Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.</strong></p><p>2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.</p><p>No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.</p><p>Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. </p>

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. 

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cawachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19359:1" rel="noopener">Cawachi (2664 JP)</a> had the 'best' trailing results announcement; however, our scoring methodology highlights the decline in earnings momentum - while the revised full-year forecasts fall short of TTM implying pre-COVID levels of profitability. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)</a> is the obvious 'worst' pick. Both, however, should be of interest to Japan value investors.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/319/original/2021-01-25_05-29-27.png?1611520184" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184319"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/320/original/2021-01-25_05-40-08.png?1611520819" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184320"></figure></section><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Drugstore Cawachi (2664 JP) had the 'best' trailing results announcement; however, our scoring methodology highlights the decline in earnings momentum - while the revised full-year forecasts fall short of TTM implying pre-COVID levels of profitability. Tokyo Steel (5423 JP) is the obvious 'worst' pick. Both, however, should be of interest to Japan value investors. Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​22 - Cawachi & Tokyo Steel

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• $ BREAKOUT •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/831/original/2021-01-11_09-50-40.png?1610326256" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181831"></figure></section><p><strong>NEW $ HIGH</strong> - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new high in Yen terms is only 3% away and, given the current sentiment, should also be reached this month. As the market factors in the possibility of a return to commodity inflation and digests another State of Emergency, the <strong>Technology Hardware</strong> Sector joins <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong> and <strong>Machinery</strong> in Overbought territory. <strong>Energy</strong> and<strong> Metals</strong> stocks have seen a significant rebound while the COVID 'losers' <strong>Restaurants</strong>, <strong>Transportation</strong>, <strong>Real Estate</strong> &amp; <strong>REITs</strong>, and <strong>Consumer Service</strong>s Sectors search for new relative lows.   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/832/original/2021-01-11_10-55-08.png?1610330120" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181832"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/833/original/2021-01-11_10-55-34.png?1610330145" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181833"></figure></section><p><strong>MARKET PER 33X</strong> -The market rally has pushed the forward earnings multiple back up to 33 times discounting one or more years of recovery.  </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/875/original/2021-01-11_14-38-44.png?1610343543" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181875"></figure></section><p><strong>SECTOR OP TRENDS</strong> - The only Sectors with rising operating income over the last three months are<strong> Energy</strong>, <strong> Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>, <strong>Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong>,  <strong>Utilities</strong> and <strong>Other Consumer Products</strong>. The largest declines are in<strong> Consumer Services</strong>,<strong> Transport</strong>, <strong>Restaurants</strong>, <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <strong>Telecommunications</strong>.   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/876/original/2021-01-11_14-54-40.png?1610344493" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181876"></figure></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/878/original/2021-01-11_14-58-55.png?1610344748" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181878"></figure></section><p><strong>REVISIONS ▲ RESULTS ►</strong> - Our momentum-based scoring methodology has seen a strong upturn in the Forecast/Revision Score and a more muted recovery in the trailing Results Score. The Sectors with the strongest upward momentum are <strong>Autos</strong>, <strong>Machinery</strong>,<strong> Electrical Equipment</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong> and <strong>Multi-Industry</strong>-  all but the last have outperformed over the last three months. Lagging Sectors include <strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/efjcusx11m46con/2021-01-11_15-29-27.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Media</a></strong>, <strong>Non-Bank Finance</strong>,<strong> Information Technology</strong>, <strong>Retail</strong>, <strong>Energy</strong> and <strong>Transportation</strong>. </p></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/880/original/2021-01-11_15-14-41.png?1610345693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181880"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/881/original/2021-01-11_15-29-27.png?1610346581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181881"></figure></section><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Friday's best and worst large-cap pairing is cutting-tool specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19178:1" rel="noopener">OSG (6136 JP)</a> and drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/937/original/2021-01-12_06-44-33.png?1610401488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181937"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/938/original/2021-01-12_06-45-03.png?1610401520" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181938"></figure></section>

• $ BREAKOUT •NEW $ HIGH - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new high in Yen terms is only 3% away and, given the current sentiment, should also be reached this month. As the market factors in the possibility of a return to commodity inflation and digests another State of Emergency, the Technology Hardware Sector joins Electrical Equipment and Machinery in Overbought territory. Energy and Metals stocks have seen a significant rebound while the COVID 'losers' Restaurants, Transportation, Real Estate &amp; REITs, and Consumer Services Sectors search for new relative lows.   MARKET PER 33X -The market rally has pushed the forward earnings multiple back up to 33 times discounting one or more years of recovery.  SECTOR OP TRENDS - The only Sectors with rising operating income over the last three months are Energy,  Internet Content &amp; Services, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco,  Utilities and Other Consumer Products. The largest declines are in Consumer Services, Transport, Restaurants, Healthcare and Telecommunications.   REVISIONS ▲ RESULTS ► - Our momentum-based scoring methodology has seen a strong upturn in the Forecast/Revision Score and a more muted recovery in the trailing Results Score. The Sectors with the strongest upward momentum are Autos, Machinery, Electrical Equipment, Metals and Multi-Industry-  all but the last have outperformed over the last three months. Lagging Sectors include Media, Non-Bank Finance, Information Technology, Retail, Energy and Transportation. • BEST &amp; WORST •Friday's best and worst large-cap pairing is cutting-tool specialist OSG (6136 JP) and drugstore Welcia (3141 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​08

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
<p>The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is call centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bell-system24-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27224:1" rel="noopener">Bell System24 (6183 JP)</a> and the very Overbought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcr-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20126:1" rel="noopener">JCR Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/985/original/2020-10-08_05-56-30.png?1602104205" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163985"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/986/original/2020-10-08_05-55-56.png?1602104228" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163986"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<strong>AEON GROUP</strong> - Wednesday was 'Aeonday' as the majority of group companies reported, and a majority are still showing trailing losses. Parent Aeon's revenues were stable but trailing operating income is still declining at a double-digit rate, something the market is content to 'look through'. At 2.33 Aeon's Relative Price Score is close to a fifteen-year high; its PBR is twice that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> whose Residual Core Return is six times Aeon's. We would trade the 'pair'.</div><div></div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/987/original/2020-10-08_06-17-52.png?1602105492" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163987"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/988/original/2020-10-08_06-22-24.png?1602105757" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163988"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/989/original/2020-10-08_06-25-33.png?1602105947" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163989"></figure><p></p>
</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>21 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 62% Positive / 10% Neutral / 28% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +1.5 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +8.2% Quarter YoY / +9.1% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.0ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>15 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 47% Positive / 6% Neutral / 47% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 0% Positive / 0% Neutral / 100% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -6.8 point</p></li>
</ul></div>


• BEST &amp; WORST •
The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is call centre Bell System24 (6183 JP) and the very Overbought JCR Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP).
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
AEON GROUP - Wednesday was 'Aeonday' as the majority of group companies reported, and a majority are still showing trailing losses. Parent Aeon's revenues were stable but trailing operating income is still declining at a double-digit rate, something the market is content to 'look through'. At 2.33 Aeon's Relative Price Score is close to a fifteen-year high; its PBR is twice that of Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) whose Residual Core Return is six times Aeon's. We would trade the 'pair'.



DAILY STATS
21 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 62% Positive / 10% Neutral / 28% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +1.5 points
Average % Change in Revenue: +8.2% Quarter YoY / +9.1% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.0ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
15 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 47% Positive / 6% Neutral / 47% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 0% Positive / 0% Neutral / 100% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.8 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​​07 Aeon Group, BS24, Welcia, JCR Pharma

<p>At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.</p>
<p>Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.</p>
<p>Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.</p>
<p>The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:</p>
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.</p>

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

Japan

WELCIA HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. is a holding company established through a merger of Welcia Kanto and Takada Pharmacy.  The Group mainly operates drug chain stores which sell medicines, health foods, cosmetics, nursery items and daily necessity goods.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/22 - Cawachi & Tokyo Steel

Drugstore Cawachi (2664 JP) had the 'best' trailing results announcement; however, our scoring methodology highlights the decline in earnings...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions 01/08

NEW $ HIGH - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/07 Aeon Group, BS24, Welcia, JCR Pharma

• BEST & WORST • The best and worst pair from sday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer Bic Camera (3048 JP) and Japan's largest...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​22 - Cawachi & Tokyo Steel

Drugstore Cawachi (2664 JP) had the 'best' trailing results announcement; however, our scoring methodology highlights the decline in earnings...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​08

NEW $ HIGH - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​​07 Aeon Group, BS24, Welcia, JCR Pharma

• BEST & WORST • The best and worst pair from sday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer Bic Camera (3048 JP) and Japan's largest...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/22 - Cawachi & Tokyo Steel

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions 01/08

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/07 Aeon Group, BS24, Welcia, JCR Pharma