TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22's guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22's outperformance.</li>
<li>Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22's 7% leading to 3Q22's 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.</li>
<li>AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.</li>
</ul>


Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22's guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22's outperformance.
Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22's 7% leading to 3Q22's 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.
AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.


Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

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SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

<ul><li>One trend that has accelerated in the last few quarters is the pace of acquisitions being made by cash-rich companies.</li><li>The significant Macroeconomic uncertainties that lie ahead, coupled with record cash balances at the largest firms on Wall Street, have only accelerated the pace of industry consolidation.</li><li>It's no secret that high-quality De-SPACs with strong earnings have been prime takeover/acquisition targets in recent months after seeing their shares take a beating through the year.</li></ul>

One trend that has accelerated in the last few quarters is the pace of acquisitions being made by cash-rich companies.The significant Macroeconomic uncertainties that lie ahead, coupled with record cash balances at the largest firms on Wall Street, have only accelerated the pace of industry consolidation.It's no secret that high-quality De-SPACs with strong earnings have been prime takeover/acquisition targets in recent months after seeing their shares take a beating through the year.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>India's Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) is expected to break duopolies across the digital commerce ecosystem including e-marketplaces like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flipkart-online-services-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31076:1" rel="noopener">Flipkart Online Services (1398508D IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>. </li>
<li>We think it is the other way around. We expect them to thrive and become even more dominant in case the market expands as envisioned under ONDC. </li>
<li>While it could be too early &amp; premature, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> thanks to its investments in Flipkart and the path chosen by PhonePe is better placed compared to Amazon in India.</li>
</ul>


India's Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) is expected to break duopolies across the digital commerce ecosystem including e-marketplaces like Flipkart Online Services (1398508D IN) &amp; Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US). 
We think it is the other way around. We expect them to thrive and become even more dominant in case the market expands as envisioned under ONDC. 
While it could be too early &amp; premature, Walmart (WMT US) thanks to its investments in Flipkart and the path chosen by PhonePe is better placed compared to Amazon in India.


Walmart (WMT US) | Why Walmart Is Likely to Win in India's ONDC World Compared to Amazon

<ul><li>In an interesting turn of things, a leaked internal memo from Amazon dated back to the mid of 2021 showed that the company could run out of warehouse workers by 2024.</li><li>Amazon, along with Walmart and Target, continues to suffer from high staff turnover across logistics &amp; warehousing (the industry average stands at 49%, but is higher at the big three).</li><li>This has resulted in companies offering incentives, wage increases, and flexible working hours to retain top talent, with margins shrinking as a result.</li></ul>

In an interesting turn of things, a leaked internal memo from Amazon dated back to the mid of 2021 showed that the company could run out of warehouse workers by 2024.Amazon, along with Walmart and Target, continues to suffer from high staff turnover across logistics &amp; warehousing (the industry average stands at 49%, but is higher at the big three).This has resulted in companies offering incentives, wage increases, and flexible working hours to retain top talent, with margins shrinking as a result.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>During the #1 product and growth conference Amplify 2022 in Las Vegas, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amplitude-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34148:1" rel="noopener">Amplitude (AMPL US)</a>  introduced the Customer Data Platform (CDP) with integrated product analytics.  </li>
<li>The company expanded partner integration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snowflake-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29254:1" rel="noopener">Snowflake Inc (SNOW US)</a>  to improve data connectivity while Amplitude Experiment sees strong traction with customers. </li>
<li>With shares down ~65% YTD, Amplitude has underperformed the Nasdaq Composite (-23%). Our PT is $28.00, implying ~14x EV/2022E revenue and ~10x EV/2023E revenue. </li>
</ul>


During the #1 product and growth conference Amplify 2022 in Las Vegas, Amplitude (AMPL US)  introduced the Customer Data Platform (CDP) with integrated product analytics.  
The company expanded partner integration with Snowflake Inc (SNOW US)  to improve data connectivity while Amplitude Experiment sees strong traction with customers. 
With shares down ~65% YTD, Amplitude has underperformed the Nasdaq Composite (-23%). Our PT is $28.00, implying ~14x EV/2022E revenue and ~10x EV/2023E revenue. 


Amplitude: Valuations Look Attractive and Growth Catalysts May Materialize in CY22

United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

Amazon's revenue growth is beginning to reaccelerate. Its cost growth is decelerating. Advertising is the best house in a tough digital...

Aaron Gabin

Reinventing American Healthcare

The significant Macroeconomic uncertainties that lie ahead, coupled with record cash balances at the largest firms on Wall Street, have only...

subSPAC

Walmart (WMT US) | Why Walmart Is Likely to Win in India's ONDC World Compared to Amazon

The noise aside, we expect market places like Amazon and Flipkart to thrive in an ONDC world, with Walmart-owned Flipkart having a likely upper...

Pranav Bhavsar

Fixing the Supply Chain

In an interesting turn of things, a leaked internal memo from Amazon dated back to the mid of 2021 showed that the company could run out of...

subSPAC

Amplitude: Valuations Look Attractive and Growth Catalysts May Materialize in CY22

Amplitude remains well-positioned as one of the leaders in product analytics with an opportunity to convert more GA enterprise customers to...

Andrei Zakharov

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