Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">A wrong hire, skills mismatch, and inadequate training equals low efficiency and lost productivity. Companies pay a significant price for not correctly managing talent. It does not stop there. Low transparency, missed opportunities, and weak management lead to frustration and dissatisfaction for employees. The result is a lack of motivation and employee exits. Both companies and employees suffer when talent is not </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">adequately managed</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">. Companies can scarcely afford to lose or </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">misallocate</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> the right people as the costs are enormous - lost productivity, lost business, and a dysfunctional environment that hurts from the top to bottom line. Talent management plays a critical role in the modern company, and in many cases, it can mean the difference between a successful culture and going out of business. Enter <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaonavi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29703:1" rel="noopener">Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP)</a> </span></p>
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A wrong hire, skills mismatch, and inadequate training equals low efficiency and lost productivity. Companies pay a significant price for not correctly managing talent. It does not stop there. Low transparency, missed opportunities, and weak management lead to frustration and dissatisfaction for employees. The result is a lack of motivation and employee exits. Both companies and employees suffer when talent is not adequately managed. Companies can scarcely afford to lose or misallocate the right people as the costs are enormous - lost productivity, lost business, and a dysfunctional environment that hurts from the top to bottom line. Talent management plays a critical role in the modern company, and in many cases, it can mean the difference between a successful culture and going out of business. Enter Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) 


Small Cap Growth: Kaonavi (4435) – Turning Talent into Teams

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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">In May, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that more than 95% of the company’s workforce was working remotely and that it planned to ensure employees could continue to do so on a long-term basis. Google workers will stay remote until summer 2021. Many others made similar announcements. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">This would have been unthinkable even a decade ago, but cloud-based platforms are enabling employees to work from anywhere, on any device. Companies must now deploy systems rapidly, in a cost-effective and scalable manner to adapt to this new worldview. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teamspirit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29704:1" rel="noopener">TeamSpirit Inc (4397 JP)</a> ’s</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> workforce management platform helps Japanese companies to support telework, not only an essential way of working following the outbreak of COVID-19, but also a necessity as companies shift to a hybrid workforce. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><strong> <span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Recent FY8/20 numbers (13 October)</span> </strong></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Q4 revenue +25% YoY to ¥654m (slowed from 38% YoY in Q3)</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Gross margin 60%</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Annual Recurring Revenue +32% to ¥2.2b</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Number of active licenses rose 41% to 269,000</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> <br></span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Number of client companies 1,409 (+14% YoY; +2% QoQ)</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Covid had a negative impact on the business. The inflow of leads slowed due to the cancellation of promotional events. On boarding was delayed as customer struggled with the unfamiliarity of telework, with small businesses in particular slowing in terms of </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">licenses</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> added.</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">The company guided for 29% revenue growth in FY8/21</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">The stock has corrected by around 20% in the week following full year earnings and is worth looking at for long-term growth investors.</span></p>
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In May, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that more than 95% of the company’s workforce was working remotely and that it planned to ensure employees could continue to do so on a long-term basis. Google workers will stay remote until summer 2021. Many others made similar announcements.  


This would have been unthinkable even a decade ago, but cloud-based platforms are enabling employees to work from anywhere, on any device. Companies must now deploy systems rapidly, in a cost-effective and scalable manner to adapt to this new worldview.  


TeamSpirit Inc (4397 JP) ’s workforce management platform helps Japanese companies to support telework, not only an essential way of working following the outbreak of COVID-19, but also a necessity as companies shift to a hybrid workforce.  

 Recent FY8/20 numbers (13 October) 


Q4 revenue +25% YoY to ¥654m (slowed from 38% YoY in Q3) 


Gross margin 60% 


Annual Recurring Revenue +32% to ¥2.2b 


Number of active licenses rose 41% to 269,000  Number of client companies 1,409 (+14% YoY; +2% QoQ) 



Covid had a negative impact on the business. The inflow of leads slowed due to the cancellation of promotional events. On boarding was delayed as customer struggled with the unfamiliarity of telework, with small businesses in particular slowing in terms of licenses added. The company guided for 29% revenue growth in FY8/21 


The stock has corrected by around 20% in the week following full year earnings and is worth looking at for long-term growth investors.


Small Cap Growth: TeamSpirit (4397) - Nirvana for Workers

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been blown away by the surge in its stock and multiple...it went from 15x forward sales to 25x last quarter and stands at 35x forward sales today. <span>A lack of disclosure around Coupa Pay progress and a potentially "conservative" 3Q21 billings guidance says to us its time to move to the sidelines on Coupa and await a better re-entry point</span>. </p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been blown away by the surge in its stock and multiple...it went from 15x forward sales to 25x last quarter and stands at 35x forward sales today. A lack of disclosure around Coupa Pay progress and a potentially "conservative" 3Q21 billings guidance says to us its time to move to the sidelines on Coupa and await a better re-entry point. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<div><p>We  have been longtime <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> bulls who remain long and think the outsized growth and profitability shown in 2Q20 is just the beginning...we think there is 30% upside from here.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

We  have been longtime Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) bulls who remain long and think the outsized growth and profitability shown in 2Q20 is just the beginning...we think there is 30% upside from here.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agora-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29037:1" rel="noopener">Agora Inc. (API US)</a>  is looking to raise up to US$431m in its upcoming IPO with concurrent placement.</p><p>The company runs a platform that provides developers with Application Programming Interfaces (API) to embed real-time video, voice and messaging functionalities into their application without having to build it from scratch themselves. </p><p>We think that the lack of disclosure and potentially high churn of customers (mentioned in previous note) are causes of concern that the current valuation at IPO price range do not account for.</p><p>In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.</p><p>Our earlier coverage of the IPO: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/agora-pre-ipo-voicing-out-concerns-on-data-disclosure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40273" rel="noopener">Agora Pre-IPO - Voicing Out Concerns on Data Disclosure</a> </p>

Agora Inc. (API US)  is looking to raise up to US$431m in its upcoming IPO with concurrent placement.The company runs a platform that provides developers with Application Programming Interfaces (API) to embed real-time video, voice and messaging functionalities into their application without having to build it from scratch themselves. We think that the lack of disclosure and potentially high churn of customers (mentioned in previous note) are causes of concern that the current valuation at IPO price range do not account for.In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.Our earlier coverage of the IPO: Agora Pre-IPO - Voicing Out Concerns on Data Disclosure 

Agora Inc. IPO - Same Issues at Unattractive Valuation

United States

Workday, Inc. provides enterprise cloud-based applications. The Company offers human capital, spend, and financial management, as well as payroll, initiatives and higher education solutions. Workday serves the finance, healthcare, manufacturing, education, and technology industries worldwide.

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Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US)

Small Cap Growth: Kaonavi (4435) – Turning Talent into Teams

Talent management plays a critical role in the modern company, and in many cases, it can mean the difference between a successful culture and going...

Mark Chadwick

Small Cap Growth: TeamSpirit (4397) - Nirvana for Workers

TeamSpirit is a cloud-based Workforce Management SaaS that enables workers to work from anywhere and allows companies to get the best out of their...

Mark Chadwick

Coupa 2Q21: P/S Multiples Are Coup-Ed Up

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in...

Aaron Gabin

Amazon 2Q20: Goliath Is Still….Cheap?

We have been longtime Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) bulls who remain long and think the outsized growth and profitability shown in 2Q20 is just the...

Aaron Gabin

Agora Inc. IPO - Same Issues at Unattractive Valuation

Agora Inc. (API US) is looking to raise up to US$431m in its upcoming IPO with concurrent placement.The company runs a platform that provides...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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