Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. </li>
<li>Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.</li>
<li>Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April</li>
</ul>


In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. 
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April


US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.
The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.
Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.


[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

<ul>
<li>The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit </li>
<li>This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders </li>
<li>The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health</li>
</ul>


The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit 
This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders 
The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health


US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

<ul>
<li>A commercial &amp; industrial (C&amp;I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed</li>
<li>Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&amp;I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ. </li>
<li>The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ. </li>
</ul>


A commercial &amp; industrial (C&amp;I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed
Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&amp;I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ. 
The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ. 


US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.


[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

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Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

There is granular data from Fed showing that loans to nonbank FI's will include CLOs and private credit. This means that C&I lending is stronger...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

Off balance sheet data for US banks shows C&I loan commitments down a lot in 4Q24, the most recent comparable period was in early FY20. This can be...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

There is granular data from Fed showing that loans to nonbank FI's will include CLOs and private credit. This means that C&I lending is stronger...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

Off balance sheet data for US banks shows C&I loan commitments down a lot in 4Q24, the most recent comparable period was in early FY20. This can be...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

​US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...

Mint Finance

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...