Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The parent company of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> has announced a plan to increase its holding. This is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> is inexpensive, even for a cross-border, possibly-difficult-to-short subsidiary, Holdco situation. </li>
<li>The BHP LN vs BHP AU unification should cause US$40bn of rebalance trading across the major indices. Other indices will simply roll their exposure from PLC to Limited without trading. </li>
</ul>


The parent company of China Mobile (941 HK) has announced a plan to increase its holding. This is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. 

Wilmar International (WIL SP) is inexpensive, even for a cross-border, possibly-difficult-to-short subsidiary, Holdco situation. 
The BHP LN vs BHP AU unification should cause US$40bn of rebalance trading across the major indices. Other indices will simply roll their exposure from PLC to Limited without trading. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Wilmar, BHP, Link Net, Hollysys, GJ Steel, Guodian Tech, ASX

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> is coming up "expensive" on my stub monitor, yet still trades at a material 65% discount to NAV. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold of at least 20%.</li>
</ul>



Wilmar International (WIL SP) is coming up "expensive" on my stub monitor, yet still trades at a material 65% discount to NAV. 
Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Wilmar Gains Ahead Of Adani Wilmar IPO

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

AWL Agri Business / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$482m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>In our view, we doubt that the firm would be able to trade close to its blue chip FMCG peers, given its small FMCG component combined with overall weaker margins.</li>
<li>In this note, we will look at updates since our last note, undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$482m in its upcoming India IPO.
In our view, we doubt that the firm would be able to trade close to its blue chip FMCG peers, given its small FMCG component combined with overall weaker margins.
In this note, we will look at updates since our last note, undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.


Adani Wilmar IPO - Has the Capabilities to Thrive but Needs to Prove Itself to Trade Higher

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN)</a> is a leading FMCG food company in India. It is set to launch an IPO to raise Rs36,000 million ($483 million) at a price of Rs218-230.</li>
<li>The business is navigating the high commodity prices by delivering high growth (price increases) and creditable margin performance in face of higher raw material costs. </li>
<li>Overall, this IPO is worth a closer look. The offer period is from 27 to 31 January. The shares will be listed on 8 February.   </li>
</ul>



Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN) is a leading FMCG food company in India. It is set to launch an IPO to raise Rs36,000 million ($483 million) at a price of Rs218-230.
The business is navigating the high commodity prices by delivering high growth (price increases) and creditable margin performance in face of higher raw material costs. 
Overall, this IPO is worth a closer look. The offer period is from 27 to 31 January. The shares will be listed on 8 February.   


Adani Wilmar IPO Initiation: Cooking up a Business

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP)</a> has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Olam was essentially rescued by Temasek while peer Noble went bust. The 10-year stock chart says it all. Olam recently closed at 1.76 SGD, far below its peak of 2.64 SGD last reached in February 2012!<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/967/original/image_58873528221633585900666.png?1633585903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233967"></figure>Fast forward almost ten years and Olam is set to go into a period of heightened corporate activity to get Temasek (53% shareholder) its required exit. As well-telegraphed OFI (Olam Food Ingredients) will list on the LSE in 1H22. The OGA (Olam Global Agri) business could get a listing in the US by late 2022 or early 2023.Both listings could unlock significant value for Temasek and Olam minorities. We expect full-on press coverage, analyst, and corporate banking awareness of the OFI deal come 1H22. Olam is a small company in a global context but at 6.7 billion SGD (18 billion SGD Enterprise Value) it is a big deal for the SGX.Back-of-the-envelope calculations and comments to Reuters and The Times make us conclude that Olam could be worth well over 3 SGD/share depending on the eventual OFI valuation and debt assigned to the unit. In a blue-sky scenario, we even get a valuation as high as 4 SGD. That is 70% to 124% upside from Olam's last traded price on SGX. In this scenario, we assign 0 value to OGA which is unrealistic. Major wild card: what % of Olam's 15 billion SGD debt gets assigned to OFI.Given Temasek's ($400 billion AUM and Singapore's key SWF) importance to global investment banks, we are betting that the players involved will pull out all stops to make OFI's listing a success. Minority investors looking to ride the coattails of "the great Temasek unlock" would be wise to position themselves in Olam stock during 4Q21. The downside is protected by a 4% dividend yield which should be safe in case capital markets make an IPO impossible in 1H22.

Olam International (OLAM SP) has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Olam was essentially rescued by Temasek while peer Noble went bust. The 10-year stock chart says it all. Olam recently closed at 1.76 SGD, far below its peak of 2.64 SGD last reached in February 2012!Fast forward almost ten years and Olam is set to go into a period of heightened corporate activity to get Temasek (53% shareholder) its required exit. As well-telegraphed OFI (Olam Food Ingredients) will list on the LSE in 1H22. The OGA (Olam Global Agri) business could get a listing in the US by late 2022 or early 2023.Both listings could unlock significant value for Temasek and Olam minorities. We expect full-on press coverage, analyst, and corporate banking awareness of the OFI deal come 1H22. Olam is a small company in a global context but at 6.7 billion SGD (18 billion SGD Enterprise Value) it is a big deal for the SGX.Back-of-the-envelope calculations and comments to Reuters and The Times make us conclude that Olam could be worth well over 3 SGD/share depending on the eventual OFI valuation and debt assigned to the unit. In a blue-sky scenario, we even get a valuation as high as 4 SGD. That is 70% to 124% upside from Olam's last traded price on SGX. In this scenario, we assign 0 value to OGA which is unrealistic. Major wild card: what % of Olam's 15 billion SGD debt gets assigned to OFI.Given Temasek's ($400 billion AUM and Singapore's key SWF) importance to global investment banks, we are betting that the players involved will pull out all stops to make OFI's listing a success. Minority investors looking to ride the coattails of "the great Temasek unlock" would be wise to position themselves in Olam stock during 4Q21. The downside is protected by a 4% dividend yield which should be safe in case capital markets make an IPO impossible in 1H22.

Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in '22/'23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities

Singapore

Wilmar International is Asia's leading agribusiness group, operating an integrated model across the agricultural commodity business. Its activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseed crushing, edible oils refining, flour and rice milling, sugar milling and refining, and manufacturing of consumer products, specialty fats, oleochemicals, biodiesel, and fertilizers. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Wilmar International (WIL SP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Wilmar, BHP, Link Net, Hollysys, GJ Steel, Guodian Tech, ASX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Wilmar Gains Ahead Of Adani Wilmar IPO

I'd buy Wilmar here. Management's average buyback price since April is $4.44/share. I see a more realistic discount of ~50% - where it traded on...

David Blennerhassett

Adani Wilmar IPO - Has the Capabilities to Thrive but Needs to Prove Itself to Trade Higher

Adani Wilmar is looking to raise up to US$482m in its India IPO. In this note, we will look at updates since our last note, undertake a peer...

Clarence Chu

Adani Wilmar IPO Initiation: Cooking up a Business

Adani Wilmar is set to launch an IPO to raise $483m. The business has broadly attractive fundamentals and is worth a closer look.

Arun George

Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in '22/'23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities

Olam is set to see a significant increase in corporate activity in 1H22. Investors would be wise to position in the stock before the newsflow hits...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)