Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Real interest rates moving lower together with massively increasing fiscal deficits is a plus for gold.</li>
<li>Gold miners are generally poor long-term investments, but their time is close.</li>
<li>Miners’ margins are improving as revenue increases while costs decrease.</li>
</ul>


Real interest rates moving lower together with massively increasing fiscal deficits is a plus for gold.
Gold miners are generally poor long-term investments, but their time is close.
Miners’ margins are improving as revenue increases while costs decrease.


2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> entered into a scheme at 0.7629 GMD shares per VAU share + A$0.475 cash per share.</li>
<li>Genesis has long been rumoured to be a suitor for Vault because a combination of the two would create the dominant player in Western Australia’s most valuable gold-mining regions.</li>
<li>The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process.</li>
</ul>



Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) entered into a scheme at 0.7629 GMD shares per VAU share + A$0.475 cash per share.
Genesis has long been rumoured to be a suitor for Vault because a combination of the two would create the dominant player in Western Australia’s most valuable gold-mining regions.
The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process.


Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-african-resources-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23518:1" rel="noopener">Pan African Resources (PAF LN)</a>’s offer (0.1493 PAN CDI shares per ERM share) fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>Unusually, the IE’s valuation (A$0.087 to A$0.139) is well below the undisturbed price (A$0.33), apparently due to low liquidity and to the DCF valuation not factoring in all the reserves.</li>
<li>The key condition is ERM shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk as the substantial shareholders will be supportive (irrevocables or high premium to their price paid).</li>
</ul>


The Emmerson Resources (ERM AU) IE considers Pan African Resources (PAF LN)’s offer (0.1493 PAN CDI shares per ERM share) fair and reasonable.
Unusually, the IE’s valuation (A$0.087 to A$0.139) is well below the undisturbed price (A$0.33), apparently due to low liquidity and to the DCF valuation not factoring in all the reserves.
The key condition is ERM shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk as the substantial shareholders will be supportive (irrevocables or high premium to their price paid).


Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Scheme Vote on 15 June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> entered into a merger through a scheme of arrangement. The consideration is 0.6937 RRL shares per VAU share.</li>
<li>The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, the long-rumoured suitor for Vault, is unlikely to get involved. </li>
<li>The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and benign shareholder structure.</li>
</ul>



Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) and Regis Resources (RRL AU) entered into a merger through a scheme of arrangement. The consideration is 0.6937 RRL shares per VAU share.
The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), the long-rumoured suitor for Vault, is unlikely to get involved. 
The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and benign shareholder structure.


Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Vulcan Energy Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 3 for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 16 adds/9 deletes for the ASX300 in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources</a> and Greatland Resources are potential inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March and those passive trackers will need to buy stock on the same day.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes for all indices over the last few months, though performance has been flat over the last few weeks for most indices.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 3 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/9 deletes for the ASX300 in March.

Regis Resources and Greatland Resources are potential inclusions to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March and those passive trackers will need to buy stock on the same day.
The adds have outperformed the deletes for all indices over the last few months, though performance has been flat over the last few weeks for most indices.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2026): 43 Changes Across Indices as Adds Outperform Deletes

Australia

Westgold Resources Limited provides gold mining services. The Company owns and operates gold mining projects. Westgold Resources conducts its business in Australia.

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Westgold Resources (WGX AU)

2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners

The time is now right for gold miners as the gold price is set to move to new all time highs and margins expand creating a perfect storm for...

Rikki Malik

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Scheme Vote on 15 June

This is a done deal as the scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for a 1 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.0%/6.6%.

Arun George

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2026): 43 Changes Across Indices as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 43 changes across the ASX changes in March. Couple of the adds could also be added to the GDX in March. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners

The time is now right for gold miners as the gold price is set to move to new all time highs and margins expand creating a perfect storm for...

Rikki Malik

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Scheme Vote on 15 June

This is a done deal as the scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for a 1 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.0%/6.6%.

Arun George

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio...

Arun George

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2026): 43 Changes Across Indices as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 43 changes across the ASX changes in March. Couple of the adds could also be added to the GDX in March. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2026): 43 Changes Across Indices as Adds Outperform Deletes