AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TurboQuant triggered the sell-off, but the market appears to have priced a uniform demand shock across memory, despite the impact being limited to inference efficiency.</li>
<li>Supply remains tight; HBM capacity largely locked into 2026; TrendForce revised DRAM and NAND pricing sharply higher after the TurboQuant announcement. </li>
<li>Relevant risks sit elsewhere: early signs of pricing resistance in commodity memory, emerging share gains from Chinese suppliers, and a shift toward more staggered hyperscaler spending</li>
</ul>


TurboQuant triggered the sell-off, but the market appears to have priced a uniform demand shock across memory, despite the impact being limited to inference efficiency.
Supply remains tight; HBM capacity largely locked into 2026; TrendForce revised DRAM and NAND pricing sharply higher after the TurboQuant announcement. 
Relevant risks sit elsewhere: early signs of pricing resistance in commodity memory, emerging share gains from Chinese suppliers, and a shift toward more staggered hyperscaler spending


Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.
</li>
<li>Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.</li>
<li>
Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.</li>
</ul>


We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.

Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.

Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Asia mirrors the U.S. “boring tech” rally: storage, memory, and components once seen as cyclical are being re-rated as AI infrastructure enablers.</li>
<li>Valuation gaps present opportunities: Kioxia and SK Hynix trade at meaningful discounts vs Seagate/WDC/Micron, while Murata and TSMC command premiums; Chinese names appear expensive.</li>
<li>Key risks remain: cyclicality in DRAM/NAND, potential subsidy overbuild, and currency volatility could pressure valuations if AI demand slows.</li>
</ul>


Asia mirrors the U.S. “boring tech” rally: storage, memory, and components once seen as cyclical are being re-rated as AI infrastructure enablers.
Valuation gaps present opportunities: Kioxia and SK Hynix trade at meaningful discounts vs Seagate/WDC/Micron, while Murata and TSMC command premiums; Chinese names appear expensive.
Key risks remain: cyclicality in DRAM/NAND, potential subsidy overbuild, and currency volatility could pressure valuations if AI demand slows.


Asia’s “Boring Tech” Rerating: Memory, Components & AI Infrastructure

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks</li>
<li>The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks
The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin


High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. </li>
<li>We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. 
We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?


Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

United States

Western Digital Corporation is a global provider of solutions for the collection, storage, management, protection and use of digital content, including audio and video. The Company's products include hard drives, solid-state drives, and home entertainment and networking products.

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Western Digital (WDC US)

Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

Mint Finance

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asia’s “Boring Tech” Rerating: Memory, Components & AI Infrastructure

Asia's tech rally focuses on storage, memory, and components as AI infrastructure enablers, with valuation gaps offering opportunities but risks...

Rahul Jain

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

​TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

Mint Finance

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

​Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asia’s “Boring Tech” Rerating: Memory, Components & AI Infrastructure

​Asia's tech rally focuses on storage, memory, and components as AI infrastructure enablers, with valuation gaps offering opportunities but risks...

Rahul Jain

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Asia's tech rally focuses on storage, memory, and components as AI infrastructure enablers, with valuation gaps offering opportunities but risks...