Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.</li>
<li>The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.</li>
<li>The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).</li>
</ul>


We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.
The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.
The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).


Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The new head of Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) Chairman Lim Jong-Ryong recently revealed his willingness to acquire a major/mid-scale securities company.</li>
<li>Among these potential acquisition candidates, Samsung Securities is considered to be the most likely securities companies that could be purchased by Woori Financial Group.</li>
<li>In the long term (next 2-3 years), there is a good probability that Woori Financial Group could acquire Samsung Securities, which is not a core business of the Samsung Group.</li>
</ul>


The new head of Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) Chairman Lim Jong-Ryong recently revealed his willingness to acquire a major/mid-scale securities company.
Among these potential acquisition candidates, Samsung Securities is considered to be the most likely securities companies that could be purchased by Woori Financial Group.
In the long term (next 2-3 years), there is a good probability that Woori Financial Group could acquire Samsung Securities, which is not a core business of the Samsung Group.


Will Woori Financial Group Acquire Samsung Securities?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities (008560 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the close on 31 March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> at the close of trading on 31 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.</li>
</ul>


As expected, DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) replaces Meritz Securities (008560 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 31 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) at the close of trading on 31 March.

DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.


KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

<ul>
<li>On Friday 10 March, Svb Financial (SIVB US) suddenly collapsed, becoming the largest bank to fail in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.</li>
<li>In our view, the collapse of SVB Financial will likely have a negative near-term impact on the Korean banks. </li>
<li>Three ways that this will negatively impact Korean banks include risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean banks, and lower interest rate spreads. </li>
</ul>


On Friday 10 March, Svb Financial (SIVB US) suddenly collapsed, becoming the largest bank to fail in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.
In our view, the collapse of SVB Financial will likely have a negative near-term impact on the Korean banks. 
Three ways that this will negatively impact Korean banks include risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean banks, and lower interest rate spreads. 


Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - Impact on Korean Banks

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>K200 ad hoc change announcement date should be March 30 as the buyback ends on March 28, and rebalancing trading should occur on March 31.</li>
<li>From a juice-level perspective, the entry point and timing for JB Financial showed much better performance from EGM approval rather than the announcement.</li>
<li>We should consider gradually building up positions from this point until March 30 announcement or one day after (T-1 effective) while utilizing Kodex Banks ETF to hedge our long positions.</li>
</ul>


K200 ad hoc change announcement date should be March 30 as the buyback ends on March 28, and rebalancing trading should occur on March 31.
From a juice-level perspective, the entry point and timing for JB Financial showed much better performance from EGM approval rather than the announcement.
We should consider gradually building up positions from this point until March 30 announcement or one day after (T-1 effective) while utilizing Kodex Banks ETF to hedge our long positions.


Meritz Merger Approved: Let's Now Discuss Key Dates & Entry Points For LONG DGB Financial

South Korea

Woori Financial Group Inc. provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposit services, loan services, bill services, settlement services, credit card, international, online banking, and other related services. Woori Financial Group also operates banking and retail banking businesses.

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Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

Will Woori Financial Group Acquire Samsung Securities?

In the long term (next 2-3 years), there is a good probability that Woori Financial Group could acquire Samsung Securities, which is not a core...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

DGB Financial will be added to the KOSPI200 Index on 31 March. The stock trades cheaper than its peers but becomes short sell eligible from the...

Brian Freitas

Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - Impact on Korean Banks

The collapse of SVB Financial will negatively impact Korean banks due to risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean...

Douglas Kim

Meritz Merger Approved: Let's Now Discuss Key Dates & Entry Points For LONG DGB Financial

Entry points and key dates for long positions in DGB Financial following KOSPI 200 ad hoc change due to the Meritz merger

Sanghyun Park

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