New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Vulcan Steel (VSL) 1Q26 trading update was largely as expected.</li><li>Volumes are slowly picking up from cyclical lows, but competitive pressure on price and margin remains.</li><li>VSL expects the recovery to strengthen over the year as: (1) lower interest rates lift NZ activity from a deep cyclical low; and (2) improving demand in Australia is underpinned by the Queensland Olympics build, an improving Victoria, and better long-steel pricing.</li></ul>

Vulcan Steel (VSL) 1Q26 trading update was largely as expected.Volumes are slowly picking up from cyclical lows, but competitive pressure on price and margin remains.VSL expects the recovery to strengthen over the year as: (1) lower interest rates lift NZ activity from a deep cyclical low; and (2) improving demand in Australia is underpinned by the Queensland Olympics build, an improving Victoria, and better long-steel pricing.

Vulcan Steel Vulcan Steel Climbing Off Cyclical Lows

<ul><li>We reinstate coverage on Vulcan Steel (VSL) with a NEUTRAL rating and a NZ$9.00 12-month target price.</li><li>We estimate that the acquisition of Roofing Industries will be mid-single-digit accretive in FY26 on a standalone basis, despite our estimate that its EBITDA falls -25% on the prior year on a like-for-like basis.</li><li>The key green shoot in the FY25 result was volume, which was up slightly in 2H25 compared to 1H25, measured on a tonnes-per-day basis.</li></ul>

We reinstate coverage on Vulcan Steel (VSL) with a NEUTRAL rating and a NZ$9.00 12-month target price.We estimate that the acquisition of Roofing Industries will be mid-single-digit accretive in FY26 on a standalone basis, despite our estimate that its EBITDA falls -25% on the prior year on a like-for-like basis.The key green shoot in the FY25 result was volume, which was up slightly in 2H25 compared to 1H25, measured on a tonnes-per-day basis.

Vulcan Steel A Roof Over Its Head, Reinstate NEUTRAL

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported its FY25 result and announced it has entered into a conditional agreement to acquire Roofing Industries Limited for NZ$88m.</li><li>VSL is seeking to raise A$87m (c.NZ$96m) of new equity through a 1-for-9 underwritten pro rata accelerated renounceable entitlement offer (AREO) to fund the acquisition.</li><li>The offer price is A$5.95, which is a -9.8% discount to the Monday, 26 August 2025 closing price of A$6.60 and a -9.0% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) of A$6.53.</li></ul>

Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported its FY25 result and announced it has entered into a conditional agreement to acquire Roofing Industries Limited for NZ$88m.VSL is seeking to raise A$87m (c.NZ$96m) of new equity through a 1-for-9 underwritten pro rata accelerated renounceable entitlement offer (AREO) to fund the acquisition.The offer price is A$5.95, which is a -9.8% discount to the Monday, 26 August 2025 closing price of A$6.60 and a -9.0% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) of A$6.53.

Vulcan Steel FY25 Result and Roofing Industries Acquisition

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Vulcan Steel (VSL) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>While expectations of a cyclical recovery continue to be pushed out, the downgrade cycle has largely run its course.</li><li>FY26 will be a year of two halves, with a pick-up expected in the back end.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Vulcan Steel (VSL) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.While expectations of a cyclical recovery continue to be pushed out, the downgrade cycle has largely run its course.FY26 will be a year of two halves, with a pick-up expected in the back end.

Vulcan Steel -  At The Trough, Up To OUTPERFORM

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>September-quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production showed a slight pick-up after a soft June quarter, with volumes up +2% on the prior quarter (seasonally adjusted).</li><li>Fletcher Building (FBU), Vulcan Steel (VSL), and Steel &amp; Tube (STU) all provided AGM trading updates in October.</li><li>The infrastructure pipeline is increasing, but it will take time for projects to move from earthworks to needing concrete and steel.</li></ul>

September-quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production showed a slight pick-up after a soft June quarter, with volumes up +2% on the prior quarter (seasonally adjusted).Fletcher Building (FBU), Vulcan Steel (VSL), and Steel &amp; Tube (STU) all provided AGM trading updates in October.The infrastructure pipeline is increasing, but it will take time for projects to move from earthworks to needing concrete and steel.

Building Sector Ready-Mix Concrete—In The Mixer

Australia

Vulcan Steel Ltd operates as a metals distributing and processing company. The Company offers stainless and engineering steel products. Vulcan Steel serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Vulcan Steel (VSL AU)

Vulcan Steel Vulcan Steel Climbing Off Cyclical Lows

Vulcan Steel (VSL) 1Q26 trading update was largely as expected. Volumes are slowly picking up from cyclical lows, but competitive pressure on price...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel A Roof Over Its Head, Reinstate NEUTRAL

The key green shoot in the FY25 result was volume, which was up slightly in 2H25 compared to 1H25, measured on a tonnes-per-day basis.

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel FY25 Result and Roofing Industries Acquisition

Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported its FY25 result and announced it has entered into a conditional agreement to acquire Roofing Industries Limited for...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel - At The Trough, Up To OUTPERFORM

We upgrade our rating on Vulcan Steel (VSL) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.While expectations of a cyclical recovery continue to be pushed out, the...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector Ready-Mix Concrete—In The Mixer

September-quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production showed a slight pick-up after a soft June quarter, with volumes up +2% on the prior quarter...

Forsyth Barr

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