Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down, with the resistance at 1,463/1,474 points and the support at 1,444/1,441 points (50-day EMA).</li><li>Thailand: Prime Minister Paetongtarn has scheduled the first meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee to discuss short-term, medium-term, and long-term measures, as well as projects from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Commerce, and others, including the Digital Wallet Phase 2 project.</li><li>A survey by BofA of 179 global fund managers, managing a total NAV of USD503bn, conducted between November 1-7, revealed a shift in outlook on global inflation, moving from a downward trend to an upward one over the next 12 months, largely in response to Donald Trump's economic stimulus policies.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down, with the resistance at 1,463/1,474 points and the support at 1,444/1,441 points (50-day EMA).Thailand: Prime Minister Paetongtarn has scheduled the first meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee to discuss short-term, medium-term, and long-term measures, as well as projects from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Commerce, and others, including the Digital Wallet Phase 2 project.A survey by BofA of 179 global fund managers, managing a total NAV of USD503bn, conducted between November 1-7, revealed a shift in outlook on global inflation, moving from a downward trend to an upward one over the next 12 months, largely in response to Donald Trump's economic stimulus policies.

First Meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,365 points and 1,360 points (1/2 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,404 points) and the resistance at 1,375/1,380 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA).</li><li>Flash manufacturing and services PMIs in May: Japan's figures (Jibun Bank) are expected at 50.2/53.8 (vs. April at 49.6/54.3); the figures in the EU (HBOC) are forecast at 46.6/53.4 (vs. 45.7/53.3 in April); and the readings in the US (S&P Global) are expected at 50.1/51.3 (vs. 50.0/51.3 in April).</li><li>Should the figures surpass expectations, they will signal positive trends in international exports.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,365 points and 1,360 points (1/2 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,404 points) and the resistance at 1,375/1,380 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA).Flash manufacturing and services PMIs in May: Japan's figures (Jibun Bank) are expected at 50.2/53.8 (vs. April at 49.6/54.3); the figures in the EU (HBOC) are forecast at 46.6/53.4 (vs. 45.7/53.3 in April); and the readings in the US (S&P Global) are expected at 50.1/51.3 (vs. 50.0/51.3 in April).Should the figures surpass expectations, they will signal positive trends in international exports.

Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Japan, the EU and the US

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,424 points (25-day EMA) / 1,431 points and the support at 1,407 points (10-day EMA)/1,400 points.</li><li>Any indication of higher-for-longer rates could exert a negative impact on markets.</li><li>If the number of bidders falls short of the supply, indicating diminished demand, this could adversely affect US equity markets, especially the loan and mortgage sectors, as well as global equity markets.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,424 points (25-day EMA) / 1,431 points and the support at 1,407 points (10-day EMA)/1,400 points.Any indication of higher-for-longer rates could exert a negative impact on markets.If the number of bidders falls short of the supply, indicating diminished demand, this could adversely affect US equity markets, especially the loan and mortgage sectors, as well as global equity markets.

Wait for Rate Signals From Fed Chairman and Presidents

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery.</li><li>Total ad spend returned to positive growth of 15% YoY in April 2023, per CTR.</li><li>However, overall ad spend has yet to recover to the 2021 level, with ad spending in Apr 2023 only reached 92% of the ad spend level in Apr 2021. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery.Total ad spend returned to positive growth of 15% YoY in April 2023, per CTR.However, overall ad spend has yet to recover to the 2021 level, with ad spending in Apr 2023 only reached 92% of the ad spend level in Apr 2021. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – 2Q23 online advertising: recovery in cautious mode

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600 points.</li><li>The Bank of Thailand expects the Thai economy in 3Q22E to grow more than 3% YoY, improving from the 2Q22 figure of +2.5% YoY and 1Q22's +2.2% YoY.</li><li>BofA's survey of 272 fund managers from November 4-10 showed that the global economy is at high risk of a recession (77%) and stagflation (92%).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600 points.The Bank of Thailand expects the Thai economy in 3Q22E to grow more than 3% YoY, improving from the 2Q22 figure of +2.5% YoY and 1Q22's +2.2% YoY.BofA's survey of 272 fund managers from November 4-10 showed that the global economy is at high risk of a recession (77%) and stagflation (92%).

China

Weibo Corporation operates a leading social media platform in China, enabling users to create, discover, and distribute Chinese-language content. The company primarily generates revenue through advertising and marketing services, alongside value-added services such as membership and online games. It is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2009.

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Weibo (9898 HK)

First Meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down, with the resistance at 1,463/1,474 points and the support at 1,444/1,441 points...

Krungthai XSpring

Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Japan, the EU and the US

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,365 points and 1,360 points (1/2 of the Fibonacci range of...

Krungthai XSpring

Wait for Rate Signals From Fed Chairman and Presidents

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,424 points (25-day EMA) / 1,431 points and the support at 1,407...

Krungthai XSpring

China Internet – 2Q23 online advertising: recovery in cautious mode

China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery. Total ad spend returned to positive...

CMB International

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600 points. The...

Krungthai XSpring

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