HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>WuXi AppTec’s 2023 results were disappointing. The decline in performance in 23H2 was quite severe. 2024 performance guidance could be meaningless because the biggest concern now is the geopolitical conflicts.</li>
<li>If the bill is passed, valuation logic would completely change - not based on DCF/PE, but on PB, market value falling below RMB100 billion. We cannot rule out another privatisation.</li>
<li>We hope that WuXi AppTec can prepare contingency plans for the worst-case scenario that may occur, rather than simply denying or mitigating the impact of BIOSECURE Act on the Company</li>
</ul>


WuXi AppTec’s 2023 results were disappointing. The decline in performance in 23H2 was quite severe. 2024 performance guidance could be meaningless because the biggest concern now is the geopolitical conflicts.
If the bill is passed, valuation logic would completely change - not based on DCF/PE, but on PB, market value falling below RMB100 billion. We cannot rule out another privatisation.
We hope that WuXi AppTec can prepare contingency plans for the worst-case scenario that may occur, rather than simply denying or mitigating the impact of BIOSECURE Act on the Company


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 2023 Results - Time to Prepare for the Worst

<ul>
<li>A Senate committee moved the bill (S.3558) forward that would prohibit pharmaceutical companies from using foreign service providers like WuXi AppTec and its subsidiaries. However, rational voices are still expected.</li>
<li>Seemingly conflicting proposals are mostly “noise” and disturbances to stock prices. This means in the future, we‘ll see stock prices move sharply again due to latest developments on these bills.</li>
<li>WuXi AppTec should have "bottom-line thinking" and prepare some "backup solutions".Investors don’t need to be overly pessimistic, because when global capital flows reverse, no one will mind these bills anymore.</li>
</ul>


A Senate committee moved the bill (S.3558) forward that would prohibit pharmaceutical companies from using foreign service providers like WuXi AppTec and its subsidiaries. However, rational voices are still expected.
Seemingly conflicting proposals are mostly “noise” and disturbances to stock prices. This means in the future, we‘ll see stock prices move sharply again due to latest developments on these bills.
WuXi AppTec should have "bottom-line thinking" and prepare some "backup solutions".Investors don’t need to be overly pessimistic, because when global capital flows reverse, no one will mind these bills anymore.


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - Updates About the BIOSECURE Act and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>Based on the latest updates, it's still uncertain to see a positive turnaround.There've been no effective ways to evade.Debate about restricting Chinese biopharmaceuticals has never gone away in US politics.</li>
<li>Nobody can say with 100% certainty whether the Bill will be passed/how much impact it will have. Until the dust settles, any rebound in share prices is difficult to sustain.</li>
<li>The market is preparing for the worst-case scenario, but if the final Bill is less stringent than expected, shares of WuXi AppTec and its subsidiaries would rebound.Here're different bottom-fishing strategies.</li>
</ul>


Based on the latest updates, it's still uncertain to see a positive turnaround.There've been no effective ways to evade.Debate about restricting Chinese biopharmaceuticals has never gone away in US politics.
Nobody can say with 100% certainty whether the Bill will be passed/how much impact it will have. Until the dust settles, any rebound in share prices is difficult to sustain.
The market is preparing for the worst-case scenario, but if the final Bill is less stringent than expected, shares of WuXi AppTec and its subsidiaries would rebound.Here're different bottom-fishing strategies.


Latest Impact of the US Biosecure Act on WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio/WuXi XDC - China CXO Really Game Over?

<ul>
<li>Recent business updates of WuXi Bio led to a decline in WuXi AppTec's share price and changed investors' expectations for CXO. Now is the time to adjust forecasts.</li>
<li>We analyzed the growth rate of various business of WuXi AppTec in 2024. In a neutral scenario, growth next year could fall short of management's guidance.Reversal in 2025 is uncertain.</li>
<li>If WuXi AppTec "unexpectedly" receives blockbuster orders, which are large enough to hedge against the downward trend of WuXi AppTec’s other businesses, then it will help to change performance expectations.</li>
</ul>


Recent business updates of WuXi Bio led to a decline in WuXi AppTec's share price and changed investors' expectations for CXO. Now is the time to adjust forecasts.
We analyzed the growth rate of various business of WuXi AppTec in 2024. In a neutral scenario, growth next year could fall short of management's guidance.Reversal in 2025 is uncertain.
If WuXi AppTec "unexpectedly" receives blockbuster orders, which are large enough to hedge against the downward trend of WuXi AppTec’s other businesses, then it will help to change performance expectations.


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - How Bad Things Could Be?

<ul>
<li>The approval rate of Draft Bill is very low. So, it's more of a “strangulation” of investment sentiment. But considering the 2024 US presidential election, similar negative proposals may resurface. </li>
<li>WuXi AppTec has little control over the entire situation.There's “valuation discount” for China CXOs due to geopolitical conflicts. It’s difficult to completely rule out the possibility of “deliberate short selling”. </li>
<li>If look deeper, considering "sensitive situations" at present, to some extent, we may have already been in a financial war.The goal of short selling is to pick up cheap chips. </li>
</ul>


The approval rate of Draft Bill is very low. So, it's more of a “strangulation” of investment sentiment. But considering the 2024 US presidential election, similar negative proposals may resurface. 
WuXi AppTec has little control over the entire situation.There's “valuation discount” for China CXOs due to geopolitical conflicts. It’s difficult to completely rule out the possibility of “deliberate short selling”. 
If look deeper, considering "sensitive situations" at present, to some extent, we may have already been in a financial war.The goal of short selling is to pick up cheap chips. 


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - Behind the Plunge Is a War

China

WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces biological agents, antibodies, biological diagnostic reagents, and other products. WuXi AppTec also provides biological analysis, technical study, and other services.

WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)