Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> w</strong>ill <a href="https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-announces-date-third-quarter-2020-financial-results-and-webcast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report third quarter results</a> after the market closes <strong>Wednesday</strong>, <strong>October 21st</strong>.</p><p>Tesla recently reported <strong>third quarter deliveries up 43% </strong>versus last year, again thanks to <strong>incremental sales from market expansion </strong>which continue to offset <strong>sharply lower same-store sales I've been tracking since last year </strong>(as I last discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/things-people-believe-flat-earth-faked-moon-landings-and-tesla-2100" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42439" rel="noopener">Things People Believe: Flat Earth, Faked Moon Landings, and Tesla $2100</a> <span class="dummy">on 8/23/20).</span></p><p>That distinction is a major reason Tesla goes to so much trouble to keep comparable numbers muddled so <strong>demand erosion is harder to spot</strong>. <strong>Severe price cuts and weaker mix</strong> over the past year also mean <strong>revenue growth from auto sales significantly trails reported deliveries</strong>.</p><p>This will figure heavily into how much padding Tesla will likely add with energy credit sales, nonoperating &amp; unusual items, and accounting maneuvers to inflate <strong>consolidated revenue and "profits"</strong> it reports for the quarter.</p><p>After all, another creatively reported profit could set up another <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-elon-musk-payout-earnings-pocket-billions-hits-goals-2020-10-1029657370?utm_campaign=browser_notification&amp;utm_source=desktop" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$3 billion payday</a> for CEO Elon Musk and finally get Tesla into the <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a></strong>.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong><em>Continue reading for Bond Angle revenue and profit estimates for Tesla's third quarter.</em></strong></p></div>

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) will report third quarter results after the market closes Wednesday, October 21st.Tesla recently reported third quarter deliveries up 43% versus last year, again thanks to incremental sales from market expansion which continue to offset sharply lower same-store sales I've been tracking since last year (as I last discussed in Things People Believe: Flat Earth, Faked Moon Landings, and Tesla $2100 on 8/23/20).That distinction is a major reason Tesla goes to so much trouble to keep comparable numbers muddled so demand erosion is harder to spot. Severe price cuts and weaker mix over the past year also mean revenue growth from auto sales significantly trails reported deliveries.This will figure heavily into how much padding Tesla will likely add with energy credit sales, nonoperating &amp; unusual items, and accounting maneuvers to inflate consolidated revenue and "profits" it reports for the quarter.After all, another creatively reported profit could set up another $3 billion payday for CEO Elon Musk and finally get Tesla into the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX).Continue reading for Bond Angle revenue and profit estimates for Tesla's third quarter.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<div>
<h3>Trends</h3>
</div>
<div>
<p>There has been no obvious trend over the last three months regarding the discounts, although it has widened in some names.  Trading opportunities are less obvious, but some still exist.</p>
</div>
<div>
<h3>Recommended trades</h3>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> : the discount has traded sideways since mid-September, and is now 23.2%. I would recommend setting up a trade long BMW prefs, short common shares with a target of a 15% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21624:1" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)</a> 's premium of preferred shares is a whopping 34.4% currently. Remember that voting rights are valuable. Recommendation: long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21646:1" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR)</a> : the premium is 13.0% (down from 15.4% in my September report). I would set up a trade long prefs/short common shares with a 10% premium target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a> , so a 5.8% discount of the prefs. seems about right. It has moved sideways since mid-September.  If you believe that the higher liquidity of the prefs will, at some point, mean that the discount will close, then a long prefs/short ords may be an option; plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range. </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>A 35.9% discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danieli-c-officine-meccanich" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21177:1" rel="noopener">Danieli &amp; C Officine Meccanich (DAN IM)</a> savers (vs. 37.5% in September and 39% in June) seems still too wide, and low liquidity does not help. I keep on recommending long savers/short ordinaries. A 30% discount is not a demanding target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a> B shares are trading at a 37.9% discount (vs. 41.9 by mid-September), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The current discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-copco-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22282:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS)</a> B shares vs. A shares is 13.2%. I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonaktiebolaget-lm-ericsso" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22354:1" rel="noopener">Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS)</a> (Ericsson) B shares has tightened since my July recommendation: from 8.7% to 6.8%. I would keep the trade on with a 3% discount target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<div>
<p>The discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schroders-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22134:1" rel="noopener">Schroders PLC (SDR LN)</a> is now 32.7% (vs. 27% by mid-September). I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.</p>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Please read on for table and charts.</p>
</div>


Trends


There has been no obvious trend over the last three months regarding the discounts, although it has widened in some names.  Trading opportunities are less obvious, but some still exist.


Recommended trades





Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR) : the discount has traded sideways since mid-September, and is now 23.2%. I would recommend setting up a trade long BMW prefs, short common shares with a target of a 15% discount.


Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR) 's premium of preferred shares is a whopping 34.4% currently. Remember that voting rights are valuable. Recommendation: long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.


Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR) : the premium is 13.0% (down from 15.4% in my September report). I would set up a trade long prefs/short common shares with a 10% premium target.


Voting rights are valuable in a company like Volkswagen (VOW GR) , so a 5.8% discount of the prefs. seems about right. It has moved sideways since mid-September.  If you believe that the higher liquidity of the prefs will, at some point, mean that the discount will close, then a long prefs/short ords may be an option; plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range. 


A 35.9% discount of Danieli &amp; C Officine Meccanich (DAN IM) savers (vs. 37.5% in September and 39% in June) seems still too wide, and low liquidity does not help. I keep on recommending long savers/short ordinaries. A 30% discount is not a demanding target.


Grifols SA (GRF SM) B shares are trading at a 37.9% discount (vs. 41.9 by mid-September), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.


The current discount in Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS) B shares vs. A shares is 13.2%. I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.


The discount in the Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS) (Ericsson) B shares has tightened since my July recommendation: from 8.7% to 6.8%. I would keep the trade on with a 3% discount target.



The discount in Schroders PLC (SDR LN) is now 32.7% (vs. 27% by mid-September). I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.



Please read on for table and charts.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October Report

<h3><strong>Trends</strong></h3>
<p>There has been no obvious trend over the last two months regarding the discounts, although it has widened in some names. Some of the previous (May and June) recommendations have been bang on. Trading opportunities are less obvious, but some still exist.</p>
<h3><strong>Recommended trades</strong></h3>
<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlsberg-a-s" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)</a>: close trade long B/short A shares (B are trading at 4.4% discount from 12% in June).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> : the discount has widened to 23% from 18% by mid-August, as a result of recent volatility. I would recommend setting up a trade <strong>long BMW prefs, short ords</strong> with a target of a 15% discount.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub Se (FPE GR)</a> 's premium of preferred shares is a whopping 33.6% currently. Remember that <em>voting rights are valuable</em>. Recommendation: <strong>long ords/short prefs</strong>, with a 10% target.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co Kgaa (HEN3 GR)</a> The premium of the preferred shares is 15.4%. I would set up a trade <strong>long prefs/short common shares</strong> with a 10% discount target.</li>
<li>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a> , so a <strong>5.8% discount of the prefs</strong>. seems about right. If you believe that the higher liquidity of the prefs will, at some point, mean that the discount will close, then a long prefs/short ords may be an option; plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a> B shares are trading at a 41.9% discount (vs. 38% in June). The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade <strong>long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid</strong>. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</li>
<li>The discount in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonaktiebolaget-lm-ericsso" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22354:1" rel="noopener">Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS)</a> (Ericsson) B shares has tightened since my July recommendation: from 8.7% to 7.7%. I would keep the trade on with a 3% discount target.</li>
</ul>
<p>Please read on for table and charts.</p>

Trends
There has been no obvious trend over the last two months regarding the discounts, although it has widened in some names. Some of the previous (May and June) recommendations have been bang on. Trading opportunities are less obvious, but some still exist.
Recommended trades


Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC): close trade long B/short A shares (B are trading at 4.4% discount from 12% in June).

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR) : the discount has widened to 23% from 18% by mid-August, as a result of recent volatility. I would recommend setting up a trade long BMW prefs, short ords with a target of a 15% discount.

Fuchs Petrolub Se (FPE GR) 's premium of preferred shares is a whopping 33.6% currently. Remember that voting rights are valuable. Recommendation: long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.

Henkel AG &amp; Co Kgaa (HEN3 GR) The premium of the preferred shares is 15.4%. I would set up a trade long prefs/short common shares with a 10% discount target.
Voting rights are valuable in a company like Volkswagen (VOW GR) , so a 5.8% discount of the prefs. seems about right. If you believe that the higher liquidity of the prefs will, at some point, mean that the discount will close, then a long prefs/short ords may be an option; plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range. 

Grifols SA (GRF SM) B shares are trading at a 41.9% discount (vs. 38% in June). The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.
The discount in the Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS) (Ericsson) B shares has tightened since my July recommendation: from 8.7% to 7.7%. I would keep the trade on with a 3% discount target.

Please read on for table and charts.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September Report

<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> stock closed near $2,100 per share on Friday</strong>, making it more expensive at more than $381 billion versus the combined equity of its next five competitors <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-motors-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1" rel="noopener">General Motors Co (GM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ford-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19225:1" rel="noopener">Ford Motor Co (F US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8245:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8768:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (ADR) (NSANY US)</a>. </p><p><strong>Notice I didn't say more "valuable."</strong> That's because the stock now is selling at <strong>1153x earnings</strong>, with enterprise value <strong>84x my 2020 EBITDA estimate</strong> (as affirmed in my report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/investors-aren-t-worried-but-tesla-seems-to-be" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39074" rel="noopener">Investors Aren't Worried, But Tesla Seems To Be</a> on 8/17/20).</p><p>Now, this doesn't mean I am a Tesla "hater" (or a seventh-grader) or "in the pocket of big oil." But then, people say a lot of dubious things to justify Tesla's stock price like:</p><ul>
<li>Tesla should be priced like a <strong>tech company</strong>, not an auto company. </li>
<li>Tesla is <strong>profitable and generates free cash flow</strong>.</li>
<li>Analysts just <strong>don't understand</strong> Tesla's business.</li>
<li>Tesla's <strong>insane demand</strong> plus its prospective <strong>battery-making business makes it worth the valuation</strong>.</li>
<li>Panic over COVID-19 is <strong>"dumb"</strong> and it will be <strong>over by April</strong>. Wait, those <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/01/coronavirus-has-elon-musk-acting-like-just-another-used-car-salesman" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statements came from Tesla CEO Elon Musk</a> and they were <strong>categorically false and dangerous misinformation when he said them</strong>.</li>
</ul><p>Meanwhile, we're still waiting for the <strong>"more than one million" Tesla "robotaxis"</strong> with "<strong>full self-driving hardware, feature complete</strong> at a reliably level that we would consider that <strong>no one needs to pay attention</strong>" as <strong>Musk promised by July of this year on Autonomy Day in April 2019</strong> and which <strong>now are significantly overdue</strong> (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-autonomy-day-takes-investors-for-another-ride" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29339" rel="noopener">Tesla "Autonomy Day" Takes Investors For Another Ride</a> on 4/24/19).</p><p>I mean, if you can't trust claims from Elon Musk what about Tesla's bulls? </p><div class="content-highlight"><p><em>Read on as <strong>Bond Angle the Curmudgeon</strong> takes on Tesla myths <strong>even bigger than its stock price</strong>.</em></p></div>

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) stock closed near $2,100 per share on Friday, making it more expensive at more than $381 billion versus the combined equity of its next five competitors General Motors Co (GM US), Ford Motor Co (F US), Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US), Volkswagen (VOW GR), and Nissan Motor (ADR) (NSANY US). Notice I didn't say more "valuable." That's because the stock now is selling at 1153x earnings, with enterprise value 84x my 2020 EBITDA estimate (as affirmed in my report Investors Aren't Worried, But Tesla Seems To Be on 8/17/20).Now, this doesn't mean I am a Tesla "hater" (or a seventh-grader) or "in the pocket of big oil." But then, people say a lot of dubious things to justify Tesla's stock price like:
Tesla should be priced like a tech company, not an auto company. 
Tesla is profitable and generates free cash flow.
Analysts just don't understand Tesla's business.
Tesla's insane demand plus its prospective battery-making business makes it worth the valuation.
Panic over COVID-19 is "dumb" and it will be over by April. Wait, those statements came from Tesla CEO Elon Musk and they were categorically false and dangerous misinformation when he said them.
Meanwhile, we're still waiting for the "more than one million" Tesla "robotaxis" with "full self-driving hardware, feature complete at a reliably level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention" as Musk promised by July of this year on Autonomy Day in April 2019 and which now are significantly overdue (see Tesla "Autonomy Day" Takes Investors For Another Ride on 4/24/19).I mean, if you can't trust claims from Elon Musk what about Tesla's bulls? Read on as Bond Angle the Curmudgeon takes on Tesla myths even bigger than its stock price.

Things People Believe: Flat Earth, Faked Moon Landings, and Tesla $2100

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Having increased its global market share from fifth to second in 2018 thanks to the technological advantages, the company's share price has disappointed its shareholders and underperformed its customers' in China due to its heavy reliance on US customers such as Ford and GM.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/291/original/image_44632301051596175067736.png?1596175067" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149291"></figure><div class="content-remarks"><p>source: Capital IQ</p></div><div>With the new initiative to focus more on China and Emerging Markets, the company creates an opportunity to diversify its revenue geographically and participate in the rebound in the Chinese auto sector. </div><div></div><div>The company is severely undervalued compared to the peers by 68% in PER and 38% in EV/EBITDA despite higher profitability (560% higher ROE) and leaner capital structure (50% better in D/E), showing <span>potential for re-rating</span>. </div><div></div><div>
<p>If the company's AES is to be implemented this year and adopted by various customers in China to start with, then the revenue that the company receives will bolster its current net income (USD 232.4 million) by around 38% to 570% in the next few years depending on the pace of the adoption and market share. Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexteer-automotive-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15483:1" rel="noopener">Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK)</a> .</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/289/original/image_65787491341596174865541.png?1596174865" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149289"></figure><div class="content-remarks"><p>source: Capital IQ</p></div>
</div>

Having increased its global market share from fifth to second in 2018 thanks to the technological advantages, the company's share price has disappointed its shareholders and underperformed its customers' in China due to its heavy reliance on US customers such as Ford and GM.source: Capital IQWith the new initiative to focus more on China and Emerging Markets, the company creates an opportunity to diversify its revenue geographically and participate in the rebound in the Chinese auto sector. The company is severely undervalued compared to the peers by 68% in PER and 38% in EV/EBITDA despite higher profitability (560% higher ROE) and leaner capital structure (50% better in D/E), showing potential for re-rating. 
If the company's AES is to be implemented this year and adopted by various customers in China to start with, then the revenue that the company receives will bolster its current net income (USD 232.4 million) by around 38% to 570% in the next few years depending on the pace of the adoption and market share. Buy Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK) .
source: Capital IQ


Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

What To Expect in Tesla's Critical Q3

Tesla will report revenue and earnings this week which likely mask far weaker underlying core performance. Best to read between the lines and...

Vicki Bryan

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October Report

No clear trend over the last three months regarding discounts. Some ords/prefs trades/situations to watch: BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Volkswagen,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September Report

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Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Things People Believe: Flat Earth, Faked Moon Landings, and Tesla $2100

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) stock closed near $2,100 per share on Friday, making it more expensive at more than $381 billion versus the combined equity...

Vicki Bryan

Nexteer (1316): AES to the Rescue

Having increased its global market share from fifth to second in 2018 thanks to the technological advantages, the company's share price has...

Henry Soediarko

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