Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/7d5a19cc-4fa7-7ce9-a947-44dcefea9f27?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vale</a>, <a href="https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2024/240717_bhpoperationalreviewfortheyearended30june2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP</a>, <a href="https://www.angloamericankumba.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group-v5/Kumba/press-releases/2024/q2-2024-production-and-sales-report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kumba</a>, and <a href="https://www.mtgibsoniron.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/MGX-June-Quarter-2024-Activities-Report-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mount Gibson.</a> Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.</li>
<li>Read our recent production preview <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fortescue-metals-group-fmg-au-high-dividend-yield-of-9-what-to-expect-from-q4-fy24" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:151567" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24,</a> to be declared on the 25th of July. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.
Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for Vale, BHP, Kumba, and Mount Gibson. Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.
Read our recent production preview Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24, to be declared on the 25th of July. 


Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.6% and a one-way trade of A$83m.</li>
<li>There are 6 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the June rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.6% and a one-way trade of A$83m.
There are 6 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Close Deletions in June

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 5th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisu, Whitehaven Coal.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 5th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisu, Whitehaven Coal.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Aristocrat Leisu, Whitehaven Coal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.</li>
<li>Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.</li>
</ul>



A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.
Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.
There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a> could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.</li>
<li>There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.</li>
</ul>



AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU) could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.
There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.
With the exception of A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

Australia

Whitehaven Coal Limited mines and sells metallurgical and thermal coals to the global steel, power generation, and metallurgical industries.

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Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)

Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

With iron ore continuing to remain rangebound between 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3 years (with minor overshoots), we summarize actionable ideas in...

Sameer Taneja

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Close Deletions in June

There are 3 close deletes for the index in June. Even if there are no changes, 1-way turnover is 3.6% and 1-way trade is A$83m. Shorts have started...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Aristocrat Leisu, Whitehaven Coal

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisu, Whitehaven Coal.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

There are 3 deletions for the index in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 5% resulting in a one-way trade of A$99m. Shorts will look to cover...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

There are 2 potential deletes and another 3 stocks that are close deletes for the MVIS AU Equal Weight Index. Just the capping changes back to...

Brian Freitas

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