Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li><li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li><li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li></ul>

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Western Union Company demonstrated progress in its second quarter of 2024 financial results, echoing its commitment to its Evolve 2025 strategy aimed at propelling the company towards competitive market positioning.</li><li>Led by CEO, Devin McGranahan and CFO, Matt Cagwin, the earnings presentation outlined key financial metrics and strategic initiatives that mark both strengths and areas of concern.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

The Western Union Company demonstrated progress in its second quarter of 2024 financial results, echoing its commitment to its Evolve 2025 strategy aimed at propelling the company towards competitive market positioning.Led by CEO, Devin McGranahan and CFO, Matt Cagwin, the earnings presentation outlined key financial metrics and strategic initiatives that mark both strengths and areas of concern.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

The Western Union Company: Initiation Of Coverage - A Deep Insight Into Its Core Strategy & Its Competitive Advantage! - Major Drivers

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Remitly (RELY) offers remittances services with 5m active customers, in over 170 countries, with 4 billion bank accounts, and 4,800 corridors, mostly to persons in US, Canada.  </li>
<li>Revenue growth is strong at 49% YoY in 2Q23 and averaging 43% YoY for the preceding 5 quarters, with active customers up 474,000 in 2Q23 QoQ vs 371,000 in 1Q23</li>
<li>Costs remain high, GAAP earnings are in loss, but this is due to stock-based compensation; adjusted EBITDA is now USD20.4m in 2Q23 from an adjusted EBITDA loss YoY</li>
</ul>


Remitly (RELY) offers remittances services with 5m active customers, in over 170 countries, with 4 billion bank accounts, and 4,800 corridors, mostly to persons in US, Canada.  
Revenue growth is strong at 49% YoY in 2Q23 and averaging 43% YoY for the preceding 5 quarters, with active customers up 474,000 in 2Q23 QoQ vs 371,000 in 1Q23
Costs remain high, GAAP earnings are in loss, but this is due to stock-based compensation; adjusted EBITDA is now USD20.4m in 2Q23 from an adjusted EBITDA loss YoY


Remitly - Rev +49% | ROW Rev +120% | Scaling: COGS -25% | Adj EBITDA Margin 2Q23 Is 8.7%, Highest

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P500 rebalance traded with appropriate-to-expectations volumes, but the path from announcement to actual event was somewhat surprising.</li>
<li>Historically, DELETEs underperform peers and index from announcement to event date, including an initial jump weaker. This time they saw initial strength, but fell hard on the last day.</li>
<li>"The trade" from here, statistically speaking, would be to buy the S&amp;P500 DELETEs (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leggett-platt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15843:1" rel="noopener">Leggett &amp; Platt (LEG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanesbrands-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13641:1" rel="noopener">Hanesbrands Inc (HBI US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-union-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16761:1" rel="noopener">Western Union Co (WU US)</a>) against index.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P500 rebalance traded with appropriate-to-expectations volumes, but the path from announcement to actual event was somewhat surprising.
Historically, DELETEs underperform peers and index from announcement to event date, including an initial jump weaker. This time they saw initial strength, but fell hard on the last day.
"The trade" from here, statistically speaking, would be to buy the S&amp;P500 DELETEs (Leggett &amp; Platt (LEG US), Hanesbrands Inc (HBI US), and Western Union Co (WU US)) against index.


S&P500 Rebalance Recap - Strange Path Ends As Expected.

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI Global Indices on Friday announced the changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P Midcap 400, and S&amp;P 600 to be implement at the close on 17 December. </li>
<li>There were no surprises and the whole exercise is one of rearranging the deckchairs. Stocks move up an index, or down an index, but nothing moves out of the three.</li>
<li>The proprietary S&amp;P data suggests little opportunity, but empirical data suggests otherwise, and as in most cases, the interesting trades are the smaller ones.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI Global Indices on Friday announced the changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P Midcap 400, and S&amp;P 600 to be implement at the close on 17 December. 
There were no surprises and the whole exercise is one of rearranging the deckchairs. Stocks move up an index, or down an index, but nothing moves out of the three.
The proprietary S&amp;P data suggests little opportunity, but empirical data suggests otherwise, and as in most cases, the interesting trades are the smaller ones.


S&P500 Rebalance for December 2021 - Rearranging the Deckchairs

United States

The Western Union Company offers global money transfer services. The Company offers consumer to consumer money transfer and bill paying services, and sells money orders.

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Western Union Co (WU US)

Monday Delight: 04/08/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

The Western Union Company: Initiation Of Coverage - A Deep Insight Into Its Core Strategy & Its Competitive Advantage! - Major Drivers

The Western Union Company demonstrated progress in its second quarter of 2024 financial results, echoing its commitment to its Evolve 2025...

Baptista Research

Remitly - Rev +49% | ROW Rev +120% | Scaling: COGS -25% | Adj EBITDA Margin 2Q23 Is 8.7%, Highest

49% revenue growth 2Q23, COGS/revenue in decline. Adj EBITDA is positive, rising sharply in 2Q23 from 1Q23, 4Q22. Scale, penetration, reach, new...

Daniel Tabbush

S&P500 Rebalance Recap - Strange Path Ends As Expected.

S&P500 Rebalance Recap - performance ends as expected with unexpected path to last day. Volumes largely as tracking amounts would predict. The next...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 Rebalance for December 2021 - Rearranging the Deckchairs

The S&P announced its changes to the S&P500, S&P Midcap 400, and S&P Small 600 Indices. All names moving in and out of these indices are coming...

Travis Lundy

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