New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Warehouse Group Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported an improved FY26.</li><li>Red Sheds remains our key area of concern, with the business delivering a -NZ$17m operating loss in 2H26.</li><li>We acknowledge that WHS has de-rated to ~8.5x 12-month forward PE (compared to recent history of ~10x PE), and the operating leverage in this business is large.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported an improved FY26.Red Sheds remains our key area of concern, with the business delivering a -NZ$17m operating loss in 2H26.We acknowledge that WHS has de-rated to ~8.5x 12-month forward PE (compared to recent history of ~10x PE), and the operating leverage in this business is large.

The Warehouse Group FY26 Result—Some Progress in Store

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group provided an in-line FY26 result, with operating profit (EBIT pre-IFRS 16) of NZ$22.6m towards the upper end of its guidance range and +6% ahead of our estimates.</li><li>Sales through the first eight weeks of FY27 were flat on the prior year (we forecast +2% sales growth in FY27) though margins are improving.</li><li>The focus in FY27 will be on further margin recovery, overhead reductions and working capital discipline as WHS navigates what is a challenging trading environment.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group provided an in-line FY26 result, with operating profit (EBIT pre-IFRS 16) of NZ$22.6m towards the upper end of its guidance range and +6% ahead of our estimates.Sales through the first eight weeks of FY27 were flat on the prior year (we forecast +2% sales growth in FY27) though margins are improving.The focus in FY27 will be on further margin recovery, overhead reductions and working capital discipline as WHS navigates what is a challenging trading environment.

The Warehouse Group (WHS) - FY26 Result Initial Impressions

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) provided first-time operating profit (pre-IFRS 16 EBIT) guidance of NZ$20mNZ$24m, meaningfully above both our (NZ$11m profit) and consensus (~NZ$17m) estimates.</li><li>While an improvement versus expectations, guidance still implies an operating loss between NZ$3mNZ$7m in 2H26.</li><li>Gross margin improvement in Red Sheds was the key beat versus our expectations, though little colour was provided on the drivers or sustainability of the margin uplift.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) provided first-time operating profit (pre-IFRS 16 EBIT) guidance of NZ$20mNZ$24m, meaningfully above both our (NZ$11m profit) and consensus (~NZ$17m) estimates.While an improvement versus expectations, guidance still implies an operating loss between NZ$3mNZ$7m in 2H26.Gross margin improvement in Red Sheds was the key beat versus our expectations, though little colour was provided on the drivers or sustainability of the margin uplift.

The Warehouse Group a Lighter Shade of Red

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) provided first time FY26 operating profit (pre-IFRS 16 EBIT) guidance of NZ$20m to NZ$24m.</li><li>This is ahead of our forecast of NZ$11m and Visible Alpha consensus of NZ$17m.</li><li>The guidance range implies a 2H26 operating profit loss of NZ$2m to NZ$7m, compared to the NZ$18m operating profit loss printed in 2H25.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) provided first time FY26 operating profit (pre-IFRS 16 EBIT) guidance of NZ$20m to NZ$24m.This is ahead of our forecast of NZ$11m and Visible Alpha consensus of NZ$17m.The guidance range implies a 2H26 operating profit loss of NZ$2m to NZ$7m, compared to the NZ$18m operating profit loss printed in 2H25.

The Warehouse Group (WHS) — FY26 Earnings Guidance

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) saw mixed performances across its businesses in 3Q26.</li><li>The key disappointment was Red Sheds, which saw both sales and gross margins fall through 3Q26 and is on track to match the -NZ$25m EBIT loss it delivered in 2H25.</li><li>Partially offsetting this were better sales and gross margin performances in Blue Sheds and Noel Leeming, as well as ongoing head-office cost reductions.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) saw mixed performances across its businesses in 3Q26.The key disappointment was Red Sheds, which saw both sales and gross margins fall through 3Q26 and is on track to match the -NZ$25m EBIT loss it delivered in 2H25.Partially offsetting this were better sales and gross margin performances in Blue Sheds and Noel Leeming, as well as ongoing head-office cost reductions.

The Warehouse Group 3Q26 Trading Update—In The Red

New Zealand

The Warehouse Group Limited operates general merchandise and stationery supply retail stores throughout New Zealand.

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Warehouse Group Limited (WHS NZ)

The Warehouse Group FY26 Result—Some Progress in Store

The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported an improved FY26. Red Sheds remains our key area of concern, with the business delivering a -NZ$17m operating...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group (WHS) - FY26 Result Initial Impressions

The Warehouse Group provided an in-line FY26 result, with operating profit (EBIT pre-IFRS 16) of NZ$22.6m towards the upper end of its guidance...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group a Lighter Shade of Red

The Warehouse Group (WHS) provided first-time operating profit (pre-IFRS 16 EBIT) guidance of NZ$20mNZ$24m, meaningfully above both our (NZ$11m...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group (WHS) — FY26 Earnings Guidance

The Warehouse Group (WHS) provided first time FY26 operating profit (pre-IFRS 16 EBIT) guidance of NZ$20m to NZ$24m. This is ahead of our forecast...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group 3Q26 Trading Update—In The Red

The Warehouse Group (WHS) saw mixed performances across its businesses in 3Q26. The key disappointment was Red Sheds, which saw both sales and...

Forsyth Barr

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