Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

It's official: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-we-company-wework" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28061:1" rel="noopener">The We Company (WeWork) (WE US)</a> has decided to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/wework-is-said-to-likely-delay-ipo-after-valuation-plummets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pull its IPO for now, but still expects to complete it by yearend.</a>Don't hold your breath.This comes just days after WeWork <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-we-company-ipo-wework-confirms-nasdaq-listing-governance-changes-2019-9?utm_source=notification&amp;utm_medium=referral" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filed an amended S-1</a> announcing plans to list its new shares on the Nasdaq index even as its IPO valuation continues to dissolve. Reuters had reported on Friday that deal insiders were considering an implied equity valuation of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive-idUSKCN1VY1PB" target="_blank" rel="noopener">just $10-12 billion,</a> a stunning 78% drop versus the extravagant $47 billion floated since January. My analysis shows even $10 billion is too high.So it's not surprising that long-term backer and top investor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>, arguably the most responsible for WeWork's incredible equity valuations, had <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/111f8e00-d346-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77" target="_blank" rel="noopener">urged the company to scuttle the IPO</a> given the "cool reception" it's been getting.Yet WeWork is compelled to push on regardless, seemingly <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f28474a2-d57e-11e9-a0bd-ab8ec6435630" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ready to concede to any terms</a>to get a deal done, because its financial condition is much more fragile than it has been trying to project. It has little time to waste and few alternatives.That means Plan B must already be in the works.Either way, risk has intensified for WeWork's overpriced bonds.Read on for Bond Angle analysis: How did WeWork get so expensive and What's next? Plus a new WeWork model, equity valuation and forecast, and more.

It's official: The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) has decided to pull its IPO for now, but still expects to complete it by yearend.Don't hold your breath.This comes just days after WeWork filed an amended S-1 announcing plans to list its new shares on the Nasdaq index even as its IPO valuation continues to dissolve. Reuters had reported on Friday that deal insiders were considering an implied equity valuation of just $10-12 billion, a stunning 78% drop versus the extravagant $47 billion floated since January. My analysis shows even $10 billion is too high.So it's not surprising that long-term backer and top investor Softbank Corp (9434 JP), arguably the most responsible for WeWork's incredible equity valuations, had urged the company to scuttle the IPO given the "cool reception" it's been getting.Yet WeWork is compelled to push on regardless, seemingly ready to concede to any termsto get a deal done, because its financial condition is much more fragile than it has been trying to project. It has little time to waste and few alternatives.That means Plan B must already be in the works.Either way, risk has intensified for WeWork's overpriced bonds.Read on for Bond Angle analysis: How did WeWork get so expensive and What's next? Plus a new WeWork model, equity valuation and forecast, and more.

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Softbank and the Vision Fund’s exposure to WeWork – estimated at USD1.8bn – look increasingly to be at risk of being written off</li>
<li>Masa’s debts to SoftBank stand at USD5.1bn at 1QFY23 end and we believe that private company valuations are vulnerable, especially in the light of the recent Union Square Ventures write-downs</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 36% discount to the stated NAV; with Alibaba gone, the potential Arm IPO valuation is critical but SVF1 and 2 private company valuations remain questionable</li>
</ul>


Softbank and the Vision Fund’s exposure to WeWork – estimated at USD1.8bn – look increasingly to be at risk of being written off
Masa’s debts to SoftBank stand at USD5.1bn at 1QFY23 end and we believe that private company valuations are vulnerable, especially in the light of the recent Union Square Ventures write-downs
Softbank shares trade at a 36% discount to the stated NAV; with Alibaba gone, the potential Arm IPO valuation is critical but SVF1 and 2 private company valuations remain questionable


Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork on the Brink and Other Factors

<ul>
<li>4QFY22 saw the best result for the Vision Funds since 3QFY21; SVF private companies saw minimal valuation write-downs last quarter, and we suspect valuations may still be too optimistically marked</li>
<li>Masa’s debts to SoftBank stand at USD5.2bn in 4QFY22; in addition, the group’s credit risk exposure to troubled company WeWork was over USD1.1bn at fiscal year end and going higher</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 46% discount to the stated NAV; with the Alibaba valuation “cushion” largely consumed, the potential Arm IPO is critical but private company valuations remain questionable</li>
</ul>


4QFY22 saw the best result for the Vision Funds since 3QFY21; SVF private companies saw minimal valuation write-downs last quarter, and we suspect valuations may still be too optimistically marked
Masa’s debts to SoftBank stand at USD5.2bn in 4QFY22; in addition, the group’s credit risk exposure to troubled company WeWork was over USD1.1bn at fiscal year end and going higher
Softbank shares trade at a 46% discount to the stated NAV; with the Alibaba valuation “cushion” largely consumed, the potential Arm IPO is critical but private company valuations remain questionable


Softbank (9984 JP): Private Company Valuations Still in Question

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value</li>
<li>To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost</li>
<li>We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations</li>
</ul>


Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value
To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost
We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations


Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>The market cap of Vision Fund portfolio company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-we-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28061:1" rel="noopener">The We Company (WeWork) (WE US)</a> has fallen decisively below that of rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iwg-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28219:1" rel="noopener">IWG PLC (IWG LN)</a> for the first time</li>
<li>Still despite WeWork's constant drag on portfolio returns including c. $500mn this quarter, Vision Fund remains on track to end the quarter in the black (+$2bn QTD)</li>
<li>The holding company discount appears to have stabilized at 35% but this seems a bit steep with markets volatile again and a move to 40% would not surprise</li>
</ul>


The market cap of Vision Fund portfolio company The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) has fallen decisively below that of rival IWG PLC (IWG LN) for the first time
Still despite WeWork's constant drag on portfolio returns including c. $500mn this quarter, Vision Fund remains on track to end the quarter in the black (+$2bn QTD)
The holding company discount appears to have stabilized at 35% but this seems a bit steep with markets volatile again and a move to 40% would not surprise


Softbank Group - Requiem for WeWork’s Premium Valuation

United States

WeWork Inc. provides co-working spaces for individuals and entrepreneurs. The Company offers private offices, office suites, headquarters, and custom build out options to fit a variety of office needs, as well as desk spaces and conference rooms. WeWork serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

WeWork (WEWKQ US)

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

WSJ reports that WeWork will file bankruptcy next week, pending ongoing discussions with its beleaguered creditors. Surprised? You shouldn't be....

Vicki Bryan

Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork on the Brink and Other Factors

Despite the Arm IPO potential, we continue to be cautious on Softbank due to its WeWork exposure, the risk of over-valuation of private companies...

Victor Galliano

Softbank (9984 JP): Private Company Valuations Still in Question

The key challenges for SoftBank; the Alibaba valuation “cushion” has been largely consumed, the group has big exposure to WeWork and the spectre of...

Victor Galliano

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

The NAV could be 10%-15% lower than stated now at the mid-May results release, due to a further squeeze in private company valuations; this would...

Victor Galliano

Softbank Group - Requiem for WeWork’s Premium Valuation

WeWork’s market cap has fallen decisively below that of rival IWG for the first time as concerns on operating losses and free cash flow rise. It’s...

Kirk Boodry

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)