Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p><em>This week in StubWorld ...</em></p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> continues to outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ppb-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:793:1" rel="noopener">Ppb Group (PEP MK)</a> after the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdin-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29184:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999 CH)</a> spin-off; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a> is cheap, and there are catalysts in the pipeline apart from the recently announced demerger; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6315:1" rel="noopener">China Motor (2204 TT)</a> is trading cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yulon-motor-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18249:1" rel="noopener">Yulon Motor Company (2201 TT)</a>, which in turn is trading rich to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-acceptance-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13398:1" rel="noopener">Yulon Finance Corp (9941 TT)</a>. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...


Wilmar International (WIL SP) continues to outperform Ppb Group (PEP MK) after the Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999 CH) spin-off; LG Corp (003550 KS) is cheap, and there are catalysts in the pipeline apart from the recently announced demerger; and China Motor (2204 TT) is trading cheap to Yulon Motor Company (2201 TT), which in turn is trading rich to Yulon Finance Corp (9941 TT). 



Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: PPB/Wilmar, LG Corp, China Motor/Yulon Motor

Last Week in Event SPACE: Evergrande, Link Admin, NTT Docomo, Melifecare, Wipro, Wilmar, Huya/DouYu

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<p>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29184:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH)</a> (YKA) commenced trading on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (ChiNext Board). Priced at RMB25.70/share, shares closed at RMB56/share. Shares are currently changing hands at RMB49.  That backs out a trailing PER of ~59x.</p>
<p>And Wilmar's reaction yesterday? Down 6.4% in what appears to be a "sell the news" trade.</p>
<p>I see Wilmar's discount to NAV at 55%. Shares haven't retested near-term highs since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archer-daniels-midland-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14746:1" rel="noopener">Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM US)</a>'s placement in August. But since that placement, uncertainty over YKA's IPO has been removed. Wilmar is cheap here.</p>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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<p><em>For some background history on YKA's IPO, please refer to past insights below:</em></p>
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<td style="width: 124.782px;">17-Sep-20</td>
<td style="width: 578.75px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/U4wbi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wilmar: China Ops IPO One Step Closer</a></td>
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<td style="width: 124.782px;">29-Sep-20</td>
<td style="width: 578.75px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/xBrVA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wilmar: YKA's Pricing &amp; Cheap Rump Stake</a></td>
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Yesterday, Wilmar International (WIL SP)'s Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH) (YKA) commenced trading on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (ChiNext Board). Priced at RMB25.70/share, shares closed at RMB56/share. Shares are currently changing hands at RMB49.  That backs out a trailing PER of ~59x.
And Wilmar's reaction yesterday? Down 6.4% in what appears to be a "sell the news" trade.
I see Wilmar's discount to NAV at 55%. Shares haven't retested near-term highs since Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM US)'s placement in August. But since that placement, uncertainty over YKA's IPO has been removed. Wilmar is cheap here.
As always, more below the fold.



For some background history on YKA's IPO, please refer to past insights below:






Date 


Insight



17-Sep-20
Wilmar: China Ops IPO One Step Closer


29-Sep-20
Wilmar: YKA's Pricing &amp; Cheap Rump Stake









Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Docomo, Evergrande Properties/Auto, Wilmar, Swire, Immunomedics

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<p>Back on the 12 July, major agribusiness outfit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Wilmar_announcement_on_proposed_China_IPO_dd_12Jul2019%20.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=570225" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) had accepted Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' (YKA) application for its proposed listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (ChiNext Board).</p>
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<p>YKA is one of the largest agribusiness and food processing companies in China and is currently 99.99% held by Wilmar.</p>
<p>I discussed this IPO in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/U4wbi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Ops IPO One Step Closer</a></em>.</p>
<p>An indicative timetable has now been <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Wilmar_announcement_on_China_listing_timetable_18Sep2020.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=632078" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued</a> with an expected listing mid-October.</p>
<p>The issue price will be <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Wilmar_announcement_on_update_on_China_listing_24Sept2020.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=632581" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RMB25.70/share</a>, or a 31.12x YKA's FY19 recurring net profit. The unlisted stub is trading at an implied trailing PER of 3x.</p>
<p>The amount to be raised is RMB13.933bn for 10% of shares out on fully diluted basis. Investor interest has been strong - with the online portion for RMB5.82bn oversubscribed 600+x. </p>
<p>Wilmar is trading flat over the past month, and up 9% YTD. I think the stock has more to run.</p>
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Back on the 12 July, major agribusiness outfit Wilmar International (WIL SP) announced that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) had accepted Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' (YKA) application for its proposed listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (ChiNext Board).


YKA is one of the largest agribusiness and food processing companies in China and is currently 99.99% held by Wilmar.
I discussed this IPO in China Ops IPO One Step Closer.
An indicative timetable has now been issued with an expected listing mid-October.
The issue price will be RMB25.70/share, or a 31.12x YKA's FY19 recurring net profit. The unlisted stub is trading at an implied trailing PER of 3x.
The amount to be raised is RMB13.933bn for 10% of shares out on fully diluted basis. Investor interest has been strong - with the online portion for RMB5.82bn oversubscribed 600+x. 
Wilmar is trading flat over the past month, and up 9% YTD. I think the stock has more to run.






Singapore

Wilmar International is Asia's leading agribusiness group, operating an integrated model across the agricultural commodity business. Its activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseed crushing, edible oils refining, flour and rice milling, sugar milling and refining, and manufacturing of consumer products, specialty fats, oleochemicals, biodiesel, and fertilizers. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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Wilmar International (WIL SP)

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Wilmar: YKA's Pricing & Cheap Rump Stake

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David Blennerhassett

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