HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cxmt-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)</a> beats its prospectus forecast in 1H26 earnings, posting net profit of Rmb77.6bn. In 2Q26, it made Rmb52.8bn. </li>
<li>Demand outlook will stay encouraging in 2H26, and the market consensus appears conservative now. This means upside potential for earnings forecasts.</li>
<li>While at 22x FY26 PER, CXMT looks expensive, its high 3-year EPS CAGR justifies it. Moreover, its 0.05x PEG is below the sector average.  </li>
</ul>



CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) beats its prospectus forecast in 1H26 earnings, posting net profit of Rmb77.6bn. In 2Q26, it made Rmb52.8bn. 
Demand outlook will stay encouraging in 2H26, and the market consensus appears conservative now. This means upside potential for earnings forecasts.
While at 22x FY26 PER, CXMT looks expensive, its high 3-year EPS CAGR justifies it. Moreover, its 0.05x PEG is below the sector average.  


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH): Blown Through the Roof

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 28th. The aggregated holding was USD2,277.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,814mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, E.SUN Financial, Nanya Technology, Unimicron Technology, MediaTek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 28th. The aggregated holding was USD2,277.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,814mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, E.SUN Financial, Nanya Technology, Unimicron Technology, MediaTek.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 28th): TSMC, E.SUN Financial, Nanya Technology, MediaTek

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 28th. The aggregated short interest was USD43.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Jentech Precision Industrial, Winbond Electronics, Evergreen Marine, FOSITEK.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 28th. The aggregated short interest was USD43.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Jentech Precision Industrial, Winbond Electronics, Evergreen Marine, FOSITEK.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 28th): Shin Kong Financial, Jentech Precision Industrial, FOSITEK

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Memory revenue re-accelerated well ahead of its seasonal pace: the six memory names grew revenue +32% MoM after about +4% in June, roughly twice their pace in July last year.</li>
<li>Taiwan's assemblers look weaker than they are: nine of thirteen ODM, EMS and PC-brand names saw revenue fall sequentially, yet the group beat its own July 2025 decline.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a>'s revenue nearly quadrupled in two months and its filing reversed: after three months reporting mass-production declines, it reported growth, the only commentary change in our universe.</li>
</ul>


Memory revenue re-accelerated well ahead of its seasonal pace: the six memory names grew revenue +32% MoM after about +4% in June, roughly twice their pace in July last year.
Taiwan's assemblers look weaker than they are: nine of thirteen ODM, EMS and PC-brand names saw revenue fall sequentially, yet the group beat its own July 2025 decline.

Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)'s revenue nearly quadrupled in two months and its filing reversed: after three months reporting mass-production declines, it reported growth, the only commentary change in our universe.


Taiwan Supply Chain Signals: Memory Revenue Re-Accelerates While Custom AI Chip Revenue Ramps

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2023 DRAM + NAND revenues declined 36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Forecasting ~40% YoY growth in 2024, bringing overall memory revenues back to roughly 2022 levels</li>
<li>ASML's Memory-related WFE revenue in 2023 was an all time record high at $5.9 billion. Much of that was spent in China and its impact remains to be seen..</li>
</ul>


2023 DRAM + NAND revenues declined 36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022.
Forecasting ~40% YoY growth in 2024, bringing overall memory revenues back to roughly 2022 levels
ASML's Memory-related WFE revenue in 2023 was an all time record high at $5.9 billion. Much of that was spent in China and its impact remains to be seen..


Semiconductor Memory 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

Taiwan

Winbond Electronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated circuits (IC) and related products.  The Company sells its products in Taiwan, the United States, and Hong Kong.

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Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH): Blown Through the Roof

CXMT's 1H26 results beat its prospectus forecast significantly, with stronger revenue growth and margin expansion. Its 3-year PEG is below sector...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 28th): TSMC, E.SUN Financial, Nanya Technology, MediaTek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, E.SUN Financial, Nanya Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 28th): Shin Kong Financial, Jentech Precision Industrial, FOSITEK

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Jentech Precision...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Supply Chain Signals: Memory Revenue Re-Accelerates While Custom AI Chip Revenue Ramps

We analyze the latest monthly revenue data across Taiwan's technology supply chain. Four key signals emerge from the latest results.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

2023 memory revenues -36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022. Forecasting >40% YoY growth in 2024,...

William Keating

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