Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 21st March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-money-uk-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22918:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Money UK (VUK AU/VMUK LN)</a>, UK's sixth largest retail bank, entered into a Scheme with Nationwide Building Society, at 220 pence/share, in cash.</li>
<li>The consideration is a solid 38% premium to undisturbed. And shareholders backed terms at the<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240523/pdf/063v45k7bl776c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 22nd May Court Meeting</a>. Plus UK's CMA signed off on the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240722/pdf/065sh1mr1c2vn9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">19th July</a>. </li>
<li>
What now? FCA/PRA approvals are the key remaining conditions. These regulatory approvals are imminent.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 21st March, Virgin Money UK (VUK AU/VMUK LN), UK's sixth largest retail bank, entered into a Scheme with Nationwide Building Society, at 220 pence/share, in cash.
The consideration is a solid 38% premium to undisturbed. And shareholders backed terms at the 22nd May Court Meeting. Plus UK's CMA signed off on the 19th July. 

What now? FCA/PRA approvals are the key remaining conditions. These regulatory approvals are imminent.


Nationwide/Virgin Money (VUK AU): At The Pointy End Of The Offer

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal</li>
<li>AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed</li>
<li>The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise</li>
</ul>


The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal
AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed
The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise


<ul>
<li>I tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-gaia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8339:1" rel="noopener">T Gaia (3738 JP)</a>'s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsegae-eng-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11972:1" rel="noopener">Shinsegae E&amp;C (034300 KS)</a> Tender Offers, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphb-capital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8540:1" rel="noopener">MPHB (MPHB MK)</a>'s SCR. Plus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASMPT (522 HK)</a> in the crosshairs. Again.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed this week: T Gaia (3738 JP)'s and Shinsegae E&amp;C (034300 KS) Tender Offers, and MPHB (MPHB MK)'s SCR. Plus ASMPT (522 HK) in the crosshairs. Again.
Key updates took place on: Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), and Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Descente, Shin Kong Financial, T Gaia, Shinsegae E&C, MPHB, Pacific Smiles

<ul>
<li>For the month of September 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn. </li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~43%. The average premium YTD is ~44%</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of September 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn. 
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~43%. The average premium YTD is ~44%
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2024: GTJA/Haitong Sec, Korea Zinc/YPP, Hotel Property, Virgin Money, Raysum

<ul>
<li>I tally 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nsl-ltd-singapore" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12666:1" rel="noopener">NSL Ltd (NSL SP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a> also susppended due to the Takeovers Code.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/platinum-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:914:1" rel="noopener">Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Xingda International (1899 HK) and NSL Ltd (NSL SP). Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) also susppended due to the Takeovers Code.
Key updates took place on: Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP), Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU), Fuji Soft (9749 JP), JTower (4485 JP), Arvida (ARV NZ), and Korea Zinc (010130 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Dyna Mac, Platinum Asset, Fuji Soft, JTower, Arvida, Korea Zinc, Sun Art

Australia

Virgin Money UK PLC provides financial services. The Company offers online mobile solutions such as banking and other related activities. Virgin Money UK serves customers in the United Kingdom.

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Virgin Money UK Plc (VUK AU)

Nationwide/Virgin Money (VUK AU): At The Pointy End Of The Offer

Done deal. Trading tight at a 1.8%, 1.9% gross spread for the UK, Aussie legs, assuming mid-Nov completion. If in, stay in. Or get involved on...

David Blennerhassett

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Descente, Shin Kong Financial, T Gaia, Shinsegae E&C, MPHB, Pacific Smiles

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2024: GTJA/Haitong Sec, Korea Zinc/YPP, Hotel Property, Virgin Money, Raysum

For the month of Sep, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$23bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Dyna Mac, Platinum Asset, Fuji Soft, JTower, Arvida, Korea Zinc, Sun Art

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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