Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,569/1,579 points and the support at 1,556/1,550 points.</li><li>We recommend trading buy on BBL, WHA and ERW.</li><li>Technically, the index may rise to 1,597 points in a W-shaped double-bottom pattern if it manages to close positive today; on the other hand, there will be a new selling sign if the index falls below the support at 1,556 points.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,569/1,579 points and the support at 1,556/1,550 points.We recommend trading buy on BBL, WHA and ERW.Technically, the index may rise to 1,597 points in a W-shaped double-bottom pattern if it manages to close positive today; on the other hand, there will be a new selling sign if the index falls below the support at 1,556 points.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,628/1,617 points (200-day EMA).</li><li>Negative momentum today will be generated by the Fed maintaining its hawkish stance, signaling that it will continue raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation, despite its decision to hike rates by 0.75% yesterday, as expected.</li><li>The Fed also raised its core CPI projection from +4.3% to +4.5% for year-end 2022E and revised up its forecasts to +3.1%, +2.3% and +2.1% for 2023E, 2024E and 2025E, respectively.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,628/1,617 points (200-day EMA).Negative momentum today will be generated by the Fed maintaining its hawkish stance, signaling that it will continue raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation, despite its decision to hike rates by 0.75% yesterday, as expected.The Fed also raised its core CPI projection from +4.3% to +4.5% for year-end 2022E and revised up its forecasts to +3.1%, +2.3% and +2.1% for 2023E, 2024E and 2025E, respectively.

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input.  </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva Inc.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input.  
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva Inc.


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (1379371D IJ)</a> is the leading digital ecosystem in Southeast Asia. It seeking to raise up to $1.3 billion. Bookbuilding ends on 21 March.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/goto-gojek-tokopedia-ipo-initiation-island-shopping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67047" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO Initiation: Island Shopping</a>, we noted that the fundamentals are mixed as the high growth is accompanied by ongoing losses and cash burn. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



GoTo (1379371D IJ) is the leading digital ecosystem in Southeast Asia. It seeking to raise up to $1.3 billion. Bookbuilding ends on 21 March.
In GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO Initiation: Island Shopping, we noted that the fundamentals are mixed as the high growth is accompanied by ongoing losses and cash burn. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. 


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Valuation Insights

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>, which means 'opening a kiosk' in Indonesian, is a leading e-commerce player in non-Tier 1 cities in Indonesia, with a market share of 35% in 2020 based on GMV (gross merchandise value), according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </p>
<p>Bukalapak will price its IPO at the top-end of its indicative price range of Rp750-850 per share, according to press reports. Bukalapak will raise Rp22 trillion ($1.5 billion) which will be Indonesia's largest-ever IPO. The shares are set to list on 6 August. </p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bukalapak-ipo-initiation-island-shopping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54584" rel="noopener">Bukalapak IPO Initiation: Island Shopping</a>, we noted that like its peers, Bukalapak is benefiting from the accelerating adoption of e-commerce in Indonesia. Bukalapak’s strategy of focusing on consumers in the non-Tier 1 area and the mass market in the Tier 1 area results in a relatively small overlap (less than 20%) between its customers and customers of other online marketplaces such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>'s Shopee, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>'s Lazada. Competitors generally target the affluent segment of the market. We concluded that Bukalapak's fundamentals tick all the right boxes of rising monetisation, lower losses and declining cash burn, in our view. </p></div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO.</p></div>


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ), which means 'opening a kiosk' in Indonesian, is a leading e-commerce player in non-Tier 1 cities in Indonesia, with a market share of 35% in 2020 based on GMV (gross merchandise value), according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
Bukalapak will price its IPO at the top-end of its indicative price range of Rp750-850 per share, according to press reports. Bukalapak will raise Rp22 trillion ($1.5 billion) which will be Indonesia's largest-ever IPO. The shares are set to list on 6 August. 
In Bukalapak IPO Initiation: Island Shopping, we noted that like its peers, Bukalapak is benefiting from the accelerating adoption of e-commerce in Indonesia. Bukalapak’s strategy of focusing on consumers in the non-Tier 1 area and the mass market in the Tier 1 area results in a relatively small overlap (less than 20%) between its customers and customers of other online marketplaces such as Sea Ltd (SE US)'s Shopee, Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) and Alibaba Group (BABA US)'s Lazada. Competitors generally target the affluent segment of the market. We concluded that Bukalapak's fundamentals tick all the right boxes of rising monetisation, lower losses and declining cash burn, in our view. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO.

United States

Wayfair Inc. retails household goods online. The Company offers bedroom, living room, kitchen and dining, home entertainment, home office, game room and bar, patio, hallway and entryway, and bathroom furniture. Wayfair offers products and services in the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Wayfair Inc Class A (W US)

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,569/1,579 points and the support at 1,556/1,550 points. We recommend...

Krungthai XSpring

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,628/1,617 points (200-day EMA). Negative...

Krungthai XSpring

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: BridgeBio, Wayfair,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. Books will close on 21 March....

Arun George

Bukalapak IPO: Valuation Insights

Bukalapak will price its IPO at the top-end of its indicative price range of Rp750-850 per share, according to press reports. Our valuation...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)