European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.
Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 9 tightened).</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Ericsson, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 9 tightened).
Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Ericsson, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Trade recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December ‘22 Report

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a> is a full-scale mobility platform in Vietnam focused on manufacturing electric vehicles including e-scooters and e-buses looking to raise US$1bn via a NASDAQ IPO.</li>
<li>The company has switched its business model from ICE vehicles to EVs and looking to sell its electric cars in Vietnam, the US and the Europe.</li>
<li>With relatively new to EV manufacturing and having not sold previously in overseas markets  including the US and the EU, we remain conscious over Vinfast’s prospects in the medium-term.</li>
</ul>



VinFast (1905332D VN) is a full-scale mobility platform in Vietnam focused on manufacturing electric vehicles including e-scooters and e-buses looking to raise US$1bn via a NASDAQ IPO.
The company has switched its business model from ICE vehicles to EVs and looking to sell its electric cars in Vietnam, the US and the Europe.
With relatively new to EV manufacturing and having not sold previously in overseas markets  including the US and the EU, we remain conscious over Vinfast’s prospects in the medium-term.


<ul>
<li>Since mid-September, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 8 tightened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Ericsson, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-September, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 8 tightened, 1 at same level).
Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Ericsson, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Trade recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November ‘22 Report

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  </li>
<li>Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.</li>
<li>Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. </li>
</ul>


Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  
Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.
Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. 


Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December ‘22 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 9...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vinfast Auto IPO: Initial Thoughts

With relatively new to EVs and not sold previously in overseas markets, we remain conscious over growth prospects. Vinfast's EV models are not...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November ‘22 Report

Since mid-September, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 8...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

Toyota saw a huge miss in Q2 and admits they're revamping their EV plans. This may seem negative, but it's a huge positive ahead of a recovering...

SC Capital

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