galactic's funding woes escalated as emergency talks with potential investors fell through.

subSPAC

What Happened to MSP Recovery’s $33 Billion Deal?

Last year, markets were taken aback when medicare litigation firm MSP recovery announced that it was going public through a $32.6 billion SPAC merger.

subSPAC

Three SPAC Sectors to Look at in 2022

We identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact. SPACs have thrived for the better part of the last...

subSPAC

Virgin Galactic (SPCE): Will Delays & Lockup Expiration Continue to Bring Shares Back to Earth?

While shares of Virgin originally shot into space, the reality of gravity has set in, causing shares to come back to earth. A number of items may...

Robert C Prather Jr

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