Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Robust Operational Scale: Production surged 58.8% YoY to 135.4 kboe/d, bolstered by the Equinor acquisition and Vaca Muerta ramp-up, securing clear medium-term cash visibility and durably improving unit costs.</li>
<li>
Resilient Credit Profile: Pro forma net leverage remains disciplined at 1.58x, with liquidity now covering short-term debt despite higher absolute borrowing costs and the exit of a key shareholder.</li>
<li>
Strategic Curve Preference: The VISTAA 2033 notes offer superior risk-adjusted returns over 2035s, providing a balanced carry with significantly lower duration and exposure to Argentine sovereign volatility.</li>
</ul>



Robust Operational Scale: Production surged 58.8% YoY to 135.4 kboe/d, bolstered by the Equinor acquisition and Vaca Muerta ramp-up, securing clear medium-term cash visibility and durably improving unit costs.

Resilient Credit Profile: Pro forma net leverage remains disciplined at 1.58x, with liquidity now covering short-term debt despite higher absolute borrowing costs and the exit of a key shareholder.

Strategic Curve Preference: The VISTAA 2033 notes offer superior risk-adjusted returns over 2035s, providing a balanced carry with significantly lower duration and exposure to Argentine sovereign volatility.


Vista 4Q25: Operational Momentum Reinforces Curve Preference

<ul>
<li>
Scale Expansion: Acquisition adds 22k boe/d and 54M boe reserves, boosting production 17% and cementing Vista’s core Vaca Muerta dominance with immediate, low-cost cash flow.Accretive </li>
<li>
Valuation: Assets acquired at attractive 3.0x EV/EBITDA (vs. Vista’s 5.2x), supporting credit metrics with competitive $4.7/boe lifting costs and export-weighted revenue despite YPF operatorship.</li>
<li>
Credit Opportunity: Structure limits downside risk via contingent payments; we reiterate Overweight on Vista 2033 notes, favoring their superior risk-adjusted yield and lower duration risk over 2035s.</li>
</ul>



Scale Expansion: Acquisition adds 22k boe/d and 54M boe reserves, boosting production 17% and cementing Vista’s core Vaca Muerta dominance with immediate, low-cost cash flow.Accretive 

Valuation: Assets acquired at attractive 3.0x EV/EBITDA (vs. Vista’s 5.2x), supporting credit metrics with competitive $4.7/boe lifting costs and export-weighted revenue despite YPF operatorship.

Credit Opportunity: Structure limits downside risk via contingent payments; we reiterate Overweight on Vista 2033 notes, favoring their superior risk-adjusted yield and lower duration risk over 2035s.


Vista Acquires Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Assets, Reinforcing Core Acreage Position

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vista Energy SAB de CV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Vista Oil & Gas showcased a strong operational and financial performance in the third quarter of 2025.</li><li>The company's production levels reached 127,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, marking a 74% increase year-over-year and a 7% rise from the previous quarter.</li><li>Oil production itself was reported at 110,000 barrels per day, reflecting interannual and sequential improvements of 73% and 7%, respectively.</li></ul>

Vista Oil & Gas showcased a strong operational and financial performance in the third quarter of 2025.The company's production levels reached 127,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, marking a 74% increase year-over-year and a 7% rise from the previous quarter.Oil production itself was reported at 110,000 barrels per day, reflecting interannual and sequential improvements of 73% and 7%, respectively.

Vista Energy: Advanced Drilling Is Delivering Big—Is Productivity Surging Faster Than Expected?

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.</li>
<li>Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.</li>
<li>3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.
Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.
3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.


Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.</li>
</ul>


Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.
We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.
While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.


Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Mexico

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as an oil and gas company. The Company invests in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Vista Energy serves customers in Latin America.

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Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST US)

Vista 4Q25: Operational Momentum Reinforces Curve Preference

Vista Energy’s record production and disciplined 1.6x leverage solidify its shale leadership; discover why the 2033 notes are the most efficient...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Acquires Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Assets, Reinforcing Core Acreage Position

Vista secures cheap, high-margin Vaca Muerta barrels in a credit-positive deal, validating our Overweight call on the 2033s as the superior play...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy: Advanced Drilling Is Delivering Big—Is Productivity Surging Faster Than Expected?

Vista Oil & Gas showcased a strong operational and financial performance in the third quarter of 2025. The company's production levels reached...

Baptista Research

Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

We recommend the 2033 notes over the 2035s due to similar yield and lower duration risk, citing Vista's strong performance and lower sovereign...

Leandro Gubler

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

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Vista 4Q25: Operational Momentum Reinforces Curve Preference

Vista Energy’s record production and disciplined 1.6x leverage solidify its shale leadership; discover why the 2033 notes are the most efficient...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Acquires Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Assets, Reinforcing Core Acreage Position

Vista secures cheap, high-margin Vaca Muerta barrels in a credit-positive deal, validating our Overweight call on the 2033s as the superior play...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy: Advanced Drilling Is Delivering Big—Is Productivity Surging Faster Than Expected?

Vista Oil & Gas showcased a strong operational and financial performance in the third quarter of 2025. The company's production levels reached...

Baptista Research

Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

​We recommend the 2033 notes over the 2035s due to similar yield and lower duration risk, citing Vista's strong performance and lower sovereign...

Leandro Gubler

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

We recommend the 2033 notes over the 2035s due to similar yield and lower duration risk, citing Vista's strong performance and lower sovereign...