High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>From 2010 to 2021, the median EV/revenue multiple of America’s leading consumer brand companies expanded from just 2x to over 5x.</li><li>The values of large consumer brands were skyrocketing. They were ideal vehicles to push products to oversaturated consumers.</li><li>Multiples have compressed since then. Today, markets deem a consumer brand revenue Dollar about 45% less valuable than they did in late 2021. </li></ul>

From 2010 to 2021, the median EV/revenue multiple of America’s leading consumer brand companies expanded from just 2x to over 5x.The values of large consumer brands were skyrocketing. They were ideal vehicles to push products to oversaturated consumers.Multiples have compressed since then. Today, markets deem a consumer brand revenue Dollar about 45% less valuable than they did in late 2021. 

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Walmart's electronic shelf label shipments are growing significantly, reflecting a shift in retail technology.</li><li>Sony aims for all suppliers to use 100% renewable energy by 2031, highlighting a commitment to sustainability.</li><li>The Tech Forum 2025 predicts AI and semiconductor convergence will boost the global market to $2 trillion by 2040.</li></ul>

Walmart's electronic shelf label shipments are growing significantly, reflecting a shift in retail technology.Sony aims for all suppliers to use 100% renewable energy by 2031, highlighting a commitment to sustainability.The Tech Forum 2025 predicts AI and semiconductor convergence will boost the global market to $2 trillion by 2040.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Sep-2025): Walmart sees record growth in electronic shelf

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Subsidy / In Depth: Why individuals may need to shoulder more of China’s social insurance burden </li><li>Law /Analysis: Why so few people are found not guilty in China</li><li>IPOs /: China may restart allowing unprofitable tech firms to list, sources say</li></ul>

Subsidy / In Depth: Why individuals may need to shoulder more of China’s social insurance burden Law /Analysis: Why so few people are found not guilty in ChinaIPOs /: China may restart allowing unprofitable tech firms to list, sources say

CX Daily: Why Individuals May Need to Shoulder More of China’s Social Insurance Burden 

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled with lots of predictions of whether each strong relief bounce we have in the market is “the bottom”.This past week, big box retailers like Target and Walmart saw big drawdowns after margins were impacted by rising shipping and labor costs while facing extremely difficult year-over-year comparatives.Given the current market drawdown, I also get the sense now that the emerging consensus and narrative of an imminent “crash” recession is what I call “one side of the boat” thinking which the market has a habit of doing the opposite.

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled with lots of predictions of whether each strong relief bounce we have in the market is “the bottom”.This past week, big box retailers like Target and Walmart saw big drawdowns after margins were impacted by rising shipping and labor costs while facing extremely difficult year-over-year comparatives.Given the current market drawdown, I also get the sense now that the emerging consensus and narrative of an imminent “crash” recession is what I call “one side of the boat” thinking which the market has a habit of doing the opposite.

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some wild moves, but again the most relevant price action is happening under the surface.</li><li>In such a choppy market environment, systematic risk management techniques and a data-driven investment approach are key to tell the forest from the trees and reduce drawdowns in your portfolio.</li><li>Powell played the hawkish horn again, and markets are reacting in quite some interesting ways.</li></ul>

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some wild moves, but again the most relevant price action is happening under the surface.In such a choppy market environment, systematic risk management techniques and a data-driven investment approach are key to tell the forest from the trees and reduce drawdowns in your portfolio.Powell played the hawkish horn again, and markets are reacting in quite some interesting ways.

United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

The Death of Consumer Brands?

From 2010 to 2021, the median EV/revenue multiple of America’s leading consumer brand companies expanded from just 2x to over 5x.

Fallacy Alarm

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Sep-2025): Walmart sees record growth in electronic shelf

Walmart's electronic shelf label growth, Sony's renewable energy push, and Tech Forum 2025's AI and semiconductor convergence highlight key trends...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 5/23

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Let The Macro Polar Stars Guide You

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Death of Consumer Brands?

From 2010 to 2021, the median EV/revenue multiple of America’s leading consumer brand companies expanded from just 2x to over 5x.

Fallacy Alarm

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Sep-2025): Walmart sees record growth in electronic shelf

Walmart's electronic shelf label growth, Sony's renewable energy push, and Tech Forum 2025's AI and semiconductor convergence highlight key trends...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

CX Daily: Why Individuals May Need to Shoulder More of China’s Social Insurance Burden

TOP STORIES Subsidy / In Depth: Why individuals may need to shoulder more of China’s social insurance burden In recent years, many local...

Caixin Global

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 5/23

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Let The Macro Polar Stars Guide You

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)