Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Four weeks ago, I gave the warning that H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.</p><p>In the two weeks from before to after Chinese New Year, the average sector spread moved about 70bp tighter, but the average spread moved only 42bp tighter.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Last<br>Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Previous<br>Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>3wks<br>Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>4wks<br>Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.55%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.32%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.62%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.43%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.64%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.98%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.59%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.10%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.62%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.73%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.45%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.52%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.27%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.26%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.62%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.48%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.30%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 3.08%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.57%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.66%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.95%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.99%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.06%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.45%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.18%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.92%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.41%</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p>This week, the data is a bit cut short as the China Securities Depository and Clearing has not reported Southbound position data since the 10th as far as I can tell. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>There were 75 recommendations last week.  The 32 short recommendations lost an average of 48bp, slightly underperforming the market as a whole. The 43 long recommendations averaged gains of 50bp over the two weeks, outperforming the market as a whole. The combined total package was up 0.084% over the two weeks. </p></div><div><div><h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3></div></div><div>
<p>The past two weeks straddling Chinese New Year saw mixed movement in H/A spreads, with 63 of 98 liquid spreads (64%) narrowing an average of 42bp. They are on average 92bp tighter over four weeks. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/832/original/Screenshot+2021-02-20+at+5.17.17+PM.png?1613812651" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189832"></figure></section><hr>
</div><div><div><h3>Consumer Sector</h3></div></div><div>
<p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 1.35% over the two weeks, but with some bumpiness. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> saw its spread move 3.1% wider over the two weeks and is now 7.1% wider over four weeks and it is no longer the narrowest liquid H/A spread in the sector, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> taking its place moving 2.4% in the two weeks and 10.7% in four.</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Two weeks ago, I recommended staying long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A. </p>
<p>Those four trades gained an average of 1.67% in spread terms on the week.</p>
</div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/833/original/Screenshot+2021-02-20+at+5.28.45+PM.png?1613813350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189833"></figure></section><p>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</p>

Four weeks ago, I gave the warning that H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.In the two weeks from before to after Chinese New Year, the average sector spread moved about 70bp tighter, but the average spread moved only 42bp tighter.

Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
-  1.20%
+ 2.55%
+ 2.32%
-  2.62%


Energy
+ 1.43%
-  1.64%
+ 1.98%
-  0.59%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.10%
+ 0.29%
+ 0.62%
-  1.73%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 1.45%
-  1.52%
+ 2.29%
-  0.27%


Industrials
+ 0.26%
-  0.62%
+ 2.48%
-  1.30%


Materials
+ 3.08%
-  0.57%
+ 2.66%
-  0.95%


Utilities
+ 0.99%
+ 0.25%
+ 1.06%
-  2.45%


Sector Average
+ 0.87%
-  0.18%
+ 1.92%
-  1.41%

This week, the data is a bit cut short as the China Securities Depository and Clearing has not reported Southbound position data since the 10th as far as I can tell. There were 75 recommendations last week.  The 32 short recommendations lost an average of 48bp, slightly underperforming the market as a whole. The 43 long recommendations averaged gains of 50bp over the two weeks, outperforming the market as a whole. The combined total package was up 0.084% over the two weeks. The H/A Spread Market
The past two weeks straddling Chinese New Year saw mixed movement in H/A spreads, with 63 of 98 liquid spreads (64%) narrowing an average of 42bp. They are on average 92bp tighter over four weeks. 

Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 1.35% over the two weeks, but with some bumpiness. 
BYD (1211 HK) saw its spread move 3.1% wider over the two weeks and is now 7.1% wider over four weeks and it is no longer the narrowest liquid H/A spread in the sector, with Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) taking its place moving 2.4% in the two weeks and 10.7% in four.

Two weeks ago, I recommended staying long the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), and short BYD (1211 HK), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A. 
Those four trades gained an average of 1.67% in spread terms on the week.
For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: High Volatility in Materials and Industrials and Spreads Over Lunar New Year

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Joinn Laboratories China  Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joinn-laboratories-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31498:1" rel="noopener">Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK)</a> is a global contract research organisation (CRO). JOINN is the largest CRO in non-clinical drug safety assessment in China with a revenue market share of 15.5% in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/joinn-laboratories-ipo-initiation-on-demand-science" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47482" rel="noopener">JOINN Laboratories IPO Initiation: On-Demand Science</a>, we stated that JOINN potentially gives investors another avenue to gain exposure to the China CRO industry. On balance, we concluded that JOINN’s fundamentals are attractive as the positives outweigh the negatives. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/joinn-laboratories-ipo-phip-points-to-progress" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47985" rel="noopener">JOINN Laboratories IPO: PHIP Points to Progress</a>, we noted that the 9M20 results reinforce our belief that JOINN is worth a closer look at and has attractive fundamentals. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/joinn-laboratories-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48172" rel="noopener">JOINN Laboratories IPO: Valuation First Look</a>, we took a first look at the potential AH discount range for JOINN's H-share listing. </p>
<p>JOINN has launched its Hong Kong IPO at an indicative price range of HK$133-151 per H-share to raise net proceeds of HK$5,909.8 million ($762 million), at the mid-point of the price range. Ten cornerstone investors will subscribe for $268 million of the offer shares (33.8% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors include OrbiMed Funds, Lake Bleu Capital, China Structural Reform Fund, China Pinnacle Equity Management, Sequoia Capital, Janchor Partners, CRF Investment,  Carmignac Funds, Octagon Capital and Valliance Fund.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, the combination of a reasonable AH discount and relative valuation suggests the proposed H-share price range is attractive, in our view.</p></div>
</div>

Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK) is a global contract research organisation (CRO). JOINN is the largest CRO in non-clinical drug safety assessment in China with a revenue market share of 15.5% in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
In JOINN Laboratories IPO Initiation: On-Demand Science, we stated that JOINN potentially gives investors another avenue to gain exposure to the China CRO industry. On balance, we concluded that JOINN’s fundamentals are attractive as the positives outweigh the negatives. In JOINN Laboratories IPO: PHIP Points to Progress, we noted that the 9M20 results reinforce our belief that JOINN is worth a closer look at and has attractive fundamentals. In JOINN Laboratories IPO: Valuation First Look, we took a first look at the potential AH discount range for JOINN's H-share listing. 
JOINN has launched its Hong Kong IPO at an indicative price range of HK$133-151 per H-share to raise net proceeds of HK$5,909.8 million ($762 million), at the mid-point of the price range. Ten cornerstone investors will subscribe for $268 million of the offer shares (33.8% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors include OrbiMed Funds, Lake Bleu Capital, China Structural Reform Fund, China Pinnacle Equity Management, Sequoia Capital, Janchor Partners, CRF Investment,  Carmignac Funds, Octagon Capital and Valliance Fund.
Overall, the combination of a reasonable AH discount and relative valuation suggests the proposed H-share price range is attractive, in our view.


JOINN Laboratories IPO: Valuation Insights

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>Joinn Lab, a China-based niche market leader in the drug safety segment, launched the book building to raise up to USD 843m to list in Hong Kong.  </p><p>In our previous note, we discussed that Joinn Lab's business segment. We note that it has a strong presence in the drug safety segment, particularly the IND application for biologic candidates thanks to its long history in the market and high standard of lab facilities and operation. We think the company has strong growth ahead, driven by the Wuzhou breeding facility, Suzhou lab and California lab in the next two years, followed by expansion in Chongqing and Guangzhou in the longer term. </p><p>We are of the view that investors would like to pay a premium for the company's strong leadership in the niche market and high growth ahead, but the premium will be offset by its smaller size of operation compared to other CRO players.</p><p>In this note, we look at the deal term. We think there is clear upside from the high end. The line-up of cornerstone investors is strong. There will also be plenty of shares for institutional investors even if clawback is triggered. We will participate in the deal.</p><h2>Our previous coverage on Joinn Lab</h2><ul><li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/joinn-lab-a-h-leader-in-the-niche-drug-safety-cro-segment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joinn Lab (昭衍新药) A+H: Leader in niche drug safety CRO segment</a></p></li></ul>

Joinn Lab, a China-based niche market leader in the drug safety segment, launched the book building to raise up to USD 843m to list in Hong Kong.  In our previous note, we discussed that Joinn Lab's business segment. We note that it has a strong presence in the drug safety segment, particularly the IND application for biologic candidates thanks to its long history in the market and high standard of lab facilities and operation. We think the company has strong growth ahead, driven by the Wuzhou breeding facility, Suzhou lab and California lab in the next two years, followed by expansion in Chongqing and Guangzhou in the longer term. We are of the view that investors would like to pay a premium for the company's strong leadership in the niche market and high growth ahead, but the premium will be offset by its smaller size of operation compared to other CRO players.In this note, we look at the deal term. We think there is clear upside from the high end. The line-up of cornerstone investors is strong. There will also be plenty of shares for institutional investors even if clawback is triggered. We will participate in the deal.Our previous coverage on Joinn LabJoinn Lab (昭衍新药) A+H: Leader in niche drug safety CRO segment

Joinn Lab (昭衍新药) A+H: Visible Upside

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<p>On January 31<sup>st</sup>,2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joinn-laboratories-china-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28273:1" rel="noopener">Joinn Laboratories China Co-A (603127 CH)</a> successfully passed the listing hearing of HKEX, and will become the fourth CRO company with "A+H" listing after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaron-beijing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28428:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd-H (3759 HK),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-tigermed-consulting-co-ltd-1008d609-73bd-4d76-8315-b29502a448ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29212:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347 HK)</a>, further enhancing its global influence while broadening its financing channels. Meanwhile, JOINN recently released the performance announcement in 2020. The net income attributed to shareholders in 2020 is expected to be RMB303 million to RMB322 million, up 69.9% to 80.3% YoY. Net income after deducting non-recurring gains and losses could reach RMB 275 million to RMB293 million, up 77.5% to 89.6% YoY. The performance beat the market expectations.</p>

On January 31st,2021, Joinn Laboratories China Co-A (603127 CH) successfully passed the listing hearing of HKEX, and will become the fourth CRO company with "A+H" listing after Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd-H (3759 HK),WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK) and Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347 HK), further enhancing its global influence while broadening its financing channels. Meanwhile, JOINN recently released the performance announcement in 2020. The net income attributed to shareholders in 2020 is expected to be RMB303 million to RMB322 million, up 69.9% to 80.3% YoY. Net income after deducting non-recurring gains and losses could reach RMB 275 million to RMB293 million, up 77.5% to 89.6% YoY. The performance beat the market expectations.

Pre-IPO Joinn Laboratories - The Future Performance Is Worth Looking Forward To

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joinn-laboratories-china-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28273:1" rel="noopener">Joinn Laboratories China Co-A (603127 CH)</a> is a global contract research organisation (CRO). JOINN is the largest CRO in non-clinical drug safety assessment in China with a revenue market share of 15.5% in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. JOINN is seeking to raise as much as $600 million through a Hong Kong IPO, according to press reports.</p><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/joinn-laboratories-ipo-initiation-on-demand-science" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47482" rel="noopener">JOINN Laboratories IPO Initiation: On-Demand Science</a>, we stated that JOINN potentially gives investors another avenue to gain exposure to the China CRO industry. On balance, we concluded that JOINN’s fundamentals are attractive as the positives outweigh the negatives. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/joinn-laboratories-ipo-phip-points-to-progress" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47985" rel="noopener">JOINN Laboratories IPO: PHIP Points to Progress</a>, we noted that the 9M20 results reinforce our belief that JOINN is worth a closer look and has attractive fundamentals. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>As is typical of Chinese-listed issuers floating in Hong Kong, JOINN’s H-shares will be offered on a discount to its A-shares (AH discount). In this note, we take a first look at the potential AH discount range for JOINN's H-share listing. </p></div>
</div>

Joinn Laboratories China Co-A (603127 CH) is a global contract research organisation (CRO). JOINN is the largest CRO in non-clinical drug safety assessment in China with a revenue market share of 15.5% in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. JOINN is seeking to raise as much as $600 million through a Hong Kong IPO, according to press reports.
In JOINN Laboratories IPO Initiation: On-Demand Science, we stated that JOINN potentially gives investors another avenue to gain exposure to the China CRO industry. On balance, we concluded that JOINN’s fundamentals are attractive as the positives outweigh the negatives. In JOINN Laboratories IPO: PHIP Points to Progress, we noted that the 9M20 results reinforce our belief that JOINN is worth a closer look and has attractive fundamentals. 
As is typical of Chinese-listed issuers floating in Hong Kong, JOINN’s H-shares will be offered on a discount to its A-shares (AH discount). In this note, we take a first look at the potential AH discount range for JOINN's H-share listing. 


JOINN Laboratories IPO: Valuation First Look

China

WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces biological agents, antibodies, biological diagnostic reagents, and other products. WuXi AppTec also provides biological analysis, technical study, and other services.

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WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)

Quiddity Weekly H/A: High Volatility in Materials and Industrials and Spreads Over Lunar New Year

H/A spreads have been reasonably volatile over the CNY period, but again they net narrowed over two weeks. There are still several sectors where...

Travis Lundy

JOINN Laboratories IPO: Valuation Insights

JOINN has launched its HK IPO at an indicative price range of HK$133-151 per H-share. The combination of a reasonable AH discount and relative...

Arun George

Joinn Lab (昭衍新药) A+H: Visible Upside

There is clear upside from the high end with strong line-up of cornerstone investors. There will also be plenty of shares for institutional...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Joinn Laboratories - The Future Performance Is Worth Looking Forward To

This article analyzed JOINN Laboratories in terms of market potential, orders in hand and newly signed orders, equity structure and talent pool,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

JOINN Laboratories IPO: Valuation First Look

JOINN is seeking to raise as much as $600 million through a HK IPO, according to press reports. In this note, we take a first look at the potential...

Arun George

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