Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boj-the-80-trillion-yen-question" target="_blank">forecast by Europacifica</a>, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160729a.pdf" target="_blank">ETF purchases</a> from JPY3.3trn to JPY6trn by a 7-2 majority vote.  - As anticipated, the BOJ refrained from extreme policies such as unlimited monetisation of government debt ("helicopter money").  - The BOJ also declined to further distort the measure of inflation expectations encapsulated in the JGBi market, or to pressure liquidity further by increasing the…

As forecast by Europacifica, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its ETF purchases from JPY3.3trn to JPY6trn by a 7-2 majority vote.  - As anticipated, the BOJ refrained from extreme policies such as unlimited monetisation of government debt ("helicopter money").  - The BOJ also declined to further distort the measure of inflation expectations encapsulated in the JGBi market, or to pressure liquidity further by increasing the…

BOJ Outcome: Symbolic Stimulus (As We Predicted)

The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome.   Although expectations of easing are building (including, according to Nikkei reports, within the BOJ), we see reasons why the BOJ may choose to adopt more modest easing measures than markets expect.Earlier this week, markets were not greatly surprised by the Fed’s upbeat tone on 27 July, but as the FOMC left rates on hold, judging that  “[n<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160727a.htm" target="_blank">]ear-term risks to the economic outlook</a>…

The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome.   Although expectations of easing are building (including, according to Nikkei reports, within the BOJ), we see reasons why the BOJ may choose to adopt more modest easing measures than markets expect.Earlier this week, markets were not greatly surprised by the Fed’s upbeat tone on 27 July, but as the FOMC left rates on hold, judging that  “[n]ear-term risks to the economic outlook…

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

<ul>
<li>Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom (4917 JP)</a>. KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.</li>
<li>Panama’s Supreme Court dings <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a>'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.</li>
</ul>


Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for Mandom (4917 JP). KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.
Panama’s Supreme Court dings CK Hutchison (1 HK)'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.


Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

<ul>
<li>I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - kinda surprising.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iress-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15342:1" rel="noopener">Iress  (IRE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth Group (751 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - kinda surprising.
Key updates/news also took place on: Bluescope Steel (BSL AU), Iress  (IRE AU), Skyworth Group (751 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), and Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP).



Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Bluescope Steel, Iress, Skyworth, Toyota Inds., Raksul, Sankei Real Estate

Japan

WELCIA HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. is a holding company established through a merger of Welcia Kanto and Takada Pharmacy.  The Group mainly operates drug chain stores which sell medicines, health foods, cosmetics, nursery items and daily necessity goods.

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Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)

BOJ Outcome: Symbolic Stimulus (As We Predicted)

As forecast by Europacifica, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its ETF...

Naomi Fink

BOJ: The 80 Trillion Yen Question

The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome. Although expectations of...

Naomi Fink

Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

For the month of Jan 2026, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$8bn. The average premium for these new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Bluescope Steel, Iress, Skyworth, Toyota Inds., Raksul, Sankei Real Estate

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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