Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January</li>
<li>North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December</li>
<li>Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January
North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December
Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/phonepe-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34788:1" rel="noopener">Phonepe</a> is looking to list on the Indian exchanges with pre-IPO investors looking to sell 50.66m shares at a valuation of US$13.1bn and raising around US$1.3bn in the IPO.</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in September.</li>
<li>The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in July and to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> in September.</li>
</ul>



Phonepe is looking to list on the Indian exchanges with pre-IPO investors looking to sell 50.66m shares at a valuation of US$13.1bn and raising around US$1.3bn in the IPO.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in September.
The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in July and to the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index in September.


PhonePe IPO: Limited Float & Index Inclusion Timeline

<ul>
<li>A new civil lawsuit filed in Arizona mainly focuses on data collection, privacy issues</li>
<li>We believe US operating environment remains extremely challenging for Temu, SHEIN</li>
<li>Recent media reports suggest a dramatic decline in inbound parcel volume after August</li>
</ul>


A new civil lawsuit filed in Arizona mainly focuses on data collection, privacy issues
We believe US operating environment remains extremely challenging for Temu, SHEIN
Recent media reports suggest a dramatic decline in inbound parcel volume after August


Temu Faces New US Lawsuit in Arizona | Import Parcels Decline Sharply Since End of 'de Minimis'

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>We have revised up our earnings estimates for Systems Limited (SYS) by 5-8% (pre dilution: 9-12%) for 2026/27 to Rs11.73/15.19 per share, primarily due to the ongoing acquisitions — particularly that of Confiz Limited.</li><li>Systems Limited (SYS) recently announced the acquisition of Confiz Limited, one of Pakistan’s top 3 IT services firms. Confiz has a strong specialization in the retail and consumer packaged goods (CPG) verticals, supported by a high-value client base that includes retail chains such as Walmart, Nordstrom and Macy’s.</li><li>The acquired company’s core offerings include software development, cloud enablement, data & analytics, and enterprise solutions with a particular focus on the Microsoft ecosystem, including Dynamics 365 and Power Platform.</li></ul>

We have revised up our earnings estimates for Systems Limited (SYS) by 5-8% (pre dilution: 9-12%) for 2026/27 to Rs11.73/15.19 per share, primarily due to the ongoing acquisitions — particularly that of Confiz Limited.Systems Limited (SYS) recently announced the acquisition of Confiz Limited, one of Pakistan’s top 3 IT services firms. Confiz has a strong specialization in the retail and consumer packaged goods (CPG) verticals, supported by a high-value client base that includes retail chains such as Walmart, Nordstrom and Macy’s.The acquired company’s core offerings include software development, cloud enablement, data & analytics, and enterprise solutions with a particular focus on the Microsoft ecosystem, including Dynamics 365 and Power Platform.

Systems Limited (SYS) - Growth Through Strategic Acquisitions; Earnings Revised Up; Buy Stance Maintained

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).</li>
<li>The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna's metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. </li>
<li>The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.</li>
</ul>


Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna's metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. 
The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.


Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

Underlying supply-demand conditions for deep sea container carriers remain weak, with poor US consumer sentiment and rapid capacity growth. A Suez...

Tracking Traffic

PhonePe IPO: Limited Float & Index Inclusion Timeline

Phonepe's IPO could raise US$1.3bn and value the company at US$13.1bn. Index inclusions could start in September and the stock will be added to the...

Brian Freitas

Temu Faces New US Lawsuit in Arizona | Import Parcels Decline Sharply Since End of 'de Minimis'

In this insight we examine a new civil lawsuit filed against Temu in the US state of Arizona. We also review a range of numbers suggesting a sharp...

Tracking Traffic

Systems Limited (SYS) - Growth Through Strategic Acquisitions; Earnings Revised Up; Buy Stance Maintained

We have revised up our earnings estimates for Systems Limited (SYS) by 5-8% (pre dilution: 9-12%) for 2026/27 to Rs11.73/15.19 per share,...

Topline Securities

Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

Backed by major venture capital investors a steep discount at IPO may attract both new buyers and existing holders for Klarna Group's IPO.

IPO Boutique

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