Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report.

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report. 

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Author has a "one problem policy" for investing, avoiding companies with multiple issues that can compound and erode safety margins</li><li>Issues with Wizz include high leverage, engine problems grounding fleet, expensive wet leases impacting earnings, and inherent airline risks</li><li>Despite challenges, wet leases to end soon and management projects improved net income in the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Author has a "one problem policy" for investing, avoiding companies with multiple issues that can compound and erode safety marginsIssues with Wizz include high leverage, engine problems grounding fleet, expensive wet leases impacting earnings, and inherent airline risksDespite challenges, wet leases to end soon and management projects improved net income in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Wizz Air Holdings Plc (WIZZ) - Tuesday, Oct 8, 2024

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. </li>
<li>​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.</li>
<li>​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.</li>
</ul>


Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. 
​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.
​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.


<ul>
<li>Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.</li>
<li>​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.</li>
<li>Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.</li>
</ul>


Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.
​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.
Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.


European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

United Kingdom

Wizz Air is an ultra-low-cost airline group providing passenger air transportation services, primarily operating scheduled short-haul and medium-haul point-to-point routes across Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and Northwest Asia. The company focuses on maximizing aircraft utilization and offering unbundled pricing. Wizz Air was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Budapest, Hungary.

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Wizz Air (WIZZ LN)

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the...

Vermilion Research

Wizz Air Holdings Plc (WIZZ) - Tuesday, Oct 8, 2024

Author has a "one problem policy" for investing, avoiding companies with multiple issues that can compound and erode safety margins

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Wizz Air - Fitness for 500?

Deep dive on Wizz Air's margin challenges and framing the key concerns management needs to address at its upcoming CMD on 1/2 October

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

Deep dive on peak summer/early winter fare data pinpoints potential negative surprises to expectations at easyJet and Wizz Air

Neil Glynn

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