Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We have been bullish on Wynn Macau Ltd long term and remain so. But short term we believe several pillars of our bull scenario have shown cracks that have shown up in CNY results.</li>
<li>VIP and premium mass player segments expected to begin returning in meaningful numbers first have not yet materialized.</li>
<li>We see a 4-month time window in which a short play might look attractive for those with the risk profile for a round trip play before an expected upside later this year.</li>
</ul>


We have been bullish on Wynn Macau Ltd long term and remain so. But short term we believe several pillars of our bull scenario have shown cracks that have shown up in CNY results.
VIP and premium mass player segments expected to begin returning in meaningful numbers first have not yet materialized.
We see a 4-month time window in which a short play might look attractive for those with the risk profile for a round trip play before an expected upside later this year.


Wynn Macau Ltd: A Short Play, Short Term, as CNY Results Disappoint

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kerry Logistics, Sanken Electric, Vocus Comms, Toa Oil, ThaiBev, Sharp

<div>
<p>A double-dose of StubWorld this week ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)</a> six-month outperformance versus 72%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a> pitches the current share price at a premium to its NAV.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on Wynn are the updated setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


A double-dose of StubWorld this week ...



Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) six-month outperformance versus 72%-held Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK) pitches the current share price at a premium to its NAV.



Preceding my comments on Wynn are the updated setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Wynn Trading At A Premium To NAV

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Current investment levels in Macau Gaming stocks are low compared to history across all of our ownership measures.  Declines that started in 2014 were accentuated by the COVID crisis, as EM funds repositioned in to safer corners of the market.  From a positioning perspective, this leaves plenty of upside should a change in sentiment occur.  Active EM exposure is now close to a 10-year low, there are many previous investors sitting on the sidelines and current investors are far from overstretched.</p><p>At present though, EM investors bullish on the fundamental case for Macau Gaming stocks should be aware that this is largely an anti-consensus view.  74% of EM active funds do not have exposure and neither does the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.  If it does pays off, it will provide valuable outperformance against both the benchmark and the active peer group in the year to come.  </p><p><em>The analysis looks at the collective allocations in Macau Gaming stocks from a pool of 243 actively managed Global Emerging Market funds, with combined AUM of $460bn,</em></p>

Current investment levels in Macau Gaming stocks are low compared to history across all of our ownership measures.  Declines that started in 2014 were accentuated by the COVID crisis, as EM funds repositioned in to safer corners of the market.  From a positioning perspective, this leaves plenty of upside should a change in sentiment occur.  Active EM exposure is now close to a 10-year low, there are many previous investors sitting on the sidelines and current investors are far from overstretched.At present though, EM investors bullish on the fundamental case for Macau Gaming stocks should be aware that this is largely an anti-consensus view.  74% of EM active funds do not have exposure and neither does the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.  If it does pays off, it will provide valuable outperformance against both the benchmark and the active peer group in the year to come.  The analysis looks at the collective allocations in Macau Gaming stocks from a pool of 243 actively managed Global Emerging Market funds, with combined AUM of $460bn,

Macau Gaming:  Beaten up Sector Has Potential to Reverse

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-14882'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-473'>Wynn Macau Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-14152'>Yanlord Land</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-5519'>Suzhou Boamax Tech Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Seazen (Formerly Future Land)Wynn Macau LtdYanlord LandSuzhou Boamax Tech Group

Morning Views Asia: Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Wynn Macau Ltd, Yanlord Land

Hong Kong

Wynn Macau, Limited owns and operates Wynn Macau, a destination casino resort currently featuring hotel rooms and suites, a casino, casual and fine dining restaurants, retail space and leisure amenities.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)

Wynn Macau Ltd: A Short Play, Short Term, as CNY Results Disappoint

Short term disappointment with Chinese New Year arrivals suggest recovery is further away than anticipated and provides an opportunistic short play.

Howard J Klein

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kerry Logistics, Sanken Electric, Vocus Comms, Toa Oil, ThaiBev, Sharp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Wynn Trading At A Premium To NAV

Geographic exposure will be key in post-COVID recovery. My forward bet lies with Asia-Pacific gaming stocks - especially in Macau - to outperform...

David Blennerhassett

Macau Gaming: Beaten up Sector Has Potential to Reverse

As sentiment begins to turn in Macau Gaming stocks, Global EM investors are positioned at their lowest levels in a decade.

Steven Holden

Morning Views Asia: Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Wynn Macau Ltd, Yanlord Land

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)