'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/341/original/2019-02-10_05-07-57.png?1549742898" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78341"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>BOTTOM LINE BREAKDOWN - 1,277 earnings results and/or revisions announcements were released last week in Japan covering 36% of listed market capitalisation. The good news is that aggregate trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income only declined by ¥300b. Less welcome is the ¥1.7t decline in TTM Net Income to which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/154" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7797" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1">Hitachi (6501 JP)</a> were the most significant contributors, each declining by more than ¥200b. Three 'financials', <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/742" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6267" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6267:1">Suruga Bank (8358 JP)</a> subtracted ¥400b between them. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/563" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1">Sony (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> added more than ¥100b for the quarter. The substantial 'gap' between forecast and TTM Net Income has been reduced to just ¥600b, again confirming the reliability of corporate forecasting in Japan. The All-Market PER is now 13.5 times but will likely rise as aggregate Net Income falls further in the next two weeks.<div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we review this year's results of all listed companies in aggregate, update our All-Market and Sector Results &amp; Revision Scores and look at the twenty-five best and worst large-cap company results over the last week, with short comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13176" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13176:1">Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman (7564 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20823" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20823:1">Nakanishi (7716 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1">DeNA (2432 JP)</a></div>

Source: Japan AnalyticsBOTTOM LINE BREAKDOWN - 1,277 earnings results and/or revisions announcements were released last week in Japan covering 36% of listed market capitalisation. The good news is that aggregate trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income only declined by ¥300b. Less welcome is the ¥1.7t decline in TTM Net Income to which Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP), Hitachi (6501 JP) were the most significant contributors, each declining by more than ¥200b. Three 'financials', Nomura Holdings (8604 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP), and Suruga Bank (8358 JP) subtracted ¥400b between them. Only Sony (6758 JP) and Toshiba (6502 JP) added more than ¥100b for the quarter. The substantial 'gap' between forecast and TTM Net Income has been reduced to just ¥600b, again confirming the reliability of corporate forecasting in Japan. The All-Market PER is now 13.5 times but will likely rise as aggregate Net Income falls further in the next two weeks.In the DETAIL section below, we review this year's results of all listed companies in aggregate, update our All-Market and Sector Results &amp; Revision Scores and look at the twenty-five best and worst large-cap company results over the last week, with short comments on Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP), Workman (7564 JP), Nakanishi (7716 JP), and DeNA (2432 JP)

Japan: Results & Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown

- MARKET COMPOSITE -
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/076/724/original/2019-01-26_17-35-03.png?1548496734" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="76724"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
SLOW &amp; STEADY RECOVERY - From December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the weighted sum of moving averages have continued to recover to now 19% by number and 26% by value. Total Market Value has now risen by 11.2% from the Christmas Day low and is overdue a 'breather'.
<hr>
- SECTORS -
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/076/725/original/2019-01-26_17-29-21.png?1548497304" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="76725"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by their percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Media, Healthcare and Utilities continue from our previous review with Restaurants replacing Transportation. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Autos, Metals, Building Materials, and Chemicals remain from two weeks ago, with Construction replacing Autos. 
<hr>
- COMPANIES -
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/076/763/original/2019-01-27_15-07-37.png?1548569281" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="76763"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/076/775/original/2019-01-27_16-34-40.png?1548574490" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="76775"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26722" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26722:1">UUUM (3990 JP)</a> is currently the most 'extreme' positive outlier, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> the most 'extreme' negative outlier

- MARKET COMPOSITE -

Source: Japan Analytics
SLOW &amp; STEADY RECOVERY - From December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the weighted sum of moving averages have continued to recover to now 19% by number and 26% by value. Total Market Value has now risen by 11.2% from the Christmas Day low and is overdue a 'breather'.

- SECTORS -


LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by their percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Media, Healthcare and Utilities continue from our previous review with Restaurants replacing Transportation. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Autos, Metals, Building Materials, and Chemicals remain from two weeks ago, with Construction replacing Autos. 

- COMPANIES -



Source: Japan Analytics

COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. UUUM (3990 JP) is currently the most 'extreme' positive outlier, and Welcia (3141 JP) the most 'extreme' negative outlier

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Tech[nical] Rebound

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/837/original/2019-01-18_11-35-42.png?1547778954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75837"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.
RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. 
RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4908" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15862" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13435" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1">Bandai Namco (7832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote (7532 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/838/original/2019-01-18_11-36-19.png?1547778995" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75838"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/839/original/2019-01-18_11-37-01.png?1547779035" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75839"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/840/original/2019-01-18_11-37-37.png?1547779070" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75840"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/841/original/2019-01-18_11-38-07.png?1547779100" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75841"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-score-update-overbought-and-oversold-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25849">Insight</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/842/original/2019-01-18_11-39-56.png?1547779218" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75842"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/843/original/2019-01-18_11-42-06.png?1547779350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75843"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.
NB - All data is as of January 17th close.
</div>



Source: Japan Analytics

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.
RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. 
RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been Descente (8114 JP),  Ariake Japan (2815 JP), Fancl (4921 JP), Bandai Namco (7832 JP), Don Quijote (7532 JP), and Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP).





Source: Japan Analytics

RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been LINE Corp (3938 JP) - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last Insight, and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).


Source: Japan Analytics

In the DETAIL section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.
NB - All data is as of January 17th close.


Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://discover.decathlon.fr/conception" target="_blank">Decathlon</a> is a category killer sans pareil and will finally open its first store in Japan in March. If Decathlon implements its store roll out well, the French sports retailer will cause a major disruption in Japan's sports market.
Large domestic sports retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13955" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13955:1">Xebio Holdings (8281 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17762" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17762:1">Alpen Co Ltd (3028 JP)</a> will be gearing up to compete in some categories but are far behind in private label development and cost performance, and the major sports brands will have to accelerate their plans for retail stores while reviewing pricing (downwards). Sports firms like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14244" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14244:1">Mizuno (8022 JP)</a>, with relatively low perceived brand value, could face challenges in the newly polarised market that will emerge from Decathlon's entry.
A major source of competition for Decathlon will come from a more unlikely retailer: the uniforms to outdoor apparel/gear firm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman (7564 JP)</a>. While still small, Workman is already manoeuvring to hinder Decathlon's growth in Japan, and looks like having establishment backing to do so – and echoes the growth of Uniqlo after Gap entered the Japanese market in the 1990s and the rise and rise of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20386" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> after IKEA's launch in 2006.
Both Gap and IKEA have relatively small operations in Japan today compared to their early potential. Decathlon will need to expand rapidly if it is to gain sufficient share to stop Workman emerging with a clear lead in its market.

Decathlon is a category killer sans pareil and will finally open its first store in Japan in March. If Decathlon implements its store roll out well, the French sports retailer will cause a major disruption in Japan's sports market.
Large domestic sports retailers like Xebio Holdings (8281 JP) and Alpen Co Ltd (3028 JP) will be gearing up to compete in some categories but are far behind in private label development and cost performance, and the major sports brands will have to accelerate their plans for retail stores while reviewing pricing (downwards). Sports firms like Mizuno (8022 JP), with relatively low perceived brand value, could face challenges in the newly polarised market that will emerge from Decathlon's entry.
A major source of competition for Decathlon will come from a more unlikely retailer: the uniforms to outdoor apparel/gear firm, Workman (7564 JP). While still small, Workman is already manoeuvring to hinder Decathlon's growth in Japan, and looks like having establishment backing to do so – and echoes the growth of Uniqlo after Gap entered the Japanese market in the 1990s and the rise and rise of Nitori (9843 JP) after IKEA's launch in 2006.
Both Gap and IKEA have relatively small operations in Japan today compared to their early potential. Decathlon will need to expand rapidly if it is to gain sufficient share to stop Workman emerging with a clear lead in its market. 

Workman Vs. Decathlon: The Upcoming Battle for Japan's Sports Market

MARKET COMPOSITE
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/380/original/2019-01-13_13-31-55.png?1547353946" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75380"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
NEW YEAR RALLY - From the December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the weighted sum of moving averages have recovered to 14% by number and 20% by value - just on the 'buying zone' line. As we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-2018-market-review-bear-market-rally-ahead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26917">expected</a>, the Total Market Value has rallied 8.7% and looks to have some further to run, especially if the Yen reverses some of its recent strength. The Bank of Japan provided a 'helping hand' on both 4th and 10th January, the only days this year so far on which the market declined. 
<hr>
SECTORS
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/383/original/2019-01-13_15-22-47.png?1547360595" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75383"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain, predictably, domestic and defensive - REITs, Information Technology, Media and Utilities continue from our previous review with Healthcare and Transportation replacing Food, Beverages and Tobacco and Internet Content &amp; Services. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen. Banks, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment, and Chemicals remain from 23rd December Moving Average Outliers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-moving-average-outliers-year-end-blues" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26895">Insight</a>, with Building Materials replacing Non-Bank Finance. Over the last trading five days, however, there has been a noticeable reversal with Autos, Electrical Equipment, and Machinery all over '55' while Other Consumer Products, Restaurants, Telecommunications and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco are all below '40'.
<hr>
COMPANIES
COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/382/original/2019-01-13_15-19-43.png?1547360415" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75382"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
THE +/-100% CLUB - The number of extreme negative outliers reached a peak for 1,352 on December 25th and has since returned to 'normal' levels. We suggested in the previous Insight in this series that such an extreme number of extremes was a signal of a short-term bottom, which, so far, has proved to be correct.
<div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 
</div>

MARKET COMPOSITE

Source: Japan Analytics
NEW YEAR RALLY - From the December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the weighted sum of moving averages have recovered to 14% by number and 20% by value - just on the 'buying zone' line. As we expected, the Total Market Value has rallied 8.7% and looks to have some further to run, especially if the Yen reverses some of its recent strength. The Bank of Japan provided a 'helping hand' on both 4th and 10th January, the only days this year so far on which the market declined. 

SECTORS

LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain, predictably, domestic and defensive - REITs, Information Technology, Media and Utilities continue from our previous review with Healthcare and Transportation replacing Food, Beverages and Tobacco and Internet Content &amp; Services. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen. Banks, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment, and Chemicals remain from 23rd December Moving Average Outliers Insight, with Building Materials replacing Non-Bank Finance. Over the last trading five days, however, there has been a noticeable reversal with Autos, Electrical Equipment, and Machinery all over '55' while Other Consumer Products, Restaurants, Telecommunications and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco are all below '40'.

COMPANIES
COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 

Source: Japan Analytics
THE +/-100% CLUB - The number of extreme negative outliers reached a peak for 1,352 on December 25th and has since returned to 'normal' levels. We suggested in the previous Insight in this series that such an extreme number of extremes was a signal of a short-term bottom, which, so far, has proved to be correct.

In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 


Japan: Moving Average Outliers - New Year Rally

Japan

WORKMAN CO., LTD. designs, produces, and retails work uniforms and related goods including work gloves and safety shoes.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores located throughout eastern Japan.

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Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)

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