'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/679/original/2020-05-01_05-31-11.png?1588278692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130679"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>COMFORT BLANKET</strong> - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  </p><p><strong>COUNTERMEASURES</strong> - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-</p><ul>
<li>The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.</li>
<li>Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.</li>
</ul><hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/680/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2039%2027.jpeg?1588280828" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130680"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/681/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2027%2003.jpeg?1588280873" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130681"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/683/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2040%2007.jpeg?1588281553" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130683"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/682/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2031%2028.jpeg?1588280903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130682"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • ourworldindata.org</div><p><strong>MAYDAY</strong> - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/684/original/2020-05-01_06-41-23.png?1588282906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130684"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>30TH APRIL -</strong> In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> being the most prominent in the former camp.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCOMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as Nidec (6594 JP), the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  COUNTERMEASURES - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-
The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.
Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.
Source • ourworldindata.orgMAYDAY - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.Source • Japan Analytics30TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) being the most prominent in the former camp.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and the growing enthusiasm to use dining and leisure options at station-based malls across the country.</p><p>Tourism boosted outlet malls once again and helped Narita Airport’s SC to widen its lead as the biggest mall by far, but it was the big station-based SCs that performed the best on average.</p><p>Despite this relative buoyancy, the number of new malls in 2018 collapsed to the lowest level in 20 years and 2019 was also a poor year. Shortages of labour and materials in the pre-Olympic infrastructure boom haven’t helped but nor has greater competition and falling interest in all but the best retailers’ new stores.</p><p>The following is an in-depth review of shopping centre development and performance in 2018-19 including a ranking of the top 50 shopping centres by sales.</p>

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and the growing enthusiasm to use dining and leisure options at station-based malls across the country.Tourism boosted outlet malls once again and helped Narita Airport’s SC to widen its lead as the biggest mall by far, but it was the big station-based SCs that performed the best on average.Despite this relative buoyancy, the number of new malls in 2018 collapsed to the lowest level in 20 years and 2019 was also a poor year. Shortages of labour and materials in the pre-Olympic infrastructure boom haven’t helped but nor has greater competition and falling interest in all but the best retailers’ new stores.The following is an in-depth review of shopping centre development and performance in 2018-19 including a ranking of the top 50 shopping centres by sales.

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s <em>Int’l Compass</em>. These breakouts and other technical developments highlighted below argue that this is the beginning of a new leg higher. Now is the time to be playing offense. In today’s report we highlight our favorite setups within Industrials, spanning the Vermilion international Manufacturing, Services, and Transportation Sectors.</p>

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s Int’l Compass. These breakouts and other technical developments highlighted below argue that this is the beginning of a new leg higher. Now is the time to be playing offense. In today’s report we highlight our favorite setups within Industrials, spanning the Vermilion international Manufacturing, Services, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

<p>Shopping centre performance varies hugely between regions and locations, but for the past few years, the common denominator for SCs with consistent positive growth has been either that they are located in transport hubs or are outlet malls.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> Leading developers include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP).</a></span></p>

Shopping centre performance varies hugely between regions and locations, but for the past few years, the common denominator for SCs with consistent positive growth has been either that they are located in transport hubs or are outlet malls. Leading developers include Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP).

Japan Shopping Centres: Station and Outlet Mall Sales up Again

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Orix, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Orix, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Rakuten.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (May): Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Japan

West Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services including the shinkansen network (bullet train) in North Kyushu, Kinki, Chugoku, and Hokuriku including Kyoto and Osaka.  The Company also operates ferries in Miyajima, manages real estate, shopping centers, and hotels, and offers leisure-related services such as travel packaging products.

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West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

COMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and...

Michael Causton

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s...

Vermilion Research

Japan Shopping Centres: Station and Outlet Mall Sales up Again

Shopping centre performance varies hugely between regions and locations, but for the past few years, the common denominator for SCs with consistent...

Michael Causton

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (May): Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for May 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Orix,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)