New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September.</li><li>The sector is well hedged in the short term, which should cushion the immediate earnings impact, though rates remain a headwind to modest earnings growth forecasts.</li><li>We continue to see attractive value within the sector, trading on 16x 12-month forward AFFO and a 9.0% gross yield (33% taxpayer), a slightly wider premium to bonds than the historical average, and a -26% discount to NTA, though we acknowledge bond rates are firmly in control in the short term.</li></ul>

Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September.The sector is well hedged in the short term, which should cushion the immediate earnings impact, though rates remain a headwind to modest earnings growth forecasts.We continue to see attractive value within the sector, trading on 16x 12-month forward AFFO and a 9.0% gross yield (33% taxpayer), a slightly wider premium to bonds than the historical average, and a -26% discount to NTA, though we acknowledge bond rates are firmly in control in the short term.

Real Estate Reflections: Rising Rates Rule the Roost

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Winton (WIN) reported a solid FY26 result, with NPAT up +120% to NZ$22.7m, driven by a strong pick-up in residential-lot sales in the second half.</li><li>The Commercial segment was stronger than expected with revenue up +69%, supported by the first full year of trading across the Ayrburn precinct and the opening of Bravo at Cracker Bay.</li><li>WIN’s busy year was rounded out with Fast-track approval of Sunfield, which could unlock significant value.</li></ul>

Winton (WIN) reported a solid FY26 result, with NPAT up +120% to NZ$22.7m, driven by a strong pick-up in residential-lot sales in the second half.The Commercial segment was stronger than expected with revenue up +69%, supported by the first full year of trading across the Ayrburn precinct and the opening of Bravo at Cracker Bay.WIN’s busy year was rounded out with Fast-track approval of Sunfield, which could unlock significant value.

Winton Land FY26 Result—Strong Finish Despite the Noise

<ul><li>We downgrade Winton (WIN) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>WIN's Founder, Chair, CEO, and largest shareholder Chris Meehan is taking leave effective immediately for health reasons.</li><li>The broader operating backdrop also remains challenging given the further softness in the housing market and likely slowdown in activity ahead of the general election.</li></ul>

We downgrade Winton (WIN) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.WIN's Founder, Chair, CEO, and largest shareholder Chris Meehan is taking leave effective immediately for health reasons.The broader operating backdrop also remains challenging given the further softness in the housing market and likely slowdown in activity ahead of the general election.

Winton Land Founder Takes Leave—Down to NEUTRAL

<ul><li>The listed property sector continued its soft year with August down -1.1%, taking year-to-date performance to -7.3%.</li><li>August reporting season was largely as expected; solid occupancy, underlying rent growth, and slightly lower interest costs supported earnings growth.</li><li>We continue to view the sector as attractive trading at a discount to the book value of assets and replacement cost and offering a strong tax-efficient yield when compared to other dividend-focused sectors and fixed-income alternatives.</li></ul>

The listed property sector continued its soft year with August down -1.1%, taking year-to-date performance to -7.3%.August reporting season was largely as expected; solid occupancy, underlying rent growth, and slightly lower interest costs supported earnings growth.We continue to view the sector as attractive trading at a discount to the book value of assets and replacement cost and offering a strong tax-efficient yield when compared to other dividend-focused sectors and fixed-income alternatives.

Real Estate Reflections Rates Weighing on the Sector

<ul><li>We upgrade Winton (WIN) to OUTPERFORM following approval of its Sunfield project in Auckland.</li><li>We have made minor adjustments to our forecasts but lift our 12-month target price to NZ$2.75.</li><li>While the approval unlocks significant value, the market may await confirmation of industrial/town centre land sales and/or significant early residential pre-sales to rerate the stock.</li></ul>

We upgrade Winton (WIN) to OUTPERFORM following approval of its Sunfield project in Auckland.We have made minor adjustments to our forecasts but lift our 12-month target price to NZ$2.75.While the approval unlocks significant value, the market may await confirmation of industrial/town centre land sales and/or significant early residential pre-sales to rerate the stock.

Winton Land The Sun Rises—Upgrade to OUTPERFORM

New Zealand

Winton Land Limited operates as a real estate company. The Company develops resident lots, dwellings, apartments, and retirement units. Winton Land serves customers in New Zealand.

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Winton Land Ltd (WIN NZ)

Real Estate Reflections: Rising Rates Rule the Roost

Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September. The sector is well hedged in the short term,...

Forsyth Barr

Winton Land FY26 Result—Strong Finish Despite the Noise

Winton (WIN) reported a solid FY26 result, with NPAT up +120% to NZ$22.7m, driven by a strong pick-up in residential-lot sales in the second...

Forsyth Barr

Winton Land Founder Takes Leave—Down to NEUTRAL

We downgrade Winton (WIN) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM. WIN's Founder, Chair, CEO, and largest shareholder Chris Meehan is taking leave effective...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Rates Weighing on the Sector

The listed property sector continued its soft year with August down -1.1%, taking year-to-date performance to -7.3%. August reporting season was...

Forsyth Barr

Winton Land The Sun Rises—Upgrade to OUTPERFORM

We upgrade Winton (WIN) to OUTPERFORM following approval of its Sunfield project in Auckland.We have made minor adjustments to our forecasts but...

Forsyth Barr

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