Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> rights issue is underway, we take this opportunity to re-visit our core thesis on Bharti (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bharti-airtel-bharti-in-the-last-one-standing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34585" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) | The Last One Standing</a> ) along with assessing the current valuation standpoint. 
Rights issue specifics are assumed to be widely known and hence will not be covered in this insight.

As Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) rights issue is underway, we take this opportunity to re-visit our core thesis on Bharti (Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) | The Last One Standing ) along with assessing the current valuation standpoint. 
Rights issue specifics are assumed to be widely known and hence will not be covered in this insight.  

Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) | Revisiting Core Thesis

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

On 25 August, the Board of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> announced that they would be meeting on 29 August to consider various capital raising options through equity or equity linked or debt instruments or a combination thereof. The stock dropped 4.2% on 26 August and then gained 1.4% on 27 August.Last evening, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> announced a 1:14 rights issue (shareholders can subscribe to 1 share for every 14 shares they own) at INR 535/share to raise up to INR 21,000 crores (INR 210 bn; US$2.86bn). That is a 10.1% discount to the last close on the NSE.Subscribers to the issue will need to pay 25% on application and the balance will need to be paid in two additional calls within an overall time horizon of 36 months.The promoter and promoter group will subscribe to the full extent of their entitlement and will also subscribe to any unsubscribed shares in the issue.The record date has not been announced yet and a 'Special Committee of Directors' has been formed to decide other terms and conditions of the offer, including the issue period and record date.Given the small dilution, we do not expect the stock to trade a lot lower today. The stock could trade higher as investors that sold in size on Thursday and Friday re-enter the stock.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> has continued to gain subscribers at the expense of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vodafone-idea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15678:1" rel="noopener">Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN)</a> and the rights issue could help cement its position while helping pay the Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues.

On 25 August, the Board of Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) announced that they would be meeting on 29 August to consider various capital raising options through equity or equity linked or debt instruments or a combination thereof. The stock dropped 4.2% on 26 August and then gained 1.4% on 27 August.Last evening, Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) announced a 1:14 rights issue (shareholders can subscribe to 1 share for every 14 shares they own) at INR 535/share to raise up to INR 21,000 crores (INR 210 bn; US$2.86bn). That is a 10.1% discount to the last close on the NSE.Subscribers to the issue will need to pay 25% on application and the balance will need to be paid in two additional calls within an overall time horizon of 36 months.The promoter and promoter group will subscribe to the full extent of their entitlement and will also subscribe to any unsubscribed shares in the issue.The record date has not been announced yet and a 'Special Committee of Directors' has been formed to decide other terms and conditions of the offer, including the issue period and record date.Given the small dilution, we do not expect the stock to trade a lot lower today. The stock could trade higher as investors that sold in size on Thursday and Friday re-enter the stock.Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) has continued to gain subscribers at the expense of Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) and the rights issue could help cement its position while helping pay the Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues.

Bharti Airtel's Large Partly Paid Rights Offering

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Geojit BNP Paribas

Geojit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Amidst liquidity pressures, declining subscriber base and lower ARPU, it is yet to be seen how the company will manage its debt servicing in the coming quarters. Given existing uncertainties, we remain cautious on the stock and maintain our HOLD rating with a revised target price of Rs. 7.0 based on 7.8x FY23E EV/EBITDA. Continued de-growth in subscribers and ARPU impacts topline Revenue fell 14.1% YoY to Rs.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Amidst liquidity pressures, declining subscriber base and lower ARPU, it is yet to be seen how the company will manage its debt servicing in the coming quarters. Given existing uncertainties, we remain cautious on the stock and maintain our HOLD rating with a revised target price of Rs. 7.0 based on 7.8x FY23E EV/EBITDA. Continued de-growth in subscribers and ARPU impacts topline Revenue fell 14.1% YoY to Rs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vodafone Idea: Lockdown Restrictions Impact Performance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Adjusted EBITDA (excluding one-offs on pre Ind AS 116) stood at INR12.8b v/s INR17.1b QoQ. This was attributed to the sharp subscriber churn due to the COVID-led lockdown and fall in ARPUs. With EBITDA (pre-Ind AS 116) of INR38.5b in 2HFY22E, it will be challenging to invest in growing its network and service upcoming repayments of: a) INR64.7b NCDs in FY22, b) INR82b deferred spectrum payment, and c) AGR installment.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Adjusted EBITDA (excluding one-offs on pre Ind AS 116) stood at INR12.8b v/s INR17.1b QoQ. This was attributed to the sharp subscriber churn due to the COVID-led lockdown and fall in ARPUs. With EBITDA (pre-Ind AS 116) of INR38.5b in 2HFY22E, it will be challenging to invest in growing its network and service upcoming repayments of: a) INR64.7b NCDs in FY22, b) INR82b deferred spectrum payment, and c) AGR installment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fall in earnings continues; needs immediate liquidity support

Except 4G subscriber base, all the other KPIs signal weak performance for VIL in this quarter. Despite management's committed focus to expand coverage and capacity, company's future prospects largely depend on its ability to generate higher ARPU and a near-immediate need of fund infusion to keep the operations going. Keeping a close watch on the developments, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a revised TP of Rs.
<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Except 4G subscriber base, all the other KPIs signal weak performance for VIL in this quarter. Despite management's committed focus to expand coverage and capacity, company's future prospects largely depend on its ability to generate higher ARPU and a near-immediate need of fund infusion to keep the operations going. Keeping a close watch on the developments, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a revised TP of Rs.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Vodafone Idea Limited operates as a telecom service provider. The Company offers 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile services, as well as mobile payments, advanced enterprise offerings, and entertainment. Vodafone Idea serves customers in India.

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Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN)

Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) | Revisiting Core Thesis

As Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) rights issue is underway, we take this opportunity to re-visit our core thesis on Bharti along with assessing the...

Pranav Bhavsar

Bharti Airtel's Large Partly Paid Rights Offering

Bharti Airtel has announced a US$2.8bn rights offer. This is a partly paid offering with 25% paid upfront and 2 calls within 36 months. Expect the...

Brian Freitas

Vodafone Idea: Lockdown Restrictions Impact Performance

Amidst liquidity pressures, declining subscriber base and lower ARPU, it is yet to be seen how the company will manage its debt servicing in the...

Geojit

Fall in earnings continues; needs immediate liquidity support

Adjusted EBITDA (excluding one-offs on pre Ind AS 116) stood at INR12.8b v/s INR17.1b QoQ. This was attributed to the sharp subscriber churn due to...

Motilal Oswal

VODAFONE IDEA: Q4FY21 Update

Except 4G subscriber base, all the other KPIs signal weak performance for VIL in this quarter. Despite management's committed focus to expand...

Geojit

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