External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile phone companies manufactured/assembled 2.33mn units during Oct 2025, down 34% YoY compared to 3.53mn units in Oct 2024, due to a production slowdown amid inventory build-up in the industry.</li><li>According to our channel checks, the decline in mobile phone production is primarily driven by elevated inventory levels across the market. With distributors and retailers sitting on excess inventory, manufacturers have reduced production volumes to avoid further stock accumulation.</li><li>Cumulatively, local manufacturing/assembly reached 25.11mn units in 10M2025, down 4% YoY.</li></ul>

As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile phone companies manufactured/assembled 2.33mn units during Oct 2025, down 34% YoY compared to 3.53mn units in Oct 2024, due to a production slowdown amid inventory build-up in the industry.According to our channel checks, the decline in mobile phone production is primarily driven by elevated inventory levels across the market. With distributors and retailers sitting on excess inventory, manufacturers have reduced production volumes to avoid further stock accumulation.Cumulatively, local manufacturing/assembly reached 25.11mn units in 10M2025, down 4% YoY.

Topline Flash Note: Local Manufacturing/Assembly Of Mobile Phones Down 23% MoM In Oct-25

<ul><li>As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile companies manufactured/assembled 3.59mn units during Jul 2025, up 123% YoY and 64% MoM. This growth is attributable to low base effects.</li><li>The YoY growth stems from a low base in Jul 2024, when sales declined due to excessive pre-buying in Jun 2024 ahead of expected changes in the budget.</li><li>Similarly, the MoM growth is driven by a low base in Jun 2025, when supply chain disruptions amid regional conflicts reduced volumes to 2.19mn units.</li></ul>

As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile companies manufactured/assembled 3.59mn units during Jul 2025, up 123% YoY and 64% MoM. This growth is attributable to low base effects.The YoY growth stems from a low base in Jul 2024, when sales declined due to excessive pre-buying in Jun 2024 ahead of expected changes in the budget.Similarly, the MoM growth is driven by a low base in Jun 2025, when supply chain disruptions amid regional conflicts reduced volumes to 2.19mn units.

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Local Mobile Manufacturing/Assembly Up 2.2x YoY In Jul-25

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> has "given up" and accepted the fact of the Tender Offer. There will be no Poison Pill EGM, and SBI will "honour" Shinsei management policy</li>
<li>Approval from the anti-trust watchdog is by no means a sure thing in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> merge. </li>
<li>Hotel operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-jin-jiang-capital-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15781:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK)</a> has announced a pre-conditional Offer from an entity primarily controlled by Shanghai SASAC. </li>
</ul>



Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) has "given up" and accepted the fact of the Tender Offer. There will be no Poison Pill EGM, and SBI will "honour" Shinsei management policy
Approval from the anti-trust watchdog is by no means a sure thing in the True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merge. 
Hotel operator Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK) has announced a pre-conditional Offer from an entity primarily controlled by Shanghai SASAC. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, True Corp/DTAC, Kansai Super, SingTel, DiDi Global

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Vivo Energy announced a recommended offer from Vitol (36%), for $1.85/share ($1.79 cash +$0.04 final dividend +$0.02 special dividend). With irrevocable undertakings from Helios (26.1%), it's a done deal.</li>
<li>I believe a 25% premium is enough for shareholders to tender this relatively illiquid stock, downwards sliding since the IPO. Although the offer seems slightly opportunistic, in my view. </li>
<li>Offer price is close to fair (6.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 8.5x Fwd P/E). Gross spread including dividends is 5%. Recommendation is long VVO LN. There is FX risk, which can be hedged.</li>
</ul>


Vivo Energy announced a recommended offer from Vitol (36%), for $1.85/share ($1.79 cash +$0.04 final dividend +$0.02 special dividend). With irrevocable undertakings from Helios (26.1%), it's a done deal.
I believe a 25% premium is enough for shareholders to tender this relatively illiquid stock, downwards sliding since the IPO. Although the offer seems slightly opportunistic, in my view. 
Offer price is close to fair (6.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 8.5x Fwd P/E). Gross spread including dividends is 5%. Recommendation is long VVO LN. There is FX risk, which can be hedged.


United Kingdom

Vivo Energy PLC distributes and markets petroleum products. The Company offers supply, storage, distribution, and retail of lubricants, fuels, and liquefied petroleum gas. Vivo Energy serves customers worldwide.

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Vivo Energy (VVO LN)

Topline Flash Note: Local Manufacturing/Assembly Of Mobile Phones Down 23% MoM In Oct-25

As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile phone companies manufactured/assembled 2.33mn...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Local Mobile Manufacturing/Assembly Up 2.2x YoY In Jul-25

As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile companies manufactured/assembled 3.59mn units...

Topline Securities

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, True Corp/DTAC, Kansai Super, SingTel, DiDi Global

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Vitol/Vivo Energy: Recommended Offer

I believe a 25% premium is good enough to tender this relatively illiquid stock which has been downwards sliding since the IPO. Gross spread...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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