Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Unilever/MICC | most of Ben & Jerry’s claims against Unilever dismissed • Arcadis | combined stake friendly foundations edge higher, complicating WSP approach • E-commerce & Logistics | Shein Hong Kong IPO: growth stalls, valuation compressed • Corporate agenda| week 35 - 37</li></ul>

In this edition: • Unilever/MICC | most of Ben & Jerry’s claims against Unilever dismissed • Arcadis | combined stake friendly foundations edge higher, complicating WSP approach • E-commerce & Logistics | Shein Hong Kong IPO: growth stalls, valuation compressed • Corporate agenda| week 35 - 37

WSP Global Inc - What's News in Amsterdam

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>WSP has walked after Arcadis refused to engage, despite room to improve its €51.50 proposal; ownership, culture and independence may have mattered more than we assumed.</li>
<li>Our €39 break value proved broadly accurate, but we assigned too little probability to that outcome. At €40.22, most of the takeover premium has disappeared.</li>
<li>We recommend LONG: our €47 standalone value offers 16.9% upside, with the 29 September Capital Markets Day the immediate test of Arcadis' standalone plan.</li>
</ul>


WSP has walked after Arcadis refused to engage, despite room to improve its €51.50 proposal; ownership, culture and independence may have mattered more than we assumed.
Our €39 break value proved broadly accurate, but we assigned too little probability to that outcome. At €40.22, most of the takeover premium has disappeared.
We recommend LONG: our €47 standalone value offers 16.9% upside, with the 29 September Capital Markets Day the immediate test of Arcadis' standalone plan.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Canada

WSP Global Inc. offers engineering services.  The Company offers professional services in the areas of construction, energy, the environment, mining, municipal infrastructure, project management, telecommunications, and transportation.

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WSP Global Inc (WSP CN)

WSP Global Inc - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Unilever/MICC | most of Ben & Jerry’s claims against Unilever dismissed • Arcadis | combined stake friendly foundations...

The IDEA!

WSP/Arcadis: Why €51.50 Wasn't Enough

WSP has walked and Arcadis has lost most of its bid premium. We revisit what went wrong, why ownership may have mattered, and what comes next.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora:...

The IDEA!

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

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