Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.</li>
<li>The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.</li>
<li>Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.
The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.
Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.


Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japanese SME segment is filled with its unique structural challenges, which provides opportunities for "pick and shovel" suppliers;</li>
<li>Many of these SME backers (including oRo, which we covered previously) have generated tremendous shareholder value in the past and may continue to do so while addressing clients' key pain points alongside multiple long-term tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese SME segment is filled with its unique structural challenges, which provides opportunities for "pick and shovel" suppliers;
Many of these SME backers (including oRo, which we covered previously) have generated tremendous shareholder value in the past and may continue to do so while addressing clients' key pain points alongside multiple long-term tailwinds.


US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferguson-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28304:1" rel="noopener">Ferguson PLC (FERG LN)</a> is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal year ended July 31, 2019, the UK accounted for only about 10.2% of revenues and about 4% of trading profits, with the balance coming mainly from the USA, and to a much smaller extent, from Canada.Despite the Company’s predominant focus in the USA, it has traditionally traded at the more modest multiples of British distributors. On June 13, 2019, U.S. activist investment firm Trian Fund Management announced it had acquired a 5.98% position in FERG LN though affiliates including T1F LN, then worth approximately £736 million.Trian stated it believes Ferguson is an attractive business that trades at a discount to comparable U.S. peers. It also said it looks forward to working with Ferguson’s management to explore and implement initiatives that it believes can create long-term shareholder value.This research piece looks, from an event-driven point of view, at Ferguson’s business, valuation and potential catalyst to address any undervaluation.

Ferguson PLC (FERG LN) is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal year ended July 31, 2019, the UK accounted for only about 10.2% of revenues and about 4% of trading profits, with the balance coming mainly from the USA, and to a much smaller extent, from Canada.Despite the Company’s predominant focus in the USA, it has traditionally traded at the more modest multiples of British distributors. On June 13, 2019, U.S. activist investment firm Trian Fund Management announced it had acquired a 5.98% position in FERG LN though affiliates including T1F LN, then worth approximately £736 million.Trian stated it believes Ferguson is an attractive business that trades at a discount to comparable U.S. peers. It also said it looks forward to working with Ferguson’s management to explore and implement initiatives that it believes can create long-term shareholder value.This research piece looks, from an event-driven point of view, at Ferguson’s business, valuation and potential catalyst to address any undervaluation.

Ferguson Plc (FERG LN) – Plumbing for Value

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<div class="content-highlight"><h2>Solid demand and robust results from most firms not named GE.</h2></div><hr>Chief executive officers of some of the most well-known, global diversified industrial firms gathered in Coral Gables, Florida, this week to address analysts at the annual Electrical Products Group conference. While the conference lacked most of the heated exchanges of some years past, these multi-industrial leaders did touch on several broad themes, including robust demand leading to resilient organic growth, the muted impact from tariffs, as well as strong digitization trends sweeping the industry. We had the opportunity to press these leaders on several issues like portfolio optimization, both from the M&amp;A and divestiture side, as well as to query what factors lead to strong switching costs in the aftermarket, or how differentiated technology intangibles lead to securing a firm's installed equipment or software base. After reviewing our coverage, our current top picks among the diversified industrials we cover include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26784" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26784:1">DowDuPont Inc (DWDP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9642" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9642:1">Emerson Electric Co (EMR US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6747:1">Johnson Controls (JCI US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14866" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14866:1">3 M Co (MMM US)</a>.

Solid demand and robust results from most firms not named GE.Chief executive officers of some of the most well-known, global diversified industrial firms gathered in Coral Gables, Florida, this week to address analysts at the annual Electrical Products Group conference. While the conference lacked most of the heated exchanges of some years past, these multi-industrial leaders did touch on several broad themes, including robust demand leading to resilient organic growth, the muted impact from tariffs, as well as strong digitization trends sweeping the industry. We had the opportunity to press these leaders on several issues like portfolio optimization, both from the M&amp;A and divestiture side, as well as to query what factors lead to strong switching costs in the aftermarket, or how differentiated technology intangibles lead to securing a firm's installed equipment or software base. After reviewing our coverage, our current top picks among the diversified industrials we cover include DowDuPont Inc (DWDP US), Emerson Electric Co (EMR US), Johnson Controls (JCI US), and 3 M Co (MMM US).

Morningstar's Key Takeaways From the 2019 EPG Conference

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/132/original/2019-03-25_18-58-11.png?1553507902" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83132"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">S</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">oftbank Group (9984 JP)</a>) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/206/original/2019-03-25_17-46-58.png?1553565764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'.


Source: Japan Analytics
There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including Softbank Group (9984 JP)) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'. 

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

United States

W.W. Grainger, Inc. distributes maintenance, repair and operating supplies, and related information to the commercial, industrial, contractor, and institutional markets in North America.  The Company's products include motors, HVAC equipment, lighting, hand and power tools, pumps, and electrical equipment.

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Ww Grainger Inc (GWW US)

Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

Bear market rally remains in play if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on $SPX, and if $162-$163 holds on $IWM. Longer-term, this is still a bear...

Vermilion Research

Top Picks: Two More Japanese SME Backers

The Japanese SME segment is filled with its unique structural challenges, which provides opportunities for "pick and shovel" suppliers.

Steven Chen

Ferguson Plc (FERG LN) – Plumbing for Value

Ferguson PLC (FERG LN) is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal...

John DeMasi

Morningstar's Key Takeaways From the 2019 EPG Conference

Solid demand and robust results from most firms not named GE.Chief executive officers of some of the most well-known, global diversified industrial...

Morningstar, Inc.

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33...

Campbell Gunn

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