New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing</li>
<li>Australia: New home sales continue to slide; Lending approvals tick lower; Construction headwinds showing in 2Q22</li>
<li>US housing data mixed: Housing permits tumble, starts up; Existing home sales tick lower, new sales jump</li>
</ul>


New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing
Australia: New home sales continue to slide; Lending approvals tick lower; Construction headwinds showing in 2Q22
US housing data mixed: Housing permits tumble, starts up; Existing home sales tick lower, new sales jump


<ul><li>New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecasts</li><li>Australia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residential</li><li>International: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis</li></ul>

New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecastsAustralia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residentialInternational: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis

<ul><li>June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have rolled over the peak</li><li>Solid 2Q22 volumes but some regions rolling over the peak</li><li>RMC production is the first NZ construction indicator for 2Q CY22, and including cement and aggregates a significant exposure for Fletcher Building (FBU).</li></ul>

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have rolled over the peakSolid 2Q22 volumes but some regions rolling over the peakRMC production is the first NZ construction indicator for 2Q CY22, and including cement and aggregates a significant exposure for Fletcher Building (FBU).

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As expected, Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a weak 1H25. The Steel division remains under cyclical and competitive pressure.</li><li>Metals outperformed expectations, driven by stronger margins from higher aluminium prices and operational improvements in Ullrich.</li><li>Management provided a mixed but cautiously optimistic demand outlook, expecting volumes and pricing to firm gradually over the next 12 months. </li></ul>

As expected, Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a weak 1H25. The Steel division remains under cyclical and competitive pressure.Metals outperformed expectations, driven by stronger margins from higher aluminium prices and operational improvements in Ullrich.Management provided a mixed but cautiously optimistic demand outlook, expecting volumes and pricing to firm gradually over the next 12 months. 

Vulcan Steel - 1H25 Result—Forging Ahead

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.</li>
<li>The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.</li>
</ul>


There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.

A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.


S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

New Zealand

Vulcan Steel Ltd operates as a metals distributing and processing company. The Company offers stainless and engineering steel products. Vulcan Steel serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Vulcan Steel Limited (VSL NZ)

Building Weekly (28-Sep-2022)

New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing

Forsyth Barr

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel - 1H25 Result—Forging Ahead

Management provided a mixed but cautiously optimistic demand outlook, expecting volumes and pricing to firm gradually over the next 12 months.

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one change each for the NZX10 and NZX50 indices in March. Flows in the stocks are limited but impact is huge. A2Milk could have huge...

Brian Freitas

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