Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The amount of deposits in the US banking system are substantial in absolute terms and compared with recent periods and older periods</li>
<li>Of the USD17.4tr in deposits in the US banking system, 86% is liquid, available to access</li>
<li>Alongside concerns about the S&amp;P 500 Index or the broad US stock market, we believe it is worthwhile to keep in mind the amount of depositor liquidity</li>
</ul>


The amount of deposits in the US banking system are substantial in absolute terms and compared with recent periods and older periods
Of the USD17.4tr in deposits in the US banking system, 86% is liquid, available to access
Alongside concerns about the S&amp;P 500 Index or the broad US stock market, we believe it is worthwhile to keep in mind the amount of depositor liquidity


US Stock Market - US Banks Have Total Deposits of USD17.4tr, Which Was USD3-4tr ~30 Yrs Ago

<ul>
<li>There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength</li>
<li>CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital</li>
<li>Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating</li>
</ul>


There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength
CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital
Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating


US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

<ul>
<li>Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns</li>
<li>The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign</li>
<li>Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns
The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign
Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters


US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

<ul>
<li>The comment by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpmorgan-chase-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:277:1" rel="noopener">JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM US)</a> about its two bad loans suggesting there will be more, something like 'cockroaches' coming out from nowhere. </li>
<li>The weekly data from H8 filings at the Fed have been showing lower LLR for many weeks, suggesting a better credit environment not worsening - whatever the animal.</li>
<li>The reality is that most banks that have announced in the US are showing lower credit costs, lower NPLs or benign growth in bad loans. </li>
</ul>


The comment by JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM US) about its two bad loans suggesting there will be more, something like 'cockroaches' coming out from nowhere. 
The weekly data from H8 filings at the Fed have been showing lower LLR for many weeks, suggesting a better credit environment not worsening - whatever the animal.
The reality is that most banks that have announced in the US are showing lower credit costs, lower NPLs or benign growth in bad loans. 


US Banks - Cockroaches? Weekly LLR Only 0.32% YoY. Comment Appears to Be In Contrast to Data

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wells-fargo-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:232:1" rel="noopener">Wells Fargo &amp; Co (WFC US)</a> reported strong loan growth and much lower credit costs 3Q25</li>
<li>The credit costs from WFC are stepped down, and fully reflected of weekly B/S from Fed data</li>
<li>C&amp;I loans are up a lot, indicative of economic strength, NPL ratio for all loans, are falling more</li>
</ul>



Wells Fargo &amp; Co (WFC US) reported strong loan growth and much lower credit costs 3Q25
The credit costs from WFC are stepped down, and fully reflected of weekly B/S from Fed data
C&amp;I loans are up a lot, indicative of economic strength, NPL ratio for all loans, are falling more


Wells Fargo - Strong Loan Growth and Credit Metrics, in Line with Weekly B/S Data from Fed

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

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Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

US Stock Market - US Banks Have Total Deposits of USD17.4tr, Which Was USD3-4tr ~30 Yrs Ago

USD18.4 trillion in bank deposits at US banks as at 5 November week. At start of this century, that was USD3.5 trillion. There is a lot of...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

High frequency data from Fed on commercial paper and balance sheets is positive. Loans are accelerating to 5% YoY and CP is at 19% YoY, with LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

Fed quarterly data on NCO and delinquencies, does not suggest any systemic malaise in credit markets. Will be interesting to see how data changes...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Cockroaches? Weekly LLR Only 0.32% YoY. Comment Appears to Be In Contrast to Data

Comment from JPM seems to be in contrast to US bank data, where there are no major or systemic signs of credit deterioration, rather it is the...

Daniel Tabbush

Wells Fargo - Strong Loan Growth and Credit Metrics, in Line with Weekly B/S Data from Fed

Strong data out from Wells Fargo for 3Q25 is very much in keeping with the weekly balance sheet data from Fed during the quarter, and as we are...

Daniel Tabbush

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