European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).


Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

<ul>
<li>Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.
Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have widened, 8 tightened, 1 unchanged) with few changes in the trends.</li>
<li>The most notorious reversal has been Telecom Italia. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have widened, 8 tightened, 1 unchanged) with few changes in the trends.
The most notorious reversal has been Telecom Italia. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘24 Report

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sparebank-1-sr-bank-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22255:1" rel="noopener">SpareBank 1 Sr-Bank (SRBANK NO)</a> is the number one addition candidate following the merger with SpareBank 1 Sørøst-Norge which increased the security's float shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schibsted-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22250:1" rel="noopener">Schibsted ASA (SCHB NO)</a> - Class B - is estimated to have surpassed Class A in liquidity which deems it eligible for selection with a high conviction.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnival-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21869:1" rel="noopener">Carnival PLC (CCL LN)</a> is one of the top three addition candidates after experiencing a ~50% price rally over the last three months. </li>
</ul>



SpareBank 1 Sr-Bank (SRBANK NO) is the number one addition candidate following the merger with SpareBank 1 Sørøst-Norge which increased the security's float shares.

Schibsted ASA (SCHB NO) - Class B - is estimated to have surpassed Class A in liquidity which deems it eligible for selection with a high conviction.  

Carnival PLC (CCL LN) is one of the top three addition candidates after experiencing a ~50% price rally over the last three months. 


STOXX 600 EU December 2024 Forecast: A Schibsted Gamble, a SpareBank Surge, and a Carnival Party

<ul>
<li>Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.</li>
<li>Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.
Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

Sweden

Volvo AB manufactures trucks, buses, construction equipment, drive systems for marine and industrial uses, and aircraft engine components.  The Company also offers repair and maintenance, lease financing, insurance, and financial services to its customers.

Price Gauge
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Volvo AB (VOLVB SS)

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘24 Report

Since mid-November, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares with few changes in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX 600 EU December 2024 Forecast: A Schibsted Gamble, a SpareBank Surge, and a Carnival Party

The top addition candidates are SpareBank 1 Sr-Bank post-merger, Schibsted ASA Class B after surpassing Class A in liquidity, and Carnival PLC...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

​Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘24 Report

Since mid-November, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares with few changes in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX 600 EU December 2024 Forecast: A Schibsted Gamble, a SpareBank Surge, and a Carnival Party

​The top addition candidates are SpareBank 1 Sr-Bank post-merger, Schibsted ASA Class B after surpassing Class A in liquidity, and Carnival PLC...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

The top addition candidates are SpareBank 1 Sr-Bank post-merger, Schibsted ASA Class B after surpassing Class A in liquidity, and Carnival PLC...