IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Cleanaway Waste Management / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EQT has reconfirmed its A$3.13 offer (A$3.095 net of dividend) for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transpacific-industries-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19885:1" rel="noopener">Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU)</a> three times. Financing is well covered, and a SID looks likely.</li>
<li>Shares fell 3.6% to A$2.66 today, likely reflecting sell-the-news profit-taking, a third exclusivity extension, growing institutional opposition and the 22 October AGM overhang.</li>
<li>The scheme vote should pass, as confirmed dissent (10.3%) is insufficient to block it, but industry funds (14%) joining and the AGM spill risk make it contested, not a formality.</li>
</ul>


EQT has reconfirmed its A$3.13 offer (A$3.095 net of dividend) for Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU) three times. Financing is well covered, and a SID looks likely.
Shares fell 3.6% to A$2.66 today, likely reflecting sell-the-news profit-taking, a third exclusivity extension, growing institutional opposition and the 22 October AGM overhang.
The scheme vote should pass, as confirmed dissent (10.3%) is insufficient to block it, but industry funds (14%) joining and the AGM spill risk make it contested, not a formality.


Cleanaway (CWY AU): EQT Deal on Track, but the Vote Won’t Be a Formality

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Waste Connections Inc. reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2025, driven by strong execution in operations, despite the prevailing economic uncertainties.</li><li>The company recorded a revenue of $2.458 billion for the quarter, representing a 5.1% year-over-year increase, supported by a 6.3% growth in solid waste pricing and acquisitions contributing $77 million in revenues.</li><li>However, reported volumes were slightly down by 2.7%, attributed to the strategy of shedding low-margin contracts and sluggishness in certain segments like construction-oriented activities.</li></ul>

Waste Connections Inc. reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2025, driven by strong execution in operations, despite the prevailing economic uncertainties.The company recorded a revenue of $2.458 billion for the quarter, representing a 5.1% year-over-year increase, supported by a 6.3% growth in solid waste pricing and acquisitions contributing $77 million in revenues.However, reported volumes were slightly down by 2.7%, attributed to the strategy of shedding low-margin contracts and sluggishness in certain segments like construction-oriented activities.

Waste Connections: Expansion of Recycling & Waste Diversion Facilities

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transpacific-industries-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19885:1" rel="noopener">Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding proposal from EQT at A$3.13, a 32.1% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.37.</li>
<li>The Board has granted a nine-week exclusivity period. While the offer represents a 10-year high and is attractive compared to precedent transactions, it is light compared to peer multiples. </li>
<li>A restive shareholder base underscored by the last AGM results is a risk. However, with a turnaround remaining elusive (FY2027 EBIT downgrade), most shareholders will grudgingly accept it. </li>
</ul>



Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from EQT at A$3.13, a 32.1% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.37.
The Board has granted a nine-week exclusivity period. While the offer represents a 10-year high and is attractive compared to precedent transactions, it is light compared to peer multiples. 
A restive shareholder base underscored by the last AGM results is a risk. However, with a turnaround remaining elusive (FY2027 EBIT downgrade), most shareholders will grudgingly accept it. 


Cleanaway (CWY AU): EQT’s Non-Binding Offer Provokes Mixed Feelings

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

United States

Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste collection services for commercial, industrial and residential customers. The Company offers collection, landfill disposal, and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, office paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals.

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Waste Connections (WCN CN)

Cleanaway (CWY AU): EQT Deal on Track, but the Vote Won’t Be a Formality

EQT's thrice-reconfirmed offer points to a SID, but shares fell 3.6% today to A$2.66. The scheme vote should pass if dissent stays contained.

Arun George

Waste Connections: Expansion of Recycling & Waste Diversion Facilities

Waste Connections Inc. reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2025, driven by strong execution in operations, despite the...

Baptista Research

Cleanaway (CWY AU): EQT’s Non-Binding Offer Provokes Mixed Feelings

The AFR reports that EQT’s Cleanaway takeover is progressing: 15 lenders, including major Australian, Japanese, French and Canadian banks, are...

Arun George

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

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