Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue and margin: Q2 revenue rose 28% to C$267m, and EBITDA rose 23% to C$170m; both mines now sit on eight-year reserve mine plans filed in June.</li>
<li>
 Operational inflection: Kiena production up 28% year-on-year; full-year production and cost guidance reaffirmed, with output and free cash flow weighted to H2.</li>
<li>
 At C$36, WDO trades on 11.0x FY26e earnings and 5.3x EV/EBITDA, against C$391m cash, no debt and C$871m FY26e EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


Revenue and margin: Q2 revenue rose 28% to C$267m, and EBITDA rose 23% to C$170m; both mines now sit on eight-year reserve mine plans filed in June.

 Operational inflection: Kiena production up 28% year-on-year; full-year production and cost guidance reaffirmed, with output and free cash flow weighted to H2.

 At C$36, WDO trades on 11.0x FY26e earnings and 5.3x EV/EBITDA, against C$391m cash, no debt and C$871m FY26e EBITDA.


Wesdome (WDO CN): Full Year Guidance Reaffirmed, Eight-Year Mine Plans Filed

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Mine supply is stuck near 3,600 tonnes a year. Central bank buying doubled after the Russia-Ukraine war, from 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes, squeezing everyone else.</li>
<li>
Debasement, not real rates, drives gold now. Yields that signal fiscal stress pull money in, not out. August proved it: rates stayed high, gold rallied anyway. Intervention does the same.</li>
<li>
Three small- to mid-cap stocks we like to play the gold theme are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesdome-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:53204:1" rel="noopener">Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Mine supply is stuck near 3,600 tonnes a year. Central bank buying doubled after the Russia-Ukraine war, from 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes, squeezing everyone else.

Debasement, not real rates, drives gold now. Yields that signal fiscal stress pull money in, not out. August proved it: rates stayed high, gold rallied anyway. Intervention does the same.

Three small- to mid-cap stocks we like to play the gold theme are OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) / Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN)



$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

<ul>
<li>At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> have impressive capital return programs.</li>
</ul>


At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.
We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. 
We like OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, Newmont (NEM AU) and Barrick Mining (B US) have impressive capital return programs.


Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

<ul>
<li>
 High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.</li>
<li>
 Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.</li>
<li>
Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash</li>
</ul>



 High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.

 Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.

Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash


Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Canada

Wesdome Gold Mines is a Canadian gold producer engaged in mining, exploration, processing, and reclamation activities. The company operates two high-grade underground gold mines: the Eagle River Mine in Northern Ontario and the Kiena Mine in Val-d'Or, Québec. Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

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Wesdome Gold Mines (0VOA LN)

Wesdome (WDO CN): Full Year Guidance Reaffirmed, Eight-Year Mine Plans Filed

Record cash margins, an eight year reserve life at both mines, guidance intact and a debt free balance sheet, still on 5.3x FY26e EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja

$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

We highlight three undervalued small- to mid-cap gold miners. Oceanagold (OGP PM), Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome (WDO CN) are strong value...

Sameer Taneja

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Low-cost 2.0 Moz/yr gold producer with US$1.9 bn net cash and 30% ROCE, self-funding a grade-led US and Chile pipeline at 5.1x FY26E EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja

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Wesdome (WDO CN): Full Year Guidance Reaffirmed, Eight-Year Mine Plans Filed

Record cash margins, an eight year reserve life at both mines, guidance intact and a debt free balance sheet, still on 5.3x FY26e EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja

$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

We highlight three undervalued small- to mid-cap gold miners. Oceanagold (OGP PM), Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome (WDO CN) are strong value...

Sameer Taneja

GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Gold miners trade at 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA at $4,500/oz; YTD laggard Barrick is the cheapest on EV/EBITDA, and Oceanagold Gold offers a 12%...

Sameer Taneja

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Low-cost 2.0 Moz/yr gold producer with US$1.9 bn net cash and 30% ROCE, self-funding a grade-led US and Chile pipeline at 5.1x FY26E EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja