A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in US history.</li><li>Sparked by the bankruptcy of FTX, Silvergate was first hit by a bank run before the subsequent panic-induced domino-closure of <strong>three highly reputable banks</strong> - Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), NY based Signature Bank and lastly, First Republic Bank.</li><li>I still vividly remember the day, Peter Thiel “commanded his cronies” to pull their money out of SVB, ASAP; the stock gapped down bigly at opening and the rest is history.</li></ul>

If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in US history.Sparked by the bankruptcy of FTX, Silvergate was first hit by a bank run before the subsequent panic-induced domino-closure of three highly reputable banks - Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), NY based Signature Bank and lastly, First Republic Bank.I still vividly remember the day, Peter Thiel “commanded his cronies” to pull their money out of SVB, ASAP; the stock gapped down bigly at opening and the rest is history.

Thanksgiving musings: What's done extremely well over the last year???

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 25/Oct, US crude inventories fell by 0.5m barrels, against expectations of a 1.5m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks also bucked forecasts of a build. </li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 78 Bcf for the week ending 25/Oct, marginally lower than analyst expectations of a 79 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell and Chevron exceeded both revenue and EPS estimates, while Exxon and BP topped EPS but missed on revenue. TotalEnergies beat revenue expectations but fell short on EPS.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 25/Oct, US crude inventories fell by 0.5m barrels, against expectations of a 1.5m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks also bucked forecasts of a build. 
US natural gas inventories rose 78 Bcf for the week ending 25/Oct, marginally lower than analyst expectations of a 79 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell and Chevron exceeded both revenue and EPS estimates, while Exxon and BP topped EPS but missed on revenue. TotalEnergies beat revenue expectations but fell short on EPS.


[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 04/Oct, US crude inventories rose by 5.8m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2m barrel build. However, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 82 Bcf for the week ending 04/Oct, higher than analyst expectations of a 73 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron and Shell experienced target price upgrades, while Schlumberger and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, BNP Paribas downgraded Exxon to Underperform from Neutral.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 04/Oct, US crude inventories rose by 5.8m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2m barrel build. However, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 82 Bcf for the week ending 04/Oct, higher than analyst expectations of a 73 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron and Shell experienced target price upgrades, while Schlumberger and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, BNP Paribas downgraded Exxon to Underperform from Neutral.


[ETP 2024/41] WTI Rises Amid Supply Disruption Fears; Nat-Gas Demand Wanes Due to Hurricane Milton

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving</li>
<li>Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving
Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement
Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)


US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.
US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.


[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

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Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

Thanksgiving musings: What's done extremely well over the last year???

If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in...

Acid Investments

[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/41] WTI Rises Amid Supply Disruption Fears; Nat-Gas Demand Wanes Due to Hurricane Milton

WTI prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand worries and larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories. US nat-gas inventories also...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

The largest US banks by assets are showing HFD that is increasingly positive for loan growth, loan loss reserves growth and large time deposits...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

WTI rose amid heightened supply concerns after Iran's missile attacks on Israel, yet long-term demand worries persist. US nat-gas reached a 16-week...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thanksgiving musings: What's done extremely well over the last year???

If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in...

Acid Investments

[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

​US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/41] WTI Rises Amid Supply Disruption Fears; Nat-Gas Demand Wanes Due to Hurricane Milton

​WTI prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand worries and larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories. US nat-gas inventories also...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

The largest US banks by assets are showing HFD that is increasingly positive for loan growth, loan loss reserves growth and large time deposits...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

WTI rose amid heightened supply concerns after Iran's missile attacks on Israel, yet long-term demand worries persist. US nat-gas reached a 16-week...

Mint Finance

US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...

WTI prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand worries and larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories. US nat-gas inventories also...