Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Willsemi released FY24 prelim results. Rev. is expected to grow by 20.9% to 22.8% YoY to the range of RMB25.4bn to RMB25.8bn, driven by a higher penetration rate of CIS products in high-end smartphone market (smartphone CIS: 52% of CIS revenue in 1H24) and autonomous driving (AD) tech (auto CIS: 31%).</li><li>Mid-point rev. was slightly below BBG consensus/our estimate by 3.2%/2.6%.</li><li>Net profit is expected to be between RMB3.2bn and RMB3.4bn, up 468% to 504% YoY, which mgmt.attributed to market share expansion (11% of global CIS market in 2023 per Yole) and improved GPM (9M24/FY23: 29.6%/21.8%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Willsemi released FY24 prelim results. Rev. is expected to grow by 20.9% to 22.8% YoY to the range of RMB25.4bn to RMB25.8bn, driven by a higher penetration rate of CIS products in high-end smartphone market (smartphone CIS: 52% of CIS revenue in 1H24) and autonomous driving (AD) tech (auto CIS: 31%).Mid-point rev. was slightly below BBG consensus/our estimate by 3.2%/2.6%.Net profit is expected to be between RMB3.2bn and RMB3.4bn, up 468% to 504% YoY, which mgmt.attributed to market share expansion (11% of global CIS market in 2023 per Yole) and improved GPM (9M24/FY23: 29.6%/21.8%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Willsemi (603501 CH) - Expect Sequential Improvement Ahead

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Apple Increasing Chip Orders with TSMC -- Expecting iPhone 16 Sales to be Much Stronger Than iPhone 15 Thanks to AI</li>
<li>Google Said to be Shifting to TSMC from Samsung for Next Generation AI Mobile Phone Chips</li>
<li>This June 28th piece appears to be timely -- Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive</li>
</ul>


Apple Increasing Chip Orders with TSMC -- Expecting iPhone 16 Sales to be Much Stronger Than iPhone 15 Thanks to AI
Google Said to be Shifting to TSMC from Samsung for Next Generation AI Mobile Phone Chips
This June 28th piece appears to be timely -- Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Hikes TSMC Orders on Strong IPhone 16 Hopes; Google Shifts AI Chip to TSMC

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a> outlook for 3Q24 could see a 5-10% quarter-on-quarter growth at present.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>  is currently the second-largest client of KYEC, and its business is rapidly expanding.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stmicroelectronics-nv-b981e30b-2a53-4f3d-b1cb-adaac140121c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33346:1" rel="noopener">STMicroelectronics NV (STM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/will-semiconductor-co-ltd-shan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28274:1" rel="noopener">Will Semiconductor Shan (603501 CH)</a> are currently the third and fourth largest clients, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) outlook for 3Q24 could see a 5-10% quarter-on-quarter growth at present.  

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  is currently the second-largest client of KYEC, and its business is rapidly expanding.

STMicroelectronics NV (STM US) and Will Semiconductor Shan (603501 CH) are currently the third and fourth largest clients, respectively.


KYEC (2449.TT): AI Highly Growth Potential may exceed Expectation.

<ul>
<li>Apple is widely expected to launch its long-awaited MR headset in WWDC 2023 this week.</li>
<li>We believe 2023 is set to be one of the best years in VR/AR ecosystem development as Apple’s first MR headset will set new standard for innovation.</li>
<li>We expect technology upgrade to accelerate in displays, optics/sensors and tracking/interaction for enhancing user experience. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Apple is widely expected to launch its long-awaited MR headset in WWDC 2023 this week.
We believe 2023 is set to be one of the best years in VR/AR ecosystem development as Apple’s first MR headset will set new standard for innovation.
We expect technology upgrade to accelerate in displays, optics/sensors and tracking/interaction for enhancing user experience. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Apple MR: Long-awaited next “iPhone moment”

China

Will Semiconductor Co.,Ltd. Shanghai manufactures image sensor products and semiconductor products. The Company produces and sells complementary metal oxide semiconductors, protecting devices, power devices, power management integrated circuits, radio frequency devices, microphone sensors, and more. Will Semiconductor Shanghai markets its products worldwide.

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Will Semiconductor (603501 CH)

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Willsemi (603501 CH) - Expect Sequential Improvement Ahead

Willsemi released FY24 prelim results. Rev. is expected to grow by 20.9% to 22.8% YoY to the range of RMB25.4bn to RMB25.8bn, driven by a higher...

CMB International

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Hikes TSMC Orders on Strong IPhone 16 Hopes; Google Shifts AI Chip to TSMC

Apple and Google are increasing chip orders with TSMC for AI capabilities. Micron's shares inititially fell after reporting results previously,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

KYEC (2449.TT): AI Highly Growth Potential may exceed Expectation.

KYEC outlook for 3Q24 shows potential 5-10% growth, with NVDA Corp as second-largest client and expanding business. STMicroelectronics and Will...

Patrick Liao

China Technology – Apple MR: Long-awaited next “iPhone moment”

We believe 2023 is set to be one of the best years in VR/AR ecosystem development as Apple’s first MR headset will set new standard for innovation.

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Willsemi (603501 CH) - Expect Sequential Improvement Ahead

Willsemi released FY24 prelim results. Rev. is expected to grow by 20.9% to 22.8% YoY to the range of RMB25.4bn to RMB25.8bn, driven by a higher...

CMB International

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Hikes TSMC Orders on Strong IPhone 16 Hopes; Google Shifts AI Chip to TSMC

​Apple and Google are increasing chip orders with TSMC for AI capabilities. Micron's shares inititially fell after reporting results previously,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

KYEC (2449.TT): AI Highly Growth Potential may exceed Expectation.

KYEC outlook for 3Q24 shows potential 5-10% growth, with NVDA Corp as second-largest client and expanding business. STMicroelectronics and Will...

Patrick Liao

China Technology – Apple MR: Long-awaited next “iPhone moment”

We believe 2023 is set to be one of the best years in VR/AR ecosystem development as Apple’s first MR headset will set new standard for innovation.

CMB International

Apple and Google are increasing chip orders with TSMC for AI capabilities. Micron's shares inititially fell after reporting results previously,...