Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Stable result in Q2 2021 despite the increasing COVID-19 cases in Thailand from nightclubs and concerts prompting the Thai government to extend the ban for nightlife entertainment. The interesting part is that contrary to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s </a>observation that the Thais are quite happy to drink and socialize at home versus Vietnamese, who tend to consume outside the home, Sabeco (Saigon Bev Company)'s sales volume actually went up during this period and lifted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> results, further reiterating that the Thai may be happy to drink at home but the difficult period has dampened their home drinking appetite. </p><p>Thai Beverage is still trading at a lower valuation to its peak, the current valuation at 17x PER is still higher than 14x forward PER.  The recent Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as long as the pandemic is still there. </p>

Stable result in Q2 2021 despite the increasing COVID-19 cases in Thailand from nightclubs and concerts prompting the Thai government to extend the ban for nightlife entertainment. The interesting part is that contrary to Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s observation that the Thais are quite happy to drink and socialize at home versus Vietnamese, who tend to consume outside the home, Sabeco (Saigon Bev Company)'s sales volume actually went up during this period and lifted Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) results, further reiterating that the Thai may be happy to drink at home but the difficult period has dampened their home drinking appetite. Thai Beverage is still trading at a lower valuation to its peak, the current valuation at 17x PER is still higher than 14x forward PER.  The recent Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as long as the pandemic is still there. 

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Prosus/Naspers, Wilmar, Invesco Office, Boral, Honshu Chem, Crown Resorts

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a>'s discount to NAV at 63%, around the level when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-co-ltd-8e397b7b-30b8-4284-afc1-e1dc799b2e5c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH)</a> IPO'ed last October, and closing in on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archer-daniels-midland-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14746:1" rel="noopener">Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM US)</a>'s placement levels last August. Wilmar is cheap here.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



I see Wilmar International (WIL SP)'s discount to NAV at 63%, around the level when Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH) IPO'ed last October, and closing in on the Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM US)'s placement levels last August. Wilmar is cheap here.



Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Buybacks Resume Into Inexpensive Wilmar

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5051:1" rel="noopener">Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP)</a> is a part of the once sprawling worldwide Del Monte food empire. Over the past couple of decades, that empire was subsequently fragmented into several geographical blocks, creating confusion and investors have lost the forest from the trees.</p><p>Change is in the air and multiple IPO's could unlock substantial value over the coming 12-18 months. Del Monte's core business has benefited from CFH (Cook-From-Home) as lockdowns and home-office arrangements have people dine-in rather than dine-out. DELM is also a food-inflation play as it will be easier for Del Monte to pass on price increases to their customers in a rising price environment.</p><p>Below we will explain in detail why DELM has the potential to be radically transformed and how a multi-bagger return could be on the table. DELM currently has no analyst coverage. Just as we saw with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/straits-trading-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15745:1" rel="noopener">Straits Trading (STRTR SP)</a> it only takes one broker (who is interested in IPO fees) to highlight the opportunity to investors to put some spice under DELM's valuation. Another analogy would be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> and the listing of its Chinese subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdin-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29184:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdin-A (YKIVCZ CH)</a>.</p><p>Risks to the story are a reversal in CFH, continued large debt burden, and execution issues.</p>

Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) is a part of the once sprawling worldwide Del Monte food empire. Over the past couple of decades, that empire was subsequently fragmented into several geographical blocks, creating confusion and investors have lost the forest from the trees.Change is in the air and multiple IPO's could unlock substantial value over the coming 12-18 months. Del Monte's core business has benefited from CFH (Cook-From-Home) as lockdowns and home-office arrangements have people dine-in rather than dine-out. DELM is also a food-inflation play as it will be easier for Del Monte to pass on price increases to their customers in a rising price environment.Below we will explain in detail why DELM has the potential to be radically transformed and how a multi-bagger return could be on the table. DELM currently has no analyst coverage. Just as we saw with Straits Trading (STRTR SP) it only takes one broker (who is interested in IPO fees) to highlight the opportunity to investors to put some spice under DELM's valuation. Another analogy would be Wilmar International (WIL SP) and the listing of its Chinese subsidiary Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdin-A (YKIVCZ CH).Risks to the story are a reversal in CFH, continued large debt burden, and execution issues.

Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP): Cook-From-Home and Multiple Subsidiary IPO's to Unlock Large Upside?

Last Week in Event SPACE: OFAC's Humdinger, China Mobile, NTT, Car Inc, Pressance, Tianneng Power

Singapore

Wilmar International is Asia's leading agribusiness group, operating an integrated model across the agricultural commodity business. Its activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseed crushing, edible oils refining, flour and rice milling, sugar milling and refining, and manufacturing of consumer products, specialty fats, oleochemicals, biodiesel, and fertilizers. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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Wilmar International (WIL SP)

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as...

Henry Soediarko

Last Week in Event SPACE: Prosus/Naspers, Wilmar, Invesco Office, Boral, Honshu Chem, Crown Resorts

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Buybacks Resume Into Inexpensive Wilmar

Wilmar looks inexpensive here, even for a cross-border, possibly-difficult-to-short subsidiary, Holdco situation. Potential near-term catalysts...

David Blennerhassett

Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP): Cook-From-Home and Multiple Subsidiary IPO's to Unlock Large Upside?

Del Monte Pacific, dual-listed in Singapore and the Philippines, is valued at a mere 350M USD but potentially sits on a treasure trove of...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Last Week in Event SPACE: OFAC's Humdinger, China Mobile, NTT, Car Inc, Pressance, Tianneng Power

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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