Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>By June 2025, shares worth INR 4.02 trillion across 73 IPOs will become tradeable post lock-in expiry, including major names like Hyundai, Swiggy, and NTPC Green.</li>
<li>This massive unlock could flood markets with fresh float, increasing supply dramatically and potentially causing short-term price corrections, especially in already weak or overvalued stocks.</li>
<li>Investors should prepare for near-term volatility but also watch for dips in strong businesses as potential accumulation opportunities once initial selling pressure subsides.</li>
</ul>


By June 2025, shares worth INR 4.02 trillion across 73 IPOs will become tradeable post lock-in expiry, including major names like Hyundai, Swiggy, and NTPC Green.
This massive unlock could flood markets with fresh float, increasing supply dramatically and potentially causing short-term price corrections, especially in already weak or overvalued stocks.
Investors should prepare for near-term volatility but also watch for dips in strong businesses as potential accumulation opportunities once initial selling pressure subsides.


₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The Finance Minister of India will present the Union Budget FY25-26 on 1 st Feb’25.</li><li>The impact of the Union Budget on the equity market has reduced notably over the past few years, with the government undertaking most of the reforms outside the purview of the Budget.</li><li>H1FY25 was challenging in terms of an overall reduction in government spending, credit tightening in unsecured lending, consumption slowdown, especially in the urban area, extended monsoon, and inflation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Finance Minister of India will present the Union Budget FY25-26 on 1 st Feb’25.The impact of the Union Budget on the equity market has reduced notably over the past few years, with the government undertaking most of the reforms outside the purview of the Budget.H1FY25 was challenging in terms of an overall reduction in government spending, credit tightening in unsecured lending, consumption slowdown, especially in the urban area, extended monsoon, and inflation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenskart-solutions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45634:1" rel="noopener">Lenskart Solutions (LENSKART IN)</a> (LS) raised around US$825m in its India IPO in November 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Lenskart Solutions (LENSKART IN) (LS) raised around US$825m in its India IPO in November 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Lenskart Lockup Expiry - US$6.7bn Lockup Release with Everyone Well in the Money

Equity Bottom-Up

Nippon Life India Asset Management / Equity Bottom-Up

Nippon Life India Asset Management (NAM IN)

<ul>
<li>
Financialisation Tailwind: India's mutual fund AUM has crossed Rs 82 lakh crore and penetration at roughly 21% of GDP remains far below the global average. </li>
<li>NAM India surpasses Rs 8.16 trillion in AUM with Q3 FY26 PAT up 37% YoY; NSE confirms F&amp;O inclusion opening a new institutional access window.</li>
<li>With 16 successive quarters of market-share gains, dominant ETF positioning NAM India as a structural wealth-management compounder.</li>
</ul>



Financialisation Tailwind: India's mutual fund AUM has crossed Rs 82 lakh crore and penetration at roughly 21% of GDP remains far below the global average. 
NAM India surpasses Rs 8.16 trillion in AUM with Q3 FY26 PAT up 37% YoY; NSE confirms F&amp;O inclusion opening a new institutional access window.
With 16 successive quarters of market-share gains, dominant ETF positioning NAM India as a structural wealth-management compounder.


The Beat Ideas- Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd

India

Vishal Mega Mart is a prominent Indian value retail company engaged in the wholesale and retail trade of apparel, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), and general merchandise. The company operates a hypermarket model offering a diverse range of products, including a significant share of private labels, through its extensive network of stores across India. It was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets

By June 2025, INR 4.02 trillion worth of shares from 73 IPOs will become tradeable, potentially causing short-term price corrections and increased...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Pre-Budget Expectations 2025-26

The impact of the Union Budget on the equity market has reduced notably over the past few years, with the government undertaking most of the...

Axis Direct

Aequitas: Lenskart Lockup Expiry - US$6.7bn Lockup Release with Everyone Well in the Money

This time around softbank is looking to raise around US$300m via selling some of its stake in Lenskart. The deal is being run by GS.

Sumeet Singh

The Beat Ideas- Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd

India's mutual fund industry is growing rapidly, with NAM India leading the way with impressive AUM and market share gains.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets

​By June 2025, INR 4.02 trillion worth of shares from 73 IPOs will become tradeable, potentially causing short-term price corrections and increased...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Pre-Budget Expectations 2025-26

The impact of the Union Budget on the equity market has reduced notably over the past few years, with the government undertaking most of the...

Axis Direct

Aequitas: Lenskart Lockup Expiry - US$6.7bn Lockup Release with Everyone Well in the Money

This time around softbank is looking to raise around US$300m via selling some of its stake in Lenskart. The deal is being run by GS.

Sumeet Singh

The Beat Ideas- Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd

​India's mutual fund industry is growing rapidly, with NAM India leading the way with impressive AUM and market share gains.

Sudarshan Bhandari

By June 2025, INR 4.02 trillion worth of shares from 73 IPOs will become tradeable, potentially causing short-term price corrections and increased...

India's mutual fund industry is growing rapidly, with NAM India leading the way with impressive AUM and market share gains.