HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to increasing competition/price reduction/overcapacity issue, outlook of domestic vaccine companies isn't optimistic, which has been reflected in 24Q1 results. However, there’s also a "special one" that deserves investors' attention.</li>
<li>The status of medical insurance funds is improving rather than deteriorating, but we’re currently in the first half of the decade with the highest pressure on medical insurance.</li>
<li>As the H.R.8333 proposal faced obstacles in the process of being included in NDAA, WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio’s shares once rebounded.We remain conservative as situation is not as simple as imagined.</li>
</ul>


Due to increasing competition/price reduction/overcapacity issue, outlook of domestic vaccine companies isn't optimistic, which has been reflected in 24Q1 results. However, there’s also a "special one" that deserves investors' attention.
The status of medical insurance funds is improving rather than deteriorating, but we’re currently in the first half of the decade with the highest pressure on medical insurance.
As the H.R.8333 proposal faced obstacles in the process of being included in NDAA, WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio’s shares once rebounded.We remain conservative as situation is not as simple as imagined.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun16)-WuXi Get A "Reprieve", Vaccine Company in Trouble, Insurance Surplus

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Beijing Wantai Biological Phar / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-wantai-biological-phar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30129:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH)</a> announced that its net profit for 2023 declined 71–75% YoY to RMB1.20–1.35B mainly due to the market competition.</li>
<li>China’s HPV vaccine market is highly competitive. Beijing Wantai has no presence in higher valent HPV vaccine segment, which dominates the domestic market.</li>
<li>Although the company will be one of the early movers in domestically developed nonavalent HPV vaccines, at least three more players will follow soon, thereby making the space more competitive.</li>
</ul>



Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH) announced that its net profit for 2023 declined 71–75% YoY to RMB1.20–1.35B mainly due to the market competition.
China’s HPV vaccine market is highly competitive. Beijing Wantai has no presence in higher valent HPV vaccine segment, which dominates the domestic market.
Although the company will be one of the early movers in domestically developed nonavalent HPV vaccines, at least three more players will follow soon, thereby making the space more competitive.


Beijing Wantai Biological (603392 CH): Struggling to Make a Mark in Murky China HPV Vaccine Market

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech - They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.</li>
<li>Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.</li>
<li>Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.</li>
</ul>


The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech - They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.
Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.
Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.


Pre-IPO Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology - The Story of the HPV Vaccine Is Not as Good as Imagined

<ul>
<li>Based on the current situation, sales of MCV4 in 2023 could still be unsatisfactory. We think MCV4 is hard to become the second growth curve of CanSino in post-COVID era.</li>
<li>Whether CanSino’s zoster vaccine is able to become Best-In-Class would largely determine whether this product would truly become the next blockbuster vaccine to turn the situation around for CanSino. </li>
<li>CanSino's commercialized products cannot contribute large-scale revenue in time to prevent continuous deterioration of performance. Results in 2023 could be lower than expected, and investors are losing confidence in CanSino.</li>
</ul>


Based on the current situation, sales of MCV4 in 2023 could still be unsatisfactory. We think MCV4 is hard to become the second growth curve of CanSino in post-COVID era.
Whether CanSino’s zoster vaccine is able to become Best-In-Class would largely determine whether this product would truly become the next blockbuster vaccine to turn the situation around for CanSino. 
CanSino's commercialized products cannot contribute large-scale revenue in time to prevent continuous deterioration of performance. Results in 2023 could be lower than expected, and investors are losing confidence in CanSino.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/​688185.CH) - The Story Has Changed

<ul>
<li>The investment logic of vaccine companies is different that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on big vaccine varieties.</li>
<li>The most fatal problem of CanSino is that there’re no other blockbuster varieties except COVID-19 vaccine. So, either CanSino develops a big variety,or it would gradually enter a vicious circle.</li>
<li>CanSino’s current valuation is at a low level. Even with many negative factors, that doesn't mean CanSino's stock price won't rebound. </li>
</ul>


The investment logic of vaccine companies is different that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on big vaccine varieties.
The most fatal problem of CanSino is that there’re no other blockbuster varieties except COVID-19 vaccine. So, either CanSino develops a big variety,or it would gradually enter a vicious circle.
CanSino’s current valuation is at a low level. Even with many negative factors, that doesn't mean CanSino's stock price won't rebound. 


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results - It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects

China

Walvax Biotechnology Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells bio-pharmaceutical vaccination products.  The Company's products include haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine and meningococcal group A,C bivalent polysaccharide conjugate vaccine.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Walvax Biotechnology Co A (300142 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun16)-WuXi Get A "Reprieve", Vaccine Company in Trouble, Insurance Surplus

Outlook for domestic vaccine companies is bleak, but one standout. Medical insurance status is improving. WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio shares rebounded as...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392 CH): Struggling to Make a Mark in Murky China HPV Vaccine Market

Beijing Wantai expects 70%+ decline in net profit in 2023 due to competition. Going ahead, competition is expected to intensify further in China...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology - The Story of the HPV Vaccine Is Not as Good as Imagined

The real China’s HPV vaccine market could be smaller-than-expected.After being included in National Immunization Program, vaccine business will be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - The Story Has Changed

MCV4's sales could be sluggish this year, so CanSino's investment logic has completely changed.Due to a lack of potential to become a great vaccine...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results - It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects

CanSino had poor performance last year,but share price could bounce back in the next “sector resonance".There's no long-term investment value until...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun16)-WuXi Get A "Reprieve", Vaccine Company in Trouble, Insurance Surplus

​Outlook for domestic vaccine companies is bleak, but one standout. Medical insurance status is improving. WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio shares rebounded as...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392 CH): Struggling to Make a Mark in Murky China HPV Vaccine Market

Beijing Wantai expects 70%+ decline in net profit in 2023 due to competition. Going ahead, competition is expected to intensify further in China...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology - The Story of the HPV Vaccine Is Not as Good as Imagined

The real China’s HPV vaccine market could be smaller-than-expected.After being included in National Immunization Program, vaccine business will be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/​688185.CH) - The Story Has Changed

MCV4's sales could be sluggish this year, so CanSino's investment logic has completely changed.Due to a lack of potential to become a great vaccine...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results - It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects

CanSino had poor performance last year,but share price could bounce back in the next “sector resonance".There's no long-term investment value until...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Outlook for domestic vaccine companies is bleak, but one standout. Medical insurance status is improving. WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio shares rebounded as...

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - The Story Has Changed