New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Winton (WIN) reported a soft FY25 result with reported EBIT down -61%, reflecting lower residential unit sales and higher operating costs.</li><li>Average selling prices per units increased +4% on the prior year due to a higher value sales mix of the units settled.</li><li>Northbrook opened its first village in May 2025 at stage 1 of Wanaka (32 residences) with central facilities to be opened by the end of the year.</li></ul>

Winton (WIN) reported a soft FY25 result with reported EBIT down -61%, reflecting lower residential unit sales and higher operating costs.Average selling prices per units increased +4% on the prior year due to a higher value sales mix of the units settled.Northbrook opened its first village in May 2025 at stage 1 of Wanaka (32 residences) with central facilities to be opened by the end of the year.

Winton (WIN): FY25 Result – Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Winton (WIN) reported a soft 1H25 result, impacted by lower residential lot sales and higher operating costs as it ramps up hospitality operations.</li><li>The first residents will move into Northbrook, Wanaka in 2H25, though construction starts at other villages have been delayed.</li><li>Larger near-term hospitality losses and a slower Northbrook build-out have led us to push forecasts out by 12 months. </li></ul>

Winton (WIN) reported a soft 1H25 result, impacted by lower residential lot sales and higher operating costs as it ramps up hospitality operations.The first residents will move into Northbrook, Wanaka in 2H25, though construction starts at other villages have been delayed.Larger near-term hospitality losses and a slower Northbrook build-out have led us to push forecasts out by 12 months. 

Winton Land - 1H25—Hospitality Costs, Northbrook Delays

Equity Capital Markets

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The listed property sector was broadly flat in October after delivering a +18% total return year-to-date.</li><li>Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk of further capital raisings weighed on sentiment.</li><li>Our analysis of the sector’s long-term development pipelines and potential funding options highlights a divide between those with access to capital (PCT, Goodman (GMT)) and those without, who may need to recycle non-core assets or tap into additional sources of capital to fund growth aspirations.</li></ul>

The listed property sector was broadly flat in October after delivering a +18% total return year-to-date.Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk of further capital raisings weighed on sentiment.Our analysis of the sector’s long-term development pipelines and potential funding options highlights a divide between those with access to capital (PCT, Goodman (GMT)) and those without, who may need to recycle non-core assets or tap into additional sources of capital to fund growth aspirations.

Real Estate Reflections Taking a Breather

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.</li><li>We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.</li><li>The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.</li></ul>

Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.</li><li>Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.</li><li>We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.</li></ul>

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

New Zealand

Winton Land Limited operates as a real estate company. The Company develops resident lots, dwellings, apartments, and retirement units. Winton Land serves customers in New Zealand.

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Winton Land Ltd (WIN NZ)

Winton (WIN): FY25 Result – Initial Thoughts

Winton (WIN) reported a soft FY25 result with reported EBIT down -61%, reflecting lower residential unit sales and higher operating costs.

Forsyth Barr

Winton Land - 1H25—Hospitality Costs, Northbrook Delays

Winton (WIN) reported a soft 1H25 result, impacted by lower residential lot sales and higher operating costs as it ramps up hospitality operations.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Taking a Breather

Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Hot Property

We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.

Forsyth Barr

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