Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Equity Bottom-Up

On Sunday, both Volkswagen and Suzuki separately announced that arbitration at the&nbsp;ICC International Court of Arbitration in London had ended, determining that their "alliance"&nbsp;had ended in May 2012, some 6 months after Suzuki filed for international arbitration in November 2011 for "re-transfer" of the 19.89% interest held by Volkswagen AG, and for damages (the claims VW had considered unfounded, and had itself filed counter-claims). This had been expected because Suzuki President Osamu Suzuki had stated in the June 26 Suzuki AGM that the arbitration proceedings had been concluded.&nbsp;Suggesting May 2012 is "generous" as Suzuki started having problems with VW in January&nbsp;2011 after VW's accounting statements applied equity-method accounting for its Suzuki stake, listing&nbsp;Suzuki as an 'associate' (which angered Suzuki dramatically as it saw this move as a prelude to a hostile increase in stake), and&nbsp;Suzuki then-Executive Vice President Yasuhito Harayama (formerly of METI) flew to Germany in September 2011 just before the Frankfurt Auto Show to require that VW agree to discussions to end the alliance or CEO Osamu Suzuki would go public asking for a 'divorce' in three days' time (they didn't so&nbsp;he&nbsp;did). But it is the language of these things.The arbitrator&nbsp;separately decided that VW must&nbsp;sell its 19.89% stake in Suzuki&nbsp;back to Suzuki or to Suzuki's designee forthwith. Suzuki had announced in December of last year that it expected to buy back the shares VW held through a TostNet-3 buyback, and on August 7th of this year made a release on Edinet specifying the number of shares it would put into the buyback, and yesterday reiterated TostNet-3 as the likely process.The arbitrator also said that&nbsp;VW's counterclaims were partially upheld (the Fiat part) and Suzuki was found in the breach of the Framework Agreement. The remainder of VW's counterclaims and Suzuki's claims were dismissed, but VW may sue for claims, and that the Tribunal would address the amount of damages, if any, in a further stage of arbitration proceedings.This Insight looks back at the situation, and takes a brief look at Suzuki's options.&nbsp;There are some very interesting (and potentially highly profitable) dynamics at play here very near-term.A lot more below the fold for subscribers...

On Sunday, both Volkswagen and Suzuki separately announced that arbitration at the&nbsp;ICC International Court of Arbitration in London had ended, determining that their "alliance"&nbsp;had ended in May 2012, some 6 months after Suzuki filed for international arbitration in November 2011 for "re-transfer" of the 19.89% interest held by Volkswagen AG, and for damages (the claims VW had considered unfounded, and had itself filed counter-claims). This had been expected because Suzuki President Osamu Suzuki had stated in the June 26 Suzuki AGM that the arbitration proceedings had been concluded.&nbsp;Suggesting May 2012 is "generous" as Suzuki started having problems with VW in January&nbsp;2011 after VW's accounting statements applied equity-method accounting for its Suzuki stake, listing&nbsp;Suzuki as an 'associate' (which angered Suzuki dramatically as it saw this move as a prelude to a hostile increase in stake), and&nbsp;Suzuki then-Executive Vice President Yasuhito Harayama (formerly of METI) flew to Germany in September 2011 just before the Frankfurt Auto Show to require that VW agree to discussions to end the alliance or CEO Osamu Suzuki would go public asking for a 'divorce' in three days' time (they didn't so&nbsp;he&nbsp;did). But it is the language of these things.The arbitrator&nbsp;separately decided that VW must&nbsp;sell its 19.89% stake in Suzuki&nbsp;back to Suzuki or to Suzuki's designee forthwith. Suzuki had announced in December of last year that it expected to buy back the shares VW held through a TostNet-3 buyback, and on August 7th of this year made a release on Edinet specifying the number of shares it would put into the buyback, and yesterday reiterated TostNet-3 as the likely process.The arbitrator also said that&nbsp;VW's counterclaims were partially upheld (the Fiat part) and Suzuki was found in the breach of the Framework Agreement. The remainder of VW's counterclaims and Suzuki's claims were dismissed, but VW may sue for claims, and that the Tribunal would address the amount of damages, if any, in a further stage of arbitration proceedings.This Insight looks back at the situation, and takes a brief look at Suzuki's options.&nbsp;There are some very interesting (and potentially highly profitable) dynamics at play here very near-term.A lot more below the fold for subscribers...

VW-Suzuki Arbitration Complete - A REALLY Interesting Opportunity Near-Term?

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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VW-Suzuki Arbitration Complete - A REALLY Interesting Opportunity Near-Term?

On Sunday, both Volkswagen and Suzuki separately announced that arbitration at the ICC International Court of Arbitration in London had ended,...

Travis Lundy

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