Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/region-re-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20100:1" rel="noopener">Region Group (RGN AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waypoint-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22851:1" rel="noopener">Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)</a> Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>The relative value opportunity can be implemented as a long-short pair trade or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.  </li>
<li>This Insight provides a target return, discusses trade setup, liquidity and risk management strategies.</li>
</ul>


The Region Group (RGN AU) vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
The relative value opportunity can be implemented as a long-short pair trade or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.  
This Insight provides a target return, discusses trade setup, liquidity and risk management strategies.


Relative Value Opportunity: Region Group (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> acquired unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn. This was discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/fJECF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management</a>. </li>
<li>Included in the transaction (completed early-2022) was ARA's ~30.7% stake in office play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a>. </li>
<li>ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the narrative?</li>
</ul>


Back in August 2021, ESR Group (1821 HK) acquired unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn. This was discussed in ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management. 
Included in the transaction (completed early-2022) was ARA's ~30.7% stake in office play Cromwell Property (CMW AU). 
ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the narrative?


Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?

Hotel Property Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Declaring its Offer unconditional was always a possibility as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> board continues to reject terms. The alternative was a likely deal fail.</li>
<li>Charter Halls currently has 31.37%, including 6.66% via the acceptance facility.  That facility has now closed following this unconditional statement. </li>
<li>It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and recommend shareholders accept terms.</li>
</ul>


Declaring its Offer unconditional was always a possibility as Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) board continues to reject terms. The alternative was a likely deal fail.
Charter Halls currently has 31.37%, including 6.66% via the acceptance facility.  That facility has now closed following this unconditional statement. 
It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and recommend shareholders accept terms.


Hotel Properties (HPI AU): Charter Hall Declares Offer Unconditional

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance ended on 29 November. There could be one deletion, plus there will be capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waypoint-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22851:1" rel="noopener">Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)</a> is the lowest ranked current index constituent and is very close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>We estimate the one deletion and capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 3.6% resulting in a one-way trade of A$23m.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance ended on 29 November. There could be one deletion, plus there will be capping changes.

Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) is the lowest ranked current index constituent and is very close to the deletion threshold.
We estimate the one deletion and capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 3.6% resulting in a one-way trade of A$23m.


MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th September, pub play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> announced - and summarily <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240909/pdf/067ntttrhq85j9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-retail-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11375:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Charter Hall has now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241018/pdf/0698jwgh9vfx9k.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased terms to A$3.85/share</a> (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. </li>
<li>
HPI's <a href="https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2024/10/18/charter-hall-ups-the-ante-with-final-hpi-bid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th September, pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) announced - and summarily rejected - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
Charter Hall has now increased terms to A$3.85/share (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. 

HPI's reported response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."


Australia

Waypoint REIT Limited (previously Viva Energy REIT) operates as a real estate investment trust. The Trust owns a portfolio of service station sites located throughout Australia.  Viva Energy REIT also acquires fuel refining and retailing businesses.

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Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

Relative Value Opportunity: Region Group (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

The Region Group vs. Waypoint REIT price ratio presents a potential relative value opportunity for investors to explore through pair trades or...

Gaudenz Schneider

Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?

ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the...

David Blennerhassett

Hotel Properties (HPI AU): Charter Hall Declares Offer Unconditional

It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and...

David Blennerhassett

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes

Waypoint REIT is the lowest ranked constituent and close to the deletion threshold. There will be capping changes for 5 stocks. Estimated 1-way...

Brian Freitas

Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid

I expected Charter Hall to nudge the terms higher to secure board support. But I don't believe a 5% bump will cut it. If an arbitrageur, I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunity: Region Group (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

​The Region Group vs. Waypoint REIT price ratio presents a potential relative value opportunity for investors to explore through pair trades or...

Gaudenz Schneider

Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?

ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the...

David Blennerhassett

Hotel Properties (HPI AU): Charter Hall Declares Offer Unconditional

It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and...

David Blennerhassett

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes

Waypoint REIT is the lowest ranked constituent and close to the deletion threshold. There will be capping changes for 5 stocks. Estimated 1-way...

Brian Freitas

Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid

I expected Charter Hall to nudge the terms higher to secure board support. But I don't believe a 5% bump will cut it. If an arbitrageur, I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

The Region Group vs. Waypoint REIT price ratio presents a potential relative value opportunity for investors to explore through pair trades or...