Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Crude Palm Oil (CPO) plantation stocks have lagged the rally in CPO prices, as well as other commodity stocks.  Investors have been generally cautious of chasing the CPO rally via plantation stocks even as CPO prices breach new record highs. </p><p>Market concerns derive from the probability that CPO prices may be in bubble territory and could reverse when supply-side disruptions rebalance. Further, high CPO prices and increased availability of substitute edible oils (such as soybean and sunflower oil) as the latter enters production season could weigh on CPO demand, which has otherwise remained resilient due to strong demand in key markets such as India and China.  </p><p>The Bursa Malaysia plantation index, which tracks the performance of 43 listed planters on Bursa Malaysia, has lost 6.3% year to date, while CPO benchmark prices surged more than 46% over the same period.  Malaysian plantation stocks trade at 18 times price to earnings while regional ones trade at around 11 times price to earnings, which approximates historical lows.</p><p>On a brighter note, Indonesia recently announced the downward revision in palm oil export levies, which encourages exports and should be viewed positively by investors. Could this be the catalyst that the overlooked palm plantation sector needs? </p><p>In this Insight, we examine the following key factors: </p><ul>
<li>CPO sector overview</li>
<li>supply and demand equation </li>
<li>Investment Catalyst - Indonesia's Export Levies  </li>
<li>historical and current correlation between share price and CPO benchmark price  </li>
<li>comparables and valuation</li>
</ul><p>We conclude the article with recommendations for investment opportunities in the sector.</p>

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) plantation stocks have lagged the rally in CPO prices, as well as other commodity stocks.  Investors have been generally cautious of chasing the CPO rally via plantation stocks even as CPO prices breach new record highs. Market concerns derive from the probability that CPO prices may be in bubble territory and could reverse when supply-side disruptions rebalance. Further, high CPO prices and increased availability of substitute edible oils (such as soybean and sunflower oil) as the latter enters production season could weigh on CPO demand, which has otherwise remained resilient due to strong demand in key markets such as India and China.  The Bursa Malaysia plantation index, which tracks the performance of 43 listed planters on Bursa Malaysia, has lost 6.3% year to date, while CPO benchmark prices surged more than 46% over the same period.  Malaysian plantation stocks trade at 18 times price to earnings while regional ones trade at around 11 times price to earnings, which approximates historical lows.On a brighter note, Indonesia recently announced the downward revision in palm oil export levies, which encourages exports and should be viewed positively by investors. Could this be the catalyst that the overlooked palm plantation sector needs? In this Insight, we examine the following key factors: 
CPO sector overview
supply and demand equation 
Investment Catalyst - Indonesia's Export Levies  
historical and current correlation between share price and CPO benchmark price  
comparables and valuation
We conclude the article with recommendations for investment opportunities in the sector.

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) - Which Plantation Stock Could Crush Its Competition?

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/my-eg-services-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19765:1" rel="noopener">My E.G. Services (MYEG MK)</a> , unlike other companies, has the luxury to pivot its business model depending on what the Malaysian government requires. It was providing a permit e-renewal and now it has evolved to providing COVID-19 related service offerings. </p><p>The public's concern on MyEG has always been whether it has ties to a specific government's regime. It does not have a tie to a particular government regime due to its unique business model that the company offers free help for the governments and only asks for traffic and the company will make an effort to upsell certain products through the provided traffic.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>It has survived two governments so far, and I would think they would survive the upcoming government too due to the unique business model. </p></div>

My E.G. Services (MYEG MK) , unlike other companies, has the luxury to pivot its business model depending on what the Malaysian government requires. It was providing a permit e-renewal and now it has evolved to providing COVID-19 related service offerings. The public's concern on MyEG has always been whether it has ties to a specific government's regime. It does not have a tie to a particular government regime due to its unique business model that the company offers free help for the governments and only asks for traffic and the company will make an effort to upsell certain products through the provided traffic.It has survived two governments so far, and I would think they would survive the upcoming government too due to the unique business model. 

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-kepong-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17039:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK)</a> made an offer to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK)</a>/IJMC’s entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-plantations-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12967:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Plantations (IJMP MK)</a>/IJMP for RM3.10 per share in cash, subject to potential dividend adjustments. The offer price is a 26% premium to the unaffected price of RM2.46 per share (prior to the trading halt on 8 June).</p><p>IJMC is IJMP’s largest shareholder and owns 494.9 million shares, representing 56.2% of outstanding shares. The proposed acquisition implies a cost of RM1.53 billion ($371.7 million). KLK’s offer is subject to IJMC’s acceptance and execution of the definitive agreement (SPA) on or before 5.00 p.m. on 11 June 2021 or such a mutually extended date, failing which the offer will lapse. IJMC has stated that is agreeable to finalise the terms with KLK to meet the offer deadline. </p><p>IJMP is listed on the Main Markets of Bursa Malaysia. In Malaysia, the threshold for triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO) is the offeror and concert parties owning 33% or more of the voting shares. If the SPA becomes unconditional, KLK will be required to extend a mandatory general offer to acquire all the remaining IJMP shares for a cash offer price of RM3.10 per share, subject to potential dividend adjustments.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>A key condition precedent for the SPA is approval by both IJMC and KLK shareholders at their respective EGMs. We think that the deal should gain EGM approval as it is attractive to both IJMC and KLK shareholders. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (SPA becoming unconditional).  </p></div>

Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK) made an offer to acquire Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK)/IJMC’s entire stake in Ijm Plantations (IJMP MK)/IJMP for RM3.10 per share in cash, subject to potential dividend adjustments. The offer price is a 26% premium to the unaffected price of RM2.46 per share (prior to the trading halt on 8 June).IJMC is IJMP’s largest shareholder and owns 494.9 million shares, representing 56.2% of outstanding shares. The proposed acquisition implies a cost of RM1.53 billion ($371.7 million). KLK’s offer is subject to IJMC’s acceptance and execution of the definitive agreement (SPA) on or before 5.00 p.m. on 11 June 2021 or such a mutually extended date, failing which the offer will lapse. IJMC has stated that is agreeable to finalise the terms with KLK to meet the offer deadline. IJMP is listed on the Main Markets of Bursa Malaysia. In Malaysia, the threshold for triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO) is the offeror and concert parties owning 33% or more of the voting shares. If the SPA becomes unconditional, KLK will be required to extend a mandatory general offer to acquire all the remaining IJMP shares for a cash offer price of RM3.10 per share, subject to potential dividend adjustments.  A key condition precedent for the SPA is approval by both IJMC and KLK shareholders at their respective EGMs. We think that the deal should gain EGM approval as it is attractive to both IJMC and KLK shareholders. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (SPA becoming unconditional).  

IJM Plantations’ Potential MGO from Kuala Lumpur Kepong

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sing Air, JD Logistics, China Mobile, Angang/Bengang, Link Admin, Xiaomi

<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a>'s discount to NAV at 69%. The ~90% holding into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-co-ltd-8e397b7b-30b8-4284-afc1-e1dc799b2e5c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH)</a> accounts for a staggering 300% of Wilmar's market cap.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div><hr></div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...




I see Wilmar International (WIL SP)'s discount to NAV at 69%. The ~90% holding into Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH) accounts for a staggering 300% of Wilmar's market cap.




Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Wilmar's Stake In Yihai Kerry At 300% Of Market Cap

Singapore

Wilmar International is Asia's leading agribusiness group, operating an integrated model across the agricultural commodity business. Its activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseed crushing, edible oils refining, flour and rice milling, sugar milling and refining, and manufacturing of consumer products, specialty fats, oleochemicals, biodiesel, and fertilizers. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Wilmar International (WIL SP)

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) - Which Plantation Stock Could Crush Its Competition?

CPO plantation stocks have lagged the rally in CPO prices and investors have stayed on the sidelines. However, we believe investor concerns are...

Jason Yap, CFA

MYEG: Providing Help for Malaysia

It has survived two governments so far, and I would think they would survive the upcoming government too due to the unique business model. Buy MyEG...

Henry Soediarko

IJM Plantations’ Potential MGO from Kuala Lumpur Kepong

KLK MK made an offer to acquire IJMC’s entire stake in IJMP for RM3.10 per share in cash, subject to potential dividend adjustments. If the SPA...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sing Air, JD Logistics, China Mobile, Angang/Bengang, Link Admin, Xiaomi

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Wilmar's Stake In Yihai Kerry At 300% Of Market Cap

I'd buy Wilmar here. Management's average buyback price of $5.08/share. YKA accounting for 3x Wilmar's market cap is unstatanble. I see a more...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)